Just a thought: this is the result of the bear market for almost 2 years.

azguard

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Quote from: QuintLeo on October 30, 2015, 06:02:17 AM

I'm looking at the Chinese economy being the primary driver. Keep an eye on Yuan/USD exchange rates....

you think that Yuan is gonna be primary hard euro was pushes the same and it can be done over the night like EU though
dollar will stay primary other are here for local currencies

Pierre 2

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This is not only the bear market of long years. It has speculative characteristics.
It may be caused by Chinese, I'm not sure but I am sure that fuel will be spent and price will be stabilized around 250.

QuintLeo

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I'd say that the "MMM" stuff counts as "news out of China".

9-)

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Quote from: medUSA on October 30, 2015, 06:57:31 AM

I don't believe the sudden spike is caused by "good news". There aren't any really good news to be honest

That's what's surprising about this. There's no new use case.

It does seem to be driven by trading from China. Over 90% of the volume is in CNY.

How much of that is real?

Some of this seems to be associated with MMM Global, which is a Ponzi scheme in China. That can't end well. Since they advertise 100% gain per month, the collapse can't be too far away.

The guy behind MMM Global did this before.

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Quote from: worhiper_-_ on October 31, 2015, 08:29:19 PM

Quote from: dothebeats on October 31, 2015, 03:39:03 AM

Quote from: QuintLeo on October 30, 2015, 06:39:47 PM

…
DO NOTICE that the massive transaction volumes have been happening on Chinese exchanges....

People have already noticed it and thinks that it's insane to sustain that kind of volume in a week. It is fake, though the majority of the market share is still in China. Also, it is not surprising for our Chinese brothers to maintain that volume since most mining farms and free trade fee is imposed on exchanges there.

We just saw a 20$ drop as MMM went into pause mode, the price was moving upwards fast until that moment. We can't really tell if the drop came solely from people directly related to MMM but if we're going to make correlations, I'd say that the news sent ripples to the market as the buying pressure that was supposedly coming from people looking to participate in the ponzi would no longer be sustained.

That MMM thing surely has an effect in the price, or is it because it's just a weekend that's why the price isn't that moving at all? It could be a cause of the halt of price increase, but we'll see what happens if the MMM resumed operations

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Quote from: PolarPoint on October 31, 2015, 08:47:02 PM

Those who have sold low are now panicking. They are may not be able to buy back the coins at the price they sold. There are also people who are regretting why they didn't buy more when it was near $200. There will be a big rush to buy coins if bitcoin continues to rise.

I'm good. Sub-$200 buyer and coins that I previously bought with a dollar cost avg. of $217 per coin. I almost sold some yesterday, but seeing how the sells were overcome immediately, I changed my mind and hodl lol.

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Those who have sold low are now panicking. They are may not be able to buy back the coins at the price they sold. There are also people who are regretting why they didn't buy more when it was near $200. There will be a big rush to buy coins if bitcoin continues to rise.

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Quote from: dothebeats on October 31, 2015, 03:39:03 AM

Quote from: QuintLeo on October 30, 2015, 06:39:47 PM

…
DO NOTICE that the massive transaction volumes have been happening on Chinese exchanges....

People have already noticed it and thinks that it's insane to sustain that kind of volume in a week. It is fake, though the majority of the market share is still in China. Also, it is not surprising for our Chinese brothers to maintain that volume since most mining farms and free trade fee is imposed on exchanges there.

We just saw a 20$ drop as MMM went into pause mode, the price was moving upwards fast until that moment. We can't really tell if the drop came solely from people directly related to MMM but if we're going to make correlations, I'd say that the news sent ripples to the market as the buying pressure that was supposedly coming from people looking to participate in the ponzi would no longer be sustained.

dothebeats

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Quote from: QuintLeo on October 30, 2015, 06:39:47 PM

…
DO NOTICE that the massive transaction volumes have been happening on Chinese exchanges....

People have already noticed it and thinks that it's insane to sustain that kind of volume in a week. It is fake, though the majority of the market share is still in China. Also, it is not surprising for our Chinese brothers to maintain that volume since most mining farms and free trade fee is imposed on exchanges there.

QuintLeo

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I'm pretty sure the recent rise is fueled mostly by the news out of China, coupled with worries about the China "South China Sea" push starting to get some significant push back action and the potential of that escalating.

