Topic: June 28th to July 12th Difficulty thread. Picks are closed!! - page 4. (Read 6689 times)

I'll get right on that, SIR!!!   

While I am at it, would you like me to adjust your weather or electricity price?

It has to stop NOW !!!

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

6-28-2015  145 blocks 144 is normal   but we were partial for sunday.

so  about 108 made  109 norm so >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  -1

6-29-2015  132 blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>>   -12    

6-30-2015  146 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>  +2
 
7- 1-2015   139 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>   -5

7-2-2015    153 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>> +8
 
7-3-2015    158  blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>> +14

7-4-2015    154 blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>  +10

7-5-2015     146 blocks 144 is normal>>>>>>>>>>>>> + 2

7-6-2015     171 blocks  144 is normal>>>>>>>>>>>>  +27

7-7-2015     142 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>> -2

7-8-2015      159 blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>> + 15

total >>>  1608 made  normal 1552    so plus 56

 this is (+3.61%)

about 4/5   there

  https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty --------  (+4.72%)  this is about 1% higher then real number.



Adjust time:   After 399 Blocks, About 2.6 days


BTC/USD: 265


July 8 was strong 159 blocks.

Seems like were going the wrong way:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,402,014,931
Estimated Next Difficulty:    51,733,894,841 (+4.72%)
Adjust time:    After 399 Blocks, About 2.6 days
Hashrate(?):    384,592,869 GH/s

Yeah I like to pick 4,20% but i was sure that was too much for this Diff !

I was wrong... always stick to the plan !

Hopefully it does go down, just a little...

Hopefully bitwisdom goes down.  It's higher then I like to see, although it could be worse.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,402,014,931
Estimated Next Difficulty:    51,745,588,728 (+4.74%)
Adjust time:    After 451 Blocks, About 2.9 days
Hashrate(?):    379,309,543 GH/s

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

6-28-2015  145 blocks 144 is normal   but we were partial for sunday.

so  about 108 made  109 norm so >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  -1

6-29-2015  132 blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>>   -12    

6-30-2015  146 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>  +2
 
7- 1-2015   139 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>   -5

7-2-2015    153 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>> +8
 
7-3-2015    158  blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>> +14

7-4-2015    154 blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>  +10

7-5-2015     146 blocks 144 is normal>>>>>>>>>>>>> + 2

7-6-2015     171 blocks  144 is normal>>>>>>>>>>>>  +27

7-7-2015     142 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>> -2

7-8-2015      159 blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>> + 15

total >>>  1608 made  normal 1552    so plus 56

 this is (+3.61%)

about 4/5   there

  https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty --------  (+4.72%)  this is about 1% higher then real number.



Adjust time:   After 399 Blocks, About 2.6 days


BTC/USD: 265


July 8 was strong 159 blocks.

it is interesting but the prediction is too high  5.6% is conservative and 6.1% is the best guess and 7.7% is top end.

yesterday we had a good high number of blocks 171   which is the highest number since march when we had a 176.

today we are dropping back to 140 something

https://blockchain.info/blocks

364292 -------------------18:19

363188 ------------------- 00:03

so 105 in 18 hours and 20 min  we should do 6 x 18.= 108 +2 = 110  so we are at a 138 pace for today

daily tracking is tough

but  that is what this thread is about  tracking the diff.

we did have quite a few days in a row over 144   five to be exact, but today could break that streak.

In case this is new to other folks, I found this website that seems pretty relevant here. I haven't tried to verify it's accuracy, and the projected value does seem high, if I am reading it right. Nevertheless, it seems live a worthwhile addition:

http://nextdifficulty.com/

I kinda liked the little graph, cause it clearly shows the last 7 days, which has a definite upward trend.

I think you're with most people on that one, you saw the writing was on the wall for 2015 as machines got bigger and hotter. A lot of the gear we now host was once "home miner" gear, but they have packed in it. (It helps that we're cheaper than most people's residential rate.)

Percentage wise who are under 10 TH? Less than 10% of the total power. But we don't do any cloud mining.

Anyway... we can argue for days but it doesn't look like any of us really know how many home miners are left. Discus fish could probably tell us about IP distribution... but they won't I'm sure!

