Topic: Just-Dice.com : now with added CLAMs : Play or Invest - page 177. (Read 454823 times)

I tried explaining this to him for a very long time..

It won't work. He's a persistent bugger, he's having fun though, so fair enough.

Alas, I do not. Let that not prevent you from throwing money at me though

@Rannasha, do you have a giant beanstalk? If so, I would like to throw my money at you.

No matter what complicated strategy you use, you're better off making a single straight-up bet for the amount you aim to win.

If your goal is to gain 20% per month with a high-probability Martingale-style strategy, your chances are improved by just making a single bet at 1.2x profit each month with the entire capital. The higher the probability you set in your strategy, the less likely it is to hit a losing streak long enough to break your bank, but the more runs you need to do to achieve the same profit, offsetting the reduced chance to lose.

You can run the numbers and see this quite clearly, but there's also an intuitive way to think about it. JD takes, on average, 1% of the amount you bet. If you make a single bet, you have an expected 1% loss on the amount wagered. If you use a Martingale-style strategy, you bet the same money more than once. To achieve, say, 20% profit, your total amount wagered will be more with a Martingale-style strategy than with a single 1.2x profit bet. And since in the long run, you expect your losses to reach 1% of the total amount wagered, the Martingale-style strategy loses. (the 20% profit is an example, it holds true for other values as well)

tldr: Dabs, if you set a monthly profit goal, I can outperform your strategy by placing a single bet each month (if I had magic beans, special seeds, dragons and all the yada yada of course).

You trying to make gambling profitable and riskless? Or wut is this all about.. minimizing risks?

Yes I did vlees. All was going according to plan, sort of. Simulations and probabilities make us prepared for 6, 7, 8 and even more losses in a row at this percent chance to win.

I was able to download a lucky number simulation of about 27 million rolls, which according to the guy who made the file uses the same luckynumber generation method of just dice.

In the little study I made, 6 losses happens 85 times, 7 losses happens 5 times, 8 losses happens once. In 27 million rolls. If I played the 98% chance to win game, then 3 losses happens 198 times, 4 losses happens 4 times, and 5 doesn't happen at all. Maybe my sample is too small, I'd need maybe 200 million rolls or something. But 98% pays out too little, or I'd estimate it at less than 1.3% per month, not counting delays for dust bets. (I'd need a 1000 BTC bankroll to overcome the dust speed limit.)

For this particular case, I'm counting on 7 losses in a row not happening just yet. It will eventually happen, but we will be prepared for that one (maybe after 27 million rolls, I'm just at 1.3 million rolls.)

Incidentally, dooglus, it takes about 20 seconds to read through that file from my laptop's hard drive. However, it takes a little bit longer to generate the same number of rolls. Perhaps the writing part takes longer? But I think you would save CPU time from the site if the lucky numbers of previous rolls are stored and not generated all the time, every time someone looks up a bet id.

I think I already told you once that you should prepare for 6 losses in a row. If you would simulate it you would find out that that amount of losses in a row comes up pretty often.

This is what I sent to DIGS about a week ago. (DIGS = Dabs Investment Gambling Security).. The name and the entire project is just for the lulz.

For reference, the first bet of this kind is also in this thread:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2657456


P.S. To those who have "trust issues" PM me and I will reply privately, so you know you can trust me with your bitcoins. I promise not to steal them. I do promise, that I will gamble them according to the steps described above.

TL;DR = Who wants to bet, that my next bet is going to win? Don't answer, just send your coins and PM me.

It was.  And you're welcome.

Aahahahha lovely

Thanks for sharing that, now  ican delay my bot coding pace lol (TF will be sad )

I quickly checked my J-D, sadly no 0.01 BTC =P.

Some how got a balance of 0.01 out of no where 

Thanks Doog if that was you 

So you're Deb? Previously, I'd thought Dooglus must have hired a Romanian developer by the name of Erz Petrescu.

That feature was slated for phase two

Pick one: http://developerexcuses.com/

You have been saying that for ages

No.  I'll add that asap though.

Do you have inputs.io withdraws yet?

That's insanity.