Topic: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game - page 136. (Read 435353 times)
The whale showed us that large bets are risky for the house. Why not to change house edge with a bet size? So that someone could bet even 1000 bitcoins at once, but with a house edge like 20-30%.
btw, the worst thing - for JD and remaining investors- is that nakowa will lose his money somewhere else.
no way he just stops
no way he just stops
Nakowa is now playing with two ID (percent + balotelli) to "get around" the max profit restriction.... His literal words:
I wasn't under the impression that Balotelli is the same guy as nakowa. Or did he make an account called balotelli recemtly? The one I'm thinking of is user 13839 and has been running a very successful martingale strategy for weeks if not months now. Very disciplined and quite regular. Not like a nakowa play at all.
Cake (which I thought is percent/celeste/nakowa/allover) said in the chat that Balotelli and Nakowa were the same guy, and it was his way to "cheat" the max profit limit (lol at that).
As there can be 100 "cake" on the site, it might well have been a joker.
some investors will wait ages to recover their losses as everyone will invest back now 
Exactly, those who stayed are going to wait ages for recovery, while those who left and go back now are going to benefit from the lower variance! Insane.Yes, that's me. Kinda hurts to know that even dooglus divested, plus he suddenly changed the rules while the only customers that could have made us quickly recoup those losses was playing, pissing him off big time.
I was ready to lose 100% of my investment playing against Nakowa because I have faith in both math and the weaknesses of gambler psychology, but realizing that it will now take ages to recoup that investment because of a management decision really sucks.
Dooglus, A serious question for you.
As you know, the 'investment' size has always been dictated by market demand. You set the rules (1% edge and 1% max bet), and market votes with their wallets.
Nakowa came and won 10,000BTC and brought the investment down from 55,000 to 45,000. 1/3 decided they couldn't take the heat and decided to divest.
2/3 were happy to keep their 30,000BTC invested and wait for Nakowa to bust.... But you gave them no warning that the 1% max bet could ever be arbitrarily changed without notice.
Don't you think a 5-day announcement would have been fair?
At least Nakowa would have seen it and said "Oh, damn, I only have 5 days left to keep winning" and given the 30,000BTC investors a change to recoup their losses.
Would you consider announcing ahead of time in the future any changes?? I thinks that would be fair to everyone.
As you know, the 'investment' size has always been dictated by market demand. You set the rules (1% edge and 1% max bet), and market votes with their wallets.
Nakowa came and won 10,000BTC and brought the investment down from 55,000 to 45,000. 1/3 decided they couldn't take the heat and decided to divest.
2/3 were happy to keep their 30,000BTC invested and wait for Nakowa to bust.... But you gave them no warning that the 1% max bet could ever be arbitrarily changed without notice.
Don't you think a 5-day announcement would have been fair?
At least Nakowa would have seen it and said "Oh, damn, I only have 5 days left to keep winning" and given the 30,000BTC investors a change to recoup their losses.
Would you consider announcing ahead of time in the future any changes?? I thinks that would be fair to everyone.
EDIT: in the last session his lowest bet is 3BTC...
Sorry if I've used your quote out of context, but if this session is like his past sessions, his lowest bet is probably 0.01 BTC. You can't really tell this without looking at the nakowa.txt files, as these micro-bets are rarely streamed when viewing in real time. He must have some reason (valid or not) for these micro-bets. Earlier it was suggested that he was looking for specific pattern sequences to emerge and I think we have some evidence to support this.