Well the price is still increasing so gear is starting to be put online once it becomes profitable again
Right now its at 4-4.25%
In Mr.Burns voice (Excellent)
Bitcoin Difficulty: 49,402,014,931
Estimated Next Difficulty: 51,468,038,950 (+4.18%) 
Adjust time: After 662 Blocks, About 4.4 days 
Hashrate(?): 375,257,881 GH/s

I think it's impossible to separate a small increase in actual hashrate (i.e. new or secondary hardware that's now active), from just variance. It seems you can really only appreciate increases in hardware from a retrospective of difficulty increase, and one change doesn't say anything.

I think it's safe to say that there hasn't been any REAL increase in hashrate for the last two months. The difficulty is roughly what it was 2 months ago (See June 14th and April 5th).

This isn't going to last for the remainder of the year. SFARDS is selling (or self mining) with previously non-existsent hardware. There will be something from Bitmain that's faster and more efficient than the S5, regardless of it's exact designation (e.g. S6/S7).

My personal feeling is that this next difficulty change will put in a new "floor" for difficulty. It may not be be quite 50 billion, but it will be 49 billion at least.

I have absolutely no idea to reconcile the competing views about what a self-mining company does with more efficient gear. Do they replace "for hashrate" (and lower costs), or do they just match Watts and increase hashrate. The last few months suggest very little of the latter. I don't know what happened to the S3's that got displaced by S5's. Some got relocated to a Hydro rich area of China (e.g HaoBTC), maybe some got destroyed to never return.

Enjoy the show over the next 3 months. At least I think we can finally ignore BFL in the whole discussion! 

Now I know Great Northern Data we have talked a bit.  About hosting ..


You host have many 10th and under do you have>   percent wise  10 percent or less?


 I suspect most that host  with do a lot more then 10th with your company..


But there are a lot of people that mine like I do.  More in the winter less in the summer.  Due to heat and due to power cost.

This year I said fuck it. and I don't have much gear in house.

 but if I had  5 avalon's  I can move them from 800gh each to 1000gh each or 4th to 5th if I spec that we see a bigtime coin move.

 alot of us have sp20's  clocked at 1100 to 1200 gh   but we can bump them from that to 1350gh easy.

you guys are underestimating  what home miners can do.  and I think part of the problem is  you are not the farm in my explanation your are a data center .  you need 90% + cap to survive.  asic builder-miners like bitmaintech have a set of 4 to 5   factors you don't have.

   But maybe I am mistaken.

Well its the summer.  A lot of home miners turn gear off in the summer due to higher power rates.

as for f2pool  I can fully break the coinage down. takes about 15 minutes.  they paid out 700 coins    I think at least 40 went to payments under .1 btc which is about 10th.

this is an address from f2pool payments

https://blockchain.info/address/1JdC6Xg3ajT3rge3FgPNSYYFpmf53Vbtje

585 coins of 697 were paid  from 65 btc down to  .2 btc  which means 112 coins were paid to   miners under .2 btc
637 coins of 697 were paid from  65 btc down to  .1btc   which means   60 coins were paid to miners under .1 btc


112/697 = 16% of the miners on f2 pool are at 20th or less.
 60/697 =   8% of the miners on f2 pool are at 10th or less.

antpool  is close to the same.

as is the other big Chinese company

So  8 to 16% is home mining by the little guy.

 not 1 to  5%

No, I count them for what they are, hosted miners on separate accounts. F2Pool is roughly 65 PHash. That's at least 40MW of power. While undoubtedly some are home miners, most is large scale operations. Perhaps 1% is too low, I still doubt it's 5% of the network. And among those home miners, I'd surprised if they had even 10% idled power. Why would they? Older miners have lower hashrates which makes such a large amount of idled power even less likely.

well I do see looking at it that way and it certainly may be true. time will  tell if you are correct that is the method they use.

or if they moderate my way and maintain hash rate share by cutting power  and less growth then possible.

I suspect they mix methods and constantly look at other big players.

many ways to get things to work well together.   

To add to Jamphone -though I am a nobody in the industry- manufacturers aren't worried in the least about the total difficulty/hashrate, they are concerned with their own market share of it, and specifically maintaining/increasing that.  Increase of difficulty is the natural by-product of competition and capitalism in the mining world, and if manufacturers took measures to try to keep the global difficulty down, it would mean they were sacrificing their own revenue in the process.  That just does not happen.