Topic: Just-Dice.com : now with added CLAMs : Play or Invest - page 208. (Read 454814 times)

Ok... Can I at least be the Gladiator? Do you not feel entertained? Are you not entertained? Ok. No hard feelings, lets just play.

It doesn't matter if you do a million bets. You haven't changed the odds, what you've done, since this is a -EV game, is lower your return & thus your expected profit whilst decreasing your chance of variance (And as a bettor, playing a -EV game, you want HIGH variance). Gambling at -EV compounds as volume increases. You doing many small bets is detrimental, you haven't changed the odds or anything of the such, you have simply gone 'slower' through manipulation of the probability of a sequence, at the cost of higher volume.

The idea of martingale (Or any variation) can sometimes be productive when attempting to break down risk when playing games where the odd's are static. You can manipulate those odds successfully through applying a martingale methodology, allowing bettors to assume odds like 87.5% chance of gaining the respective 'base stake' profit if playing a 50/50 martingale lose & double sequence three times. This indeed has higher -EV than if you did one bet, but it allows the user to manipulate the 'static' odds given by the host. This comes at a cost though, since your 'covering' bets through excessive volume which isn't altering odds.

The great thing about Just-Dice though, is it offers any odds you want, allowing you to disregard the need for sequences or strategies. This saves you volume, and with saved volume comes saved -EV & a higher level of variance for you to work with.

Also, by no means could this ever be related in any way shape or form to an investment. When someone invests, they will always be attempting to gain a +EV through their investment. There is NO way you can obtain that through gambling, and thus gambling should NEVER be confused with an investment. Gambling is a form of entertainment, nothing more, nothing less. Stop preaching unrealistic theories & nonsense.

I don't (think people want to send me money, to just gamble randomly.)

It's a gamble, and that is quite clear from the start. It's -EV yes, but I'm positive at this point. They can bet themselves, sure, but do they have the time or patience to do literally a million bets? That's the plan anyway, not a single big bet that doubles your money with half the chance of losing it all.

I think I'll stop the asking part (on this thread anyway) since it bothers you. I'm talking to the whales who are going to bet big anyways.

The "investment" is also a joke. I will make it clear that if I lose, I don't pay, since I can't pay. That's why it's called gambling. There are no sure funds, not even mutual funds or stock markets. They all have risks. The risks are low, but there are still risks. But the payout, if I win is big. Or at least more than any other investment that is not gambling.

I consider mining to also be gambling, with the increasing competition and rise in difficulty.

What investment managers do is mitigate those risks to produce profitable returns. And some other things I guess.

I'm not claiming to be a pro, I said I just feel like it. (on an unrelated note, I was undefeated in Starcraft 1 in my entire school on both 1-vs-1 and team games, about 800 students, and I was 2nd place in a chess competition once.)

In gambling, the house always wins. But there are also players, and for everyone that losses, there are also winners. The posts above already indicate the probabilities, so I won't repeat them here.

What I'm saying is I can duplicate the same probabilties, calculated over time or over hundreds or thousands of bets, to come out with the desired results, and if you bet right, you can win. You can also lose. I think I better make sure that part is clear. You can lose.


Thanks. I'm a good guy, doesn't mean I can't gamble every now and then and have fun. It's more fun to gamble with more money though, I think you can agree with that.


I spend only about 15 to 30 minutes reading the forums per day. I spend about an hour determining the winners of my lotto. I go watch a movie in the theater once in awhile. I lift barbells for 45 minutes 3 times a week.

Every other weekend, I'm on a medical mission distributing relief goods to disaster stricken people. I'm in the Philippines, by the way, and half the country is poor.

The rest of the time, I'm either at the office, working like everyone else, or at home, spending time with my 2 kids and the wife.

oh, yah, I'm on just-dice chatting with the nice people there (including you.) and telling dooglus about any bugs or typos I find on his site, and getting comped 0.01 for that. Then I let the bot run while I am asleep.

Your a good guy and all, but what the hell makes you think people want to chuck you upwards to $100k worth of Bitcoins to make a -EV gamble?

If people want to bet, they'll bet themselves... It just makes me cringe seeing you constantly post/ask for people to trust you with absurd amounts of money. Your offering 1% on an investment which if fails you have no way to pay them back. And that's already on top of your -EV you will receive from gambling. That means their EV has been drastically reduced even further. It just doesn't add up what so ever. Your also claiming to be 'professional' at rolling a dice? I can't even begin to grasp that, come on Dabs...

Your a really smart guy, find something productive to do with your time.