Not subject to VAT finding isn't a big deal, though mostly positive - the concensus among most government agencies I've seen rullings out of are in line with Bitcoin being a commodity, that was just more of the same (though it's still early days yet and there's a lot of agencies haven't announced any sort of ruling yet).

Gemini - *yawn* - no actual news there.

Bubble in the making? Many past bubbles started out based on real news, then got out of hand as everyone jumped on the bandwagon once it got rolling.

Blocksize limits issue isn't a "gonng hammer folks hard this year" one, it was looking more likely to be a significant issue 2-3 years down the road. Take the time to fix it right actually makes sense, as long as it's done in the next year or even 2.

DO NOTICE that the massive transaction volumes have been happening on Chinese exchanges....

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Quote from: medUSA on October 30, 2015, 05:02:12 PM

Quote from: dothebeats on October 30, 2015, 12:06:16 PM

The ECJ ruling AT LEAST alleviate what problems there are in terms of taxation in EU. It might not be overall good, but still there IS a part of it which do good for most people.

Yes, I agree with you. There are positives to the ruling, it does define bitcoin better in the EU.

Going back to my original point, I don't see any "really good news" in the environment. There is still the blocksize debate hanging over us and it's been swept under the carpet until some convention early next year. People view market news differently, does not mean they are disconnected from the market or dwelling in a cave. Wink

This might be another reason for some significant price changes to come. Idk whether team Blockstream would still stay on their reasoning for the block size limit or they will accept some suggestions from other parties.

Haha probably joshing around when I said "dwelling in a cave." I hope all things are good.

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Quote from: dothebeats on October 30, 2015, 05:44:15 AM

It just came to me that since the bear market spanned for a long time (almost 2 years), it was the perfect time for bulls to accumulate and enlarge their stashes. This time, they see it perfect to do the rise since there had been a lot of good news recently. Good news = cover up for a bubble in the making. Nothing, it just occurred to me that everything in this rise is the result of most scared buyers not acting when the prices are dirt cheap.

Thoughts?

What you said is right.

Why ? Read this

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/chinese-exchanges-agree-bitcoin-price-has-nothing-to-do-with-capital-controls-1446233197

medUSA

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Quote from: dothebeats on October 30, 2015, 12:06:16 PM

The ECJ ruling AT LEAST alleviate what problems there are in terms of taxation in EU. It might not be overall good, but still there IS a part of it which do good for most people.

Yes, I agree with you. There are positives to the ruling, it does define bitcoin better in the EU.

Going back to my original point, I don't see any "really good news" in the environment. There is still the blocksize debate hanging over us and it's been swept under the carpet until some convention early next year. People view market news differently, does not mean they are disconnected from the market or dwelling in a cave. Wink

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Quote from: medUSA on October 30, 2015, 08:24:00 AM

Quote from: dothebeats on October 30, 2015, 07:51:58 AM

Quote from: Dilla on October 30, 2015, 07:47:09 AM

Quote from: medUSA on October 30, 2015, 06:57:31 AM

I don't believe the sudden spike is caused by "good news". There aren't any really good news to be honest.

No good news? you been under a rock buddy?

Pretty much dwelling on a cave. Cheesy

There are good news recently: EU deciding that bitcoin shouldn't be subjected to VAT, Gemini, halving is near, ETF and a lot more minor positive news. That could pretty much be a cover-up for the price rise recently and these news didn't affect the price directly.

You call these good news? Gemini is yet another exchange in NY, their ETF in fact has no news (still dragging along)

ECJ ruled that foreign exchange transactions involving bitcoin are exempt from VAT, this IS good. It also means bitcoin itself is taxable. Some EU countries (Germany/Sweden) can and will continue to regulate and tax bitcoin as a commodity. Does the ECJ ruling make a difference?

Good news or bad news depends on how deep you read into the news. You choose only to acknowledge the "good" side and ignore the "bad" side is your choice. Who's under a rock??

The ECJ ruling AT LEAST alleviate what problems there are in terms of taxation in EU. It might not be overall good, but still there IS a part of it which do good for most people. I agreed on how you view the news, but from a person who is living free from regulations and controls, I can say that easing the regulations for users is good at the least.

