Just-Dice.com : now with added CLAMs : Play or Invest - page 24.

SebastianJu

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Quote from: dooglus on February 11, 2016, 04:07:24 PM

Quote from: Glucose on February 11, 2016, 12:24:12 PM

Anyone knows why CLAM price is going down ? Is there a new digger whale ? Anything I should know and I don't ?

Thx for your answers

Looks like someone withdrew around 7k from Just-Dice and sold it.

I see people in the Just-Dice chat complaining about how they feel betrayed by such behaviour. But shouldn't people be allowed to sell if they want to without incurring our wrath?

Sure they should be allowed. In fact those complaining complain only because the worth of their own clams are dropped and they can't sell it anymore now for the higher price... for the moment. So it really is not worth a complaint, when one would have no intention of selling at one point in time, which no one can say of itself, then it wouldn't matter what the price is. So these complaints are only saying someone other dropped my potential selling price.

Well, now it is a buying price. Cheesy

Though i think for a seller it would be smarter to do a public auction or something. There are enough people who would buy and most probably this person would receive way more than he would by dumping a big amount of clams on an exchange.

andulolika

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Activity: 2338

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Quote from: dooglus on February 14, 2016, 01:27:15 PM

Quote from: andulolika on February 14, 2016, 11:57:20 AM

The only thing i learned from that is that if an account seems unlucky run from it .

I think it's the wrong lesson. How it seems at the start is entirely unrelated to how it seems later on. For example, check out the highlighted line in this chart - it has a horrible start, but ends up doing pretty well:

The only thing lesson to take away from these charts is that the variance with a 1% edge is huge.

Most of the times you prove my stuff wrong lol.

dooglus

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Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: andulolika on February 14, 2016, 11:57:20 AM

The only thing i learned from that is that if an account seems unlucky run from it .

I think it's the wrong lesson. How it seems at the start is entirely unrelated to how it seems later on. For example, check out the highlighted line in this chart - it has a horrible start, but ends up doing pretty well:

The only thing lesson to take away from these charts is that the variance with a 1% edge is huge.

andulolika

legendary

Activity: 2338

Merit: 1047

Quote from: dooglus on February 14, 2016, 11:02:53 AM

I was doing some speed testing by running a bot against the Just-Dice server. I made 1000 bets of 0.001 CLAM at 49.5% and ended up with a profit of 0.088 - 88 units profit over 1000 bets. That seemed pretty unlikely to me, so I ran a simulation of 100 players each making 1000 bets at 49.5% with a 1% house edge.

Only 2 of the 100 runs ended up with over 80 units of profit after 1000 bets (click charts to enlarge; the green line is the expected profit):

I extended the simulation to run for 100k bets for 100 users. Note how it takes almost 60k bets until all 100 players are running at a loss:

The only thing i learned from that is that if an account seems unlucky run from it .

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

I was doing some speed testing by running a bot against the Just-Dice server. I made 1000 bets of 0.001 CLAM at 49.5% and ended up with a profit of 0.088 - 88 units profit over 1000 bets. That seemed pretty unlikely to me, so I ran a simulation of 100 players each making 1000 bets at 49.5% with a 1% house edge.

Only 2 of the 100 runs ended up with over 80 units of profit after 1000 bets (click charts to enlarge; the green line is the expected profit):

I extended the simulation to run for 100k bets for 100 users. Note how it takes almost 60k bets until all 100 players are running at a loss:

dooglus

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Activity: 2940

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Quote from: jaysabi on February 12, 2016, 05:31:12 PM

Obviously, no one is going to support a method of limiting withdrawing CLAMs you already own, and Doog (so far as I can predict) would never be so tyrannical as to suggest such a notion.

Of course.

dooglus

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Quote from: ottodv on February 12, 2016, 09:10:29 AM

Quote from: dooglus on February 07, 2016, 08:45:58 PM

I think the solution for this is to offer staking-only to those people, so you can continue to collect staking rewards (minus the 10% commission) without being involved in the bankroll at all.

It will take me a while to implement the staking-only feature. Until I do, I won't drop the maximum offsite multiplier below 25x.

Couldn't you more or less implement this as a negative offsite amount?
People who want to go back to the old situation with no offsite would need to put -90% of their onsite coins as their "offsite" investment.

People who want no offsite just set their offsite amount to 0 - that works fine already.