Yes,

Vink. TradeFortress. I'm talking to you. The both of you combined is about a 1000 BTC bet. But I changed the mechanics of what I plan to do. If you are interested, PM me.

I offer 1% of your "investment" per day. No, this is NOT a ponzi scheme. And I don't guarantee it. I am only 99.999-something-% sure I can do it again. I will do it in 2 phases.

Max Profit is now 194 BTC, it seems someone cashed out from S.Dice and put it all in J.Dice. I can do a 1500 BTC bet if only someone would sponsor me. I feel like I'm a Starcraft player in Korea sponsored by some Korean gaming/hardware/software company to play "professionally".

But I'm just a dice player.. a just-dice player.

Anyway, this is just an excuse for me to take a break and shut down my computer now, since I have no more just-dice money to play with. I still won the 7th bet. heheh.

I'm deliberately staying away from all bot discussions.  I don't endorse the use of bots on the site, and don't condemn it either.  I would say be careful what code you paste into your browser's console because malicious code could easily withdraw all your funds to the attacker's address (yes, even if you use 2fa, it could wait for you to type your code, and then substitute in their address instead of yours).

That said, I do know that when I restart the server all bot activity stops for a minute or two, until people manually restart the bots.  So could that be it?  Your bot is being killed by server restarts?  Make a note of when it happens next and I'll check to see if it matches up with a restart.

The t=... stuff is just the current time I think, and so isn't secret.

Hi dooglus
I have a question for the devs!
Do you have any idea why the bot is crashing after 1-2 hours of work? Sometimes even after 15-20 minutes....
The Chrome console shows some error in socket.io.js and it seems like it happens at random intervals.

Here's the error, copied from the console:

Note: I am not sure about the value of t in the url so i changed it in case it was supposed to be secret.
Do you have any suggestions on how to fix this?

oops, all is ok, sorry

Is the site down?

tks for informing it, didn't know about this token, I updated my code on post #152. Tested it and it worked.

90% chance to win 50 BTC, yet still an intrepid bet...

Yes, your bet is still the largest!













I have to say this to you too:

My bet is still the largest (I think), I'm ok

I have to say this:

https://just-dice.com/roll/13076611

Thanks. hhehe.. I told you, dooglus was "discouraging" the 7th bet from happening, as if he knew that I would win. But of course, he didn't. (He could have known, as the owner and operator.)


Thanks davecoin. My wedding ring is tungsten carbide. A little bit stronger than steel. However, it was "satoshi"'s money so I guess you could say he had the balls of steel, entrusting 11.42 BTC with me, and returning everything back.

I have a proposal to the whales here. As in, those people who I've seen betting 100 to 200 BTC, inclusive of the "so far" biggest 561 BTC bet. And of course, this is still gambling. And you can guess what that is, but here is some food for thought:

1. 7 loss streak = 1 in 2,454,591.19
2. 8 loss streak = 1 in 20,083,219.64.

PM me if you've got the same balls of steel and the bitcoins. hehe. It works in 2 phases. I can *almost* promise a better ROI than any 28nm ASIC miner out there right now. Assuming the investors don't pull out and make the max profit drop below 100 BTC.

*almost* = >99.99%, but of course, NOT guaranteed.

And what were the chances of 10 heads in a row when you look back after the whole sequence? 1/1024. In hindsight, when the event has happened, we can of course pretend that the probability is 1. But that's not really a probability, because probabilities are used to account for uncertain future events and not past events that are certain.

The 50/50 chance for a portion of coin toss sequence is temporary. A priori, the probability of the 10 loss sequence is 1/1024. In retrospect, the probability of any 10 loss sequence, materialized or not, is 1/1024.

Probability is a tricky bitch, it doesn't stay put where logic dictates it should. That instability is of course because it is a human crafted model and not part of reality as such. We can talk about it for decades and write books about its metaphysics. But according to my view, the probability of his full sequence of 7 losses to materialize was, and always will remain, 1 in ~2 million (and it didn't happen ).

Dabs, you've got some balls of steel.  Congrats.

Thanks for the heads up. Unfortunately, I am completely useless in scripts and have no idea what you are talking about.

Can some kind soul post a up to date working script? It would be great to be able to automate the process rather than hitting the keyboard continuously (plus the occasionally mistakes, of course).

Thanks for everybody's kindness.

Someone was kind enough to loan me 11.42 bitcoins to do the 7th bet. But since it was his coins, I returned everything including the profit back to him.

Who is kind enough to lend me a bitcoin or two? So I can restart my martingale that will last up to the 7th bet?