Hi guys,
something weird I stumbled across when studying a small martingale. I used to think that if the house has an edge of p (say 1/100), than on average it will earn from a bet 1/100 of that bet.
However, lets see the following simple case, where the bankroll is 1 clam, the player is playing with 1 clam at a time, with 0.505 probability of losing his/her clam. The player plays two times in a row. Then, with probability 0.505*0.505 the bankroll will become 3 clams and with probability 0.505*0.495 it will stay to 1. All other times the bankroll is taken by the player. The "expected bankroll" is thus 1.01505, which is "much" less than the expected 1.02!!!
What it seems happening is that the fact that the bankroