Topic: Just-Dice.com : now with added CLAMs : Play or Invest - page 181. (Read 454823 times)

Just use his user JD account # instead maybe, though looks like he left after losses before I arrived & hasn't been back.

Does pirate from the JD chat go by any other name?

That's gonna cause a problem for people who were here a year ago.

I meant the pirateat40 that was in the Just-Dice chat. Remember?

JD is so evil, LOL! I somehow gamble away everything I make there xD
Great site, doog!

I just noticed your signature.  While I enjoy being listed a "honorable", I'm not sure being in the same list as pirateat40 is good for anyone.  Is your list meant ironically?

yes i can give you 1 bitcoin so you can double it 4000 times - than we do 50 / 50 :-)

Doubling Bitcoins PM me

You should be careful saying things like "I will double it for you" when it's quite possible that what you will really do is lose it all.  I just saw you bet and lose over 10 BTC in a single bet.  I don't know how big your 'DIGS' fund is, but I suspect that loss may have killed it.  It certainly wiped out any gains you made over your previous 1.4 million dust bets.

Beware of offering fixed returns, especially when those returns are made by gambling.  Gambling tends to be a gamble...

Let's say you lose it all if you ever get 9 losses in a row (1,2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256).  This isn't quite true, because even if your first 9 bets are all losses you still have 0.001 left, and if you've won some sequences before your 9 losses you'll have even more left.

And you double if you have 512 successful sequences before you hit 9 losses in a row.

I assume you're playing the 49.5% 2x game, and so your probability of hitting 9 losses in a row is 0.505**9
So your probability of any single sequence being successful is (1 - 0.505**9).
And your probability of having 512 successful sequences in a row is (1 - 0.505**9) ** 512

That's 0.3345881014449683, or about 1 in 3.

I wonder why we differ so much.

It's all explained in the blog post, however if p = the probability to win a game (the game percentage / 100 ) and n=number of losses in a row, then:

* The average number of loss runs until the next expected number of losses in a row: (1-p)^(1-1/p)/p

* The average number of loss runs until the next n losses in a row: ((1 - p)^-n)/p

* The average number of loss runs until the next greater than n run of losses in a row: (1 - p)^-(n+1)

That should work for you.

I have magic seeds? I think I know one reason why. I was born in the year of the Golden Dragon. Now, I'm not Chinese, but my Chinese friends say that is good luck. Also, my first born son was born last year, and that was the year of the Black Water Dragon. So I've got two dragons in my family.

We will carry the magic seeds far and wide, to profit all the way up to the sky, and as far as you can see on the horizon.


The answer involves the age of the universe. Even if you had every atom in the Sun working as a computer, it will still take the age of the universe (about 4 billion years) to get to less than a small percentage of the server seed key space. You're better off just applying some pixie dust and chanting to the Goddess of Dice for good fortune. That works better and produces less head aches.


I didn't quite answer this in the chat, but to double 0.512 means you will take it to 1.024. Which means you have to win at least 512 times. Since you will lose half the time on 50%, you need to play approximately twice as many rolls. However, with a bank roll of only 512, you can only lose 9 consecutive times in a row, which happens once every 512 rolls.

Now, if you do it Dabs style playing at 87.7779%, you start betting at 0.00000849, but due to the dust delaying tactics, it's going to take you at least a couple of weeks to do the half million rolls required. You can speed it up a bit, by recomputing from your balance at key points in time, to effectively compound your profits.

If you don't have the time, or patience, or fortitude, or perseverance, or stubbornness to do that, you can send your coins to me and I'll double it for you in about 2 weeks. (This is the DIGS or Dabs Investment Gambling Security.) The advantage I hold, aside from the magic seeds, are that my initial bets no longer get any delays for being above the dust levels.

However, due to internet latency, I still bet only about 2 rolls per second; and I'm not online the whole day, just when I'm at home or at the office.


I have a question. Can you put those equations into a formula I can easily paste into a spreadsheet? (like excel, or open office). I'm an admitted math fail, and those formulas that require pictures to show, have too many greek letters (or none?)

Thanks.

Some more explanations of gambling probability part 2: http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2013/07/144-some-notes-about-just-dicecom.html

Hope you find it interesting - post any questions about it that you might have.

If I have bankroll of 0.512 btc and I martingale with min bet 0.001 with the only purpose of doubling that 0.512:

Chance to double: 45.315736365781955072%
Chance to lose all: 54.684263634218044928%

Correct?

Theoretically possible? Yes. Applicable in practice? No. There are too many calculations that need to be made.

Is it possible to brute-force the secret server seed, given the client seed + past lucky numbers?

I find it fascinating how Dabs is able to write so much and at the same time say so little. 

Nope. ~16.5%. It's been a roller coaster ride for me all day (and some of the night.)

The delay is up to 3 seconds. Prior to the recent update, it was as high as 6 seconds.


While I can't (and no one can) predict with any certainty the future rolls without knowing the server seed, we can estimate with high probability, the future rolls, in terms of how often certain events occur, particularly the consecutive wins or losses.

That's not really the point, that's just a simplified view of things, and it just merely agrees with the Gambler's Fallacy, which many believe to be just that, a fallacy; therefore it can not be true.

But more to the point is that the lucky numbers are not truly random, they are determined. Yes, they are unpredictable. That is also why pseudorandom number generators (PRNG) are also known as deterministic random bit generators (DRBG).

In practice, the output from many common PRNGs exhibit artifacts which cause them to fail statistical pattern detection tests. These include:

    Shorter than expected periods for some seed states (such seed states may be called 'weak' in this context);
    Lack of uniformity of distribution for large amounts of generated numbers;
    Correlation of successive values;
    Poor dimensional distribution of the output sequence;
    The distances between where certain values occur are distributed differently from those in a random sequence distribution.

Whether or not my "magic seeds" are one of those "weak" seeds is not known at this point. Or I'm just lucky? I think the output using the current set up is actually uniformly distributed.

But wikipedia has this to say about the particular generation method of making lucky numbers.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptographically_secure_pseudorandom_number_generator

Yours, (JD), as well as CR and PD and maybe other gambling sites will be the first to extensively (or exclusively) use this in a "real" application (as far as real as we are concerned with bitcoins anyway).

But, this is all gambling. The site is gambling that they get their 1%. The gamblers are gambling that they win double their money back or nothing, or whatever chance to play they choose.

In the end, we can't really know or prove anything: whales can come and upset the whole operation in 30 seconds. Little fish can and will martingale and not go bust for a long time. Both do not prove anything.

I say, it's all magic and voodoo. Or faith... science nor math can prove the existence of deities, you just have to take that leap. There is a god of gambling. Or a goddess of dice. I dunno.

So, yah, maybe I don't know anything and maybe I don't have a point. But I like playing. The solution to the delay issue is and should be temporary. You need a better solution to that problem. (Server side martingale might be one of them.)