Each time the site profit goes above 1% of total wagered amount, some investors pull out, reducing the max bet on the site. They're clearly thinking that it's bad to be invested when profits are above expectation, because they'll lose out during the inevitable return to 1%. So they wait, and reinvest once the site returns to 1%.
This is a clear example of gambler's fallacy, and I've tried explaining it to some of them. They listen, appear to understand, then repeat the same pattern next time the site goes above 1% profit.
And it's working for them. The site does return to 1%, and they avoid the losses.
How do I convince them that it's a losing strategy when both their gut and their pocketbook tells them otherwise (so far)?
And do I want to?
I pulled this quote from day #17 of operations. Nakowa made his first big assault on day #24. It's an interesting question, since I get the feeling that the profit has been below 1% for most of the site's lifetime.
I am curious if there are some investors who are still trying to use this strategy? Possibly they look at winnings over the last few months, and try and time the market this way.
(thanks to doog for that feature)