I'm talking about people who want no bankroll risk at all, and only want to stake.

I could let them set their offsite to -1x ie. have their offsite amount be equal and opposite to their onsite amount, so they cancel each other out, but the problem is that your onsite amount changes as players win and lose, but your offsite amount is constant. So they wouldn't stay equal-and-opposite for very long.

andulolika

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Quote from: Glucose on February 13, 2016, 07:00:17 AM

Quote from: BayAreaCoins on February 11, 2016, 04:31:08 PM

Perhaps you could put withdraw limits on JD to help save the CLAM market.

Put it to a vote maybe? Roll Eyes

It doesn't look like a good idea to me. People should be allowed to withdraw all they want and sell all they want.

Lower price is also the occasion to buy more if you already have clams / or for new users to enter into the clam market at a lower price.

I also believe is a great chance to get cheap clams, its just a matter of time.

Glucose

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Activity: 861

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Quote from: BayAreaCoins on February 11, 2016, 04:31:08 PM

Perhaps you could put withdraw limits on JD to help save the CLAM market.

Put it to a vote maybe? Roll Eyes

It doesn't look like a good idea to me. People should be allowed to withdraw all they want and sell all they want.

Lower price is also the occasion to buy more if you already have clams / or for new users to enter into the clam market at a lower price.

jaysabi

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Quote from: Dabs on February 12, 2016, 11:58:05 AM

Quote from: BayAreaCoins on February 11, 2016, 04:31:08 PM

Perhaps you could put withdraw limits on JD to help save the CLAM market.

Put it to a vote maybe? Roll Eyes

The limit should be how much CLAM you actually have in your account. Not more. (Oh I wish I could withdraw more.)

He was being facetious and calling back the debacle over the whale digger and the notion that the ends justify the means and long as the ends is maintaining a high CLAM price. Obviously, no one is going to support a method of limiting withdrawing CLAMs you already own, and Doog (so far as I can predict) would never be so tyrannical as to suggest such a notion.

Dabs

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Quote from: BayAreaCoins on February 11, 2016, 04:31:08 PM

Perhaps you could put withdraw limits on JD to help save the CLAM market.

Put it to a vote maybe? Roll Eyes

The limit should be how much CLAM you actually have in your account. Not more. (Oh I wish I could withdraw more.)

ottodv

newbie

Activity: 59

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Quote from: dooglus on February 07, 2016, 08:45:58 PM

I think the solution for this is to offer staking-only to those people, so you can continue to collect staking rewards (minus the 10% commission) without being involved in the bankroll at all.

It will take me a while to implement the staking-only feature. Until I do, I won't drop the maximum offsite multiplier below 25x.

Couldn't you more or less implement this as a negative offsite amount?
People who want to go back to the old situation with no offsite would need to put -90% of their onsite coins as their "offsite" investment.

chilly2k

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Activity: 1007

Merit: 1000

Quote from: dooglus on February 11, 2016, 06:19:55 PM

Quote from: chilly2k on February 11, 2016, 05:31:02 PM

I know some of that dumping was caused by myself.... used the clams as collateral to short other coins. got called so clams got dumped. Wasn't intended..

Part of the exposure having clams margin traded, and able to be used as collateral on Poloniex.

That's very interesting. It hadn't occurred to me that dumping could happen accidentally, as a result of a collateralized loan going bad.

So let's say you were shorting ETH using CLAM as collateral. That means you borrowed some ETH on the lending market and then sold it for BTC, hoping for the price to drop. When the price continued to increase your CLAM was automatically dumped for BTC, and that BTC was used together with the BTC from selling the ETH to buy back the ETH at the new higher price, and then the loan was repaid. So the lender gets his ETH back plus a little interest. You're out all your CLAM. So where did the value you lost go to? Other than the lender making a little interest, and the exchange making a little in fees, I guess the rest of your value ended up with ETH traders who bought cheap from you and sold back higher when you got margin called.

I find the mechanism both interesting and confusing. But also offtopic here I guess. So I'll shut up about it.

That's exactly how it works. I didn't lose all my clams but most of what I risked. I still had about 20% of my collateral after it was all done. Polo did a pretty good job keeping track of everything. They have to account for multiple trades at the same time, IE they need to sell assets over several buy orders at different price. At least I can lick my wounds and chalk it up to a learning experience.

dooglus

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Quote from: chilly2k on February 11, 2016, 05:31:02 PM

I know some of that dumping was caused by myself.... used the clams as collateral to short other coins. got called so clams got dumped. Wasn't intended..