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Quote from: medUSA on October 30, 2015, 08:24:00 AM

Quote from: Dilla on October 30, 2015, 07:47:09 AM

Quote from: medUSA on October 30, 2015, 06:57:31 AM

I don't believe the sudden spike is caused by "good news". There aren't any really good news to be honest.

No good news? you been under a rock buddy?

You call these good news? Gemini is yet another exchange in NY, their ETF in fact has no news (still dragging along)

ECJ ruled that foreign exchange transactions involving bitcoin are exempt from VAT, this IS good. It also means bitcoin itself is taxable. Some EU countries (Germany/Sweden) can and will continue to regulate and tax bitcoin as a commodity. Does the ECJ ruling make a difference?

Good news or bad news depends on how deep you read into the news. You choose only to acknowledge the "good" side and ignore the "bad" side is your choice. Who's under a rock??

I pretty much agree with your first post above, about no good news for bitcoin that would justify the recent rise. It is a purely speculative rise so far.
Living in Germany I can confirm that this recent ruling has no influence on German tax authorities in how they see bitcoin. Nothing has changed here. The story about the ETF is an old one, too. It appears as a rumour every now and then, but for now it seems to be postponed to a pretty undefined future. I am expecting to see more of such news as the halving approaches, but let's see if something will materialise by then. To me not much has changed fundamentally about bitcoin in the recent 6 months. So we either were too low few months ago, or we are too high right now.

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Domino effect where? Russia is an insular and authoritarian country so it should come as no surprise. No doubt similar or worse regimes may try the same. Elsewhere it's being tolerated in China for now and most other developed nations have made noises and rulings that as far as they're concerned it's here to stay.

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Quote from: medUSA on October 30, 2015, 06:57:31 AM

could be manipulators, or the kidnapping case

Or you went full fiat and now the price started to increase so you need to think up some type of irrational explanation

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I wish people would read more than just the headlines. It is the Russian ministry of finance who doesn't want to ban Bitcoin but rather the exchange of Bitcoin into rubles. If you want to mine Bitcoin or exchange Bitcoin for goods directly, that would be alright under their suggested regulations. Also you have on the other end the Bank of Russia is receptive to Bitcoin. But before all that look at Putin's stand, he is the Tsar of Russia practically and so far he has been open to the idea of it. What he says goes ultimately.

Until concrete laws are passed it is all bluster. I'm sure you could find quite a few hacks in the 200 branches of the US government who wishes they could ban Bitcoin too.

Don't you love bureaucracy and civil servants?

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Quote from: gentlemand on October 30, 2015, 08:07:40 AM

Quote from: worhiper_-_ on October 30, 2015, 07:57:25 AM

This is why I think the bitcoin market is totally disconnected from reality. This on it's own is worst than all events positive we've seen about bitcoin in the last couple of months, yet it's not reflected at all in the current price surge. This is why I think it's a bad time to buy now, if Russia enforces that a lot of the market's demand would disappear and support levels would diminish.

Localbitcoins volume is an insane $15,000 a day in Rubles and there isn't a Russian exchange. Hold me...

It's not just the short term effect that matters. If Russia finds a formula to successfully ban bitcoin trades then it wouldn't be unlikely that this couldn't spawn a bitcoin banning domino effect.

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Quote from: dothebeats on October 30, 2015, 07:51:58 AM

Quote from: Dilla on October 30, 2015, 07:47:09 AM

Quote from: medUSA on October 30, 2015, 06:57:31 AM

I don't believe the sudden spike is caused by "good news". There aren't any really good news to be honest.

No good news? you been under a rock buddy?

Pretty much dwelling on a cave. Cheesy

There are good news recently: EU deciding that bitcoin shouldn't be subjected to VAT, Gemini, halving is near, ETF and a lot more minor positive news. That could pretty much be a cover-up for the price rise recently and these news didn't affect the price directly.

You call these good news? Gemini is yet another exchange in NY, their ETF in fact has no news (still dragging along)

ECJ ruled that foreign exchange transactions involving bitcoin are exempt from VAT, this IS good. It also means bitcoin itself is taxable. Some EU countries (Germany/Sweden) can and will continue to regulate and tax bitcoin as a commodity. Does the ECJ ruling make a difference?

Good news or bad news depends on how deep you read into the news. You choose only to acknowledge the "good" side and ignore the "bad" side is your choice. Who's under a rock??

Topic: Just a thought: this is the result of the bear market for almost 2 years. (Read 2078 times)