Unexpectedly, Javier Milei won the presidency in Argentina. I'd been following this story because it's interesting to see a Milton-Friedman-style libertarian (or at least someone who identifies himself that way) suddenly get put in charge of an ultra-statist, pretty-screwed-up country.
I hope that he does really well and turns Argentina into a libertarian paradise where I can move someday. But I expect that it's going to be a huge disaster. Milei appears to be a bomb-thrower (like Trump or Bolsonaro) rather than a serious policy wonk, which absolutely will not help him now that he's the one in power. When he tries ending popular programs and firing government employees, people will riot. If I was him, I'd get a diverse group of really serious experts (mostly but not entirely libertarian-leaning), and see if they can come up with some sane policy changes which won't cause riots.
Any Argentinians here with an opinion? I'm not very familiar with Argentina, and I've only read a handful of articles on Milei, so my knowledge is only surface-level.
Regardless of how Milei pictures himself, his agenda is a classic Austrian & Chicago schools of economics, not a libertarian.
Argentina is over the top with debt, they are in hyperinflation (depending on your definition of choice for that) and is a country that is balancing precariously the need to pay in dollar with el "cepo" to the exports (yes, you are reading correctly, a country which taxes exports... what could go wrong). El "cepo" forces to buy pesos with US dollars at an unrealistic change rate.
He has moderated the song - victory was not that surprising - but the general direction of travel is:
- Get quick cash nationalising the jewels of the crown, such as YPF (oil company).
- Slashing through subsidies and handouts to nearly everything, including the massive transfers to the "provincias" (provinces).
- And the biggest gamble: dollarising the economy and pretty much removing the Central Bank of Argentina.
My view: Argentina needs to do something. Years and years of unproductive spending and massive public debt are creating all short of problems - a country that should've been rich, has around 30% of poverty, that includes people who work and are still poor.
Will Mileis programme work? If it is implemented with a mastery that I am not sure Milei's team can muster, it will probably start correcting the economy, but even in that case there is a social hell to pay. His presidency can end very quickly if he doesn't get it surgically right.
Still, correcting Argentina will take more than one mandate. His bet is an expansion of the economy, but that does not happen instantly and frankly... anyone investing in Argentina should know that... well, is "kind of risky".
https://youtu.be/H0Ff3nESRH0Edit to add: For those that think that removing the Central Bank is a good idea, notice that dollarizing the economy does not shut down the Central bank, it just outsources it to a foreign central bank. I wonder if that is "freedom".