Part of the exposure having clams margin traded, and able to be used as collateral on Poloniex.

That's very interesting. It hadn't occurred to me that dumping could happen accidentally, as a result of a collateralized loan going bad.

So let's say you were shorting ETH using CLAM as collateral. That means you borrowed some ETH on the lending market and then sold it for BTC, hoping for the price to drop. When the price continued to increase your CLAM was automatically dumped for BTC, and that BTC was used together with the BTC from selling the ETH to buy back the ETH at the new higher price, and then the loan was repaid. So the lender gets his ETH back plus a little interest. You're out all your CLAM. So where did the value you lost go to? Other than the lender making a little interest, and the exchange making a little in fees, I guess the rest of your value ended up with ETH traders who bought cheap from you and sold back higher when you got margin called.

I find the mechanism both interesting and confusing. But also offtopic here I guess. So I'll shut up about it.

chilly2k

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I know some of that dumping was caused by myself.... used the clams as collateral to short other coins. got called so clams got dumped. Wasn't intended..

Part of the exposure having clams margin traded, and able to be used as collateral on Poloniex.

BayAreaCoins

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Owner at AltQuick.com

Quote from: dooglus on February 11, 2016, 04:07:24 PM

Quote from: Glucose on February 11, 2016, 12:24:12 PM

Anyone knows why CLAM price is going down ? Is there a new digger whale ? Anything I should know and I don't ?

Thx for your answers

Looks like someone withdrew around 7k from Just-Dice and sold it.

I see people in the Just-Dice chat complaining about how they feel betrayed by such behaviour. But shouldn't people be allowed to sell if they want to without incurring our wrath?

Perhaps you could put withdraw limits on JD to help save the CLAM market.

Put it to a vote maybe? Roll Eyes

suchmoon

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Activity: 3654

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Quote from: dooglus on February 11, 2016, 04:07:24 PM

Quote from: Glucose on February 11, 2016, 12:24:12 PM

Anyone knows why CLAM price is going down ? Is there a new digger whale ? Anything I should know and I don't ?

Thx for your answers

Looks like someone withdrew around 7k from Just-Dice and sold it.

I see people in the Just-Dice chat complaining about how they feel betrayed by such behaviour. But shouldn't people be allowed to sell if they want to without incurring our wrath?

People should be allowed to dump and people should be allowed to whine about it. Happens with every coin, even the almighty BTC.

ranlo

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Quote from: dooglus on February 11, 2016, 04:07:24 PM

Quote from: Glucose on February 11, 2016, 12:24:12 PM

Anyone knows why CLAM price is going down ? Is there a new digger whale ? Anything I should know and I don't ?

Thx for your answers

Looks like someone withdrew around 7k from Just-Dice and sold it.

I see people in the Just-Dice chat complaining about how they feel betrayed by such behaviour. But shouldn't people be allowed to sell if they want to without incurring our wrath?

If they trust in CLAM, someone dumping the price should only mean free profit (price down - buy, now you have it when it jumps back up). So I see no reason to be upset. If they didn't trust in CLAM, they should have already dumped, so that makes it their own fault.

dooglus

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Quote from: Glucose on February 11, 2016, 12:24:12 PM

Anyone knows why CLAM price is going down ? Is there a new digger whale ? Anything I should know and I don't ?

Thx for your answers

Looks like someone withdrew around 7k from Just-Dice and sold it.

I see people in the Just-Dice chat complaining about how they feel betrayed by such behaviour. But shouldn't people be allowed to sell if they want to without incurring our wrath?

Thirteen

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Quote from: Glucose on February 11, 2016, 12:24:12 PM

Anyone knows why CLAM price is going down ? Is there a new digger whale ? Anything I should know and I don't ?

Thx for your answers

Not sure yet why the downtrend, but price already dipped to around 0.0016 late January and bounced back pretty quickly.
CLAM is a very special ecosystem among all the altcoins so it's hard to predict what's gonna happen.

Personally I'm having way too much fun on JD and love the community so it's just an occasion to buy cheap coins, but other people might have different views

Topic: Just-Dice.com : now with added CLAMs : Play or Invest - page 24. (Read 454769 times)