Just an excerpt from Nakowa as uid = 150486 (notice all the 1000000 [0.01BTC] bets)
uid betid nonce bet chance profit
150486 138192270 2100 20000000000 495000 20000000000
150486 138192295 2101 1000000 495000 -1000000
150486 138192338 2102 10000000000 495000 10000000000
150486 138192368 2103 1000000 495000 1000000
150486 138192416 2104 10000000000 495000 10000000000
150486 138192432 2105 10000000000 495000 -10000000000
150486 138192482 2106 1000000 495000 -1000000
150486 138192505 2107 1000000 495000 -1000000
150486 138192521 2108 1000000 495000 1000000
150486 138192555 2109 1000000 495000 -1000000
150486 138192587 2110 20000000000 495000 20000000000
150486 138192614 2111 1000000 495000 1000000
150486 138192646 2112 10000000000 495000 -10000000000
150486 138192694 2113 20000000000 495000 20000000000
150486 138192728 2114 1000000 495000 1000000
150486 138192756 2115 10000000000 495000 10000000000
150486 138192781 2116 10000000000 495000 -10000000000
150486 138192810 2117 20000000000 495000 20000000000
150486 138192838 2118 1000000 495000 1000000
150486 138192874 2119 10000000000 495000 -10000000000
150486 138192895 2120 20000000000 495000 -20000000000
150486 138192926 2121 30000000000 495000 30000000000
150486 138193005 2122 20000000000 495000 20000000000
150486 138193036 2123 20000000000 495000 20000000000
150486 138193055 2124 20000000000 495000 -20000000000
150486 138193090 2125 1000000 495000 -1000000
150486 138193110 2126 1000000 495000 -1000000
150486 138193133 2127 1000000 495000 -1000000
150486 138193146 2128 1000000 495000 -1000000
150486 138193165 2129 1000000 495000 -1000000
150486 138193183 2130 1000000 495000 -1000000
150486 138193201 2131 1000000 495000 1000000
150486 138193217 2132 1000000 495000 -1000000
150486 138193233 2133 1000000 495000 1000000
150486 138193252 2134 1000000 495000 -1000000
150486 138193285 2135 20000000000 495000 -20000000000
150486 138193334 2136 1000000 495000 -1000000
150486 138193365 2137 10000000000 495000 -10000000000
150486 138193389 2138 20000000000 495000 -20000000000
150486 138193427 2139 1000000 495000 -1000000
150486 138193458 2140 1000000 495000 -1000000
150486 138193467 2141 1000000 495000 -1000000
150486 138193481 2142 1000000 495000 1000000
150486 138193495 2143 1000000 495000 1000000
150486 138193530 2144 10000000000 495000 10000000000
150486 138193545 2145 10000000000 495000 10000000000
150486 138193567 2146 10000000000 495000 10000000000
150486 138193578 2147 10000000000 495000 -10000000000
150486 138193603 2148 20000000000 495000 20000000000
Nakowa is now playing with two ID (percent + balotelli) to "get around" the max profit restriction.... His literal words:
I wasn't under the impression that Balotelli is the same guy as nakowa. Or did he make an account called balotelli recemtly? The one I'm thinking of is user 13839 and has been running a very successful martingale strategy for weeks if not months now. Very disciplined and quite regular. Not like a nakowa play at all.
Investors took the risk when they let Nakowa win 13,000BTC, and now they have no chance to see that risk through to the end.
Dooglus changed the max profit without any warning. Thats not fair to investors. He could have at least said 'hey, im thinking about doing this, or that.'
He could have set up a poll on the site where 1BTC in investment = 1 vote or something like that
Poll could have been for: 0.25, 0.50, 0.75, 1.00, etc.
I'd be willing to bet 10BTC that most investors are not happy with the change.
So Nakowa logs on, invests 20000 BTC and votes against. Dooglus changed the max profit without any warning. Thats not fair to investors. He could have at least said 'hey, im thinking about doing this, or that.'
He could have set up a poll on the site where 1BTC in investment = 1 vote or something like that
Poll could have been for: 0.25, 0.50, 0.75, 1.00, etc.
I'd be willing to bet 10BTC that most investors are not happy with the change.
so, let's face it: doog was just not able to sit it out.
He just couldn't help stopping it.
Actually he did a similar thing the first time: he stopped the site
briefly when nakowa was winning a lot.
but anyway. Not enough cold blood = bad casion operator.
Too bad, it was a nice site.
Investors took the risk when they let Nakowa win 13,000BTC, and now they have no chance to see that risk through to the end.
Dooglus changed the max profit without any warning. Thats not fair to investors. He could have at least said 'hey, im thinking about doing this, or that.'
He could have set up a poll on the site where 1BTC in investment = 1 vote or something like that
Poll could have been for: 0.25, 0.50, 0.75, 1.00, etc.
I'd be willing to bet 10BTC that most investors are not happy with the change.
Dooglus changed the max profit without any warning. Thats not fair to investors. He could have at least said 'hey, im thinking about doing this, or that.'
He could have set up a poll on the site where 1BTC in investment = 1 vote or something like that
Poll could have been for: 0.25, 0.50, 0.75, 1.00, etc.
I'd be willing to bet 10BTC that most investors are not happy with the change.
some investors will wait ages to recover their losses as everyone will invest back now
Exactly, those who stayed are going to wait ages for recovery, while those who left and go back now are going to benefit from the lower variance! Insane.he'll never come back again; that's it; some investors will wait ages to recover their losses as everyone will invest back now
The fact so many divested and noone was reinvesting under the old rules shows it was not viewed by anyone as a good investment anymore. 
he'll never come back again; that's it; some investors will wait ages to recover their losses as everyone will invest back now
I think its amazing all these geniuses think a 1% edge means you have to win.
The original game plan was fine and changing it is really unfair/cheating the whale. if he leaves, this site sucks.
The original game plan was fine and changing it is really unfair/cheating the whale. if he leaves, this site sucks.
18:36:09 (153338) I'm DONE. pulling back 2976 coins. NEW RULES KILLED ME.
UTTERY STUPIDITY TO CHASE THE WHALE AWAY.
WE WOULD HAVE BEEN +10,000 TODAY.
UTTERY STUPIDITY TO CHASE THE WHALE AWAY.
WE WOULD HAVE BEEN +10,000 TODAY.
I love that no one sees that if indeed this was a cheat and/or inside job this is the ultimate way to disguise an exit. Things were getting too hot, how to maintain credibility and yet keep most profits? give back a bit, reinforce the red herring ideas that this was about max bet size, and keep the 13k coins you won while not affecting the credibility of the site.
Sorry, but this is hilarious to watch. I hope I'm wrong but expect this will end in tears for 'investors' that aren't part of the JD team.
Let me guess the next moves:
1) investors go back to making some slow but steady money again. Faith is restored. More money comes in to the pool (who doesn't like easy money?).
2) another whale or set of smaller but not trivial 'gamblers' start defying the odds and investors lose all of that money plus some.
and/or
3) suddenly all money is lost, no one ever hears from JD again. Who can do anything about it?
1% is not flawed. 1% is actually pretty low. Kelly Criterion, as another person posted.
I think today Nakowa lost 1,820BTC with small bets (max bet 70BTC). I wonder what would have been the result if the max bet was not lowered...
EDIT: Nakowa just sent 1,000BTC to an unused address, it might well be J-D... We will know as soon as it hits the first confirmation.
As I've said: a degenerate gambler, we just need math do its thing. There's no point in chickening out.
EDIT: Nakowa just sent 1,000BTC to an unused address, it might well be J-D... We will know as soon as it hits the first confirmation.
As I've said: a degenerate gambler, we just need math do its thing. There's no point in chickening out.
Even though I agree on many points you say, I believe Kelly criterion is too much an aggressive way to play against a massive gambler. Have you run some simulations? I did and the plots of the earnings are scary (some of them are nice too). Suppose that we keep playing with this maxbet and the bankroll still shrinks, then a lot of people will be very scared and will quit the website thinking it is scam or else, then what do we do, we play 100B bankroll? Then we really will wait a lot
What I really cannot understand is how people invests in a gambling site without realizing what 1% house edge + 1% max profit means. Returns will wildly fluctuate because of variance if whales push the max bet, that was clear from the very first moment - take or leave it.
Well I think it is partially true. People may well see that the current 1% is 30000 euros and can conceive that it does not exist a gambler ready to pay that amount of money for a single gamble. Did you really think that a whale existed? One playing 13M euros in just one day? I did not and I think many people did not as well and this kind of reasoning is sort of out of the math and is personal, of course they do not write it in the website.
In any case I never divested in any moment :-)
Well considering we can still consider the casino "beta" and the 1% limit was flawed but at the same time correcting it impaired investors ability to make back their money, I don't see the problem with TEMPORARILY freezing new investments. It doesn't hurt the site either. It makes sense because of the lower limit.
When I invested, I didn't know that the max limit could be lowered at anytime while I'm in the red.
Actually personally, I invested in the middle of the Nakowa show becasue 1- I though it was good advertising 2- I thought he would soon lose it all back.
When I invested, I didn't know that the max limit could be lowered at anytime while I'm in the red.
Actually personally, I invested in the middle of the Nakowa show becasue 1- I though it was good advertising 2- I thought he would soon lose it all back.
18:36:09 (153338) I'm DONE. pulling back 2976 coins. NEW RULES KILLED ME.
UTTERY STUPIDITY TO CHASE THE WHALE AWAY.
WE WOULD HAVE BEEN +10,000 TODAY.
You want to invest in a site which can swing 10,000 BTC per day on a 30k bankroll? Most do not nor was that the intended design.UTTERY STUPIDITY TO CHASE THE WHALE AWAY.
WE WOULD HAVE BEEN +10,000 TODAY.
Can I respond with a "hell yes".
If that swing hurts you just invest less.
There was NEVER a guarantee that if you invest, you profit. These people screaming to halt new investments are the ones who shouldnt be investing in the first place.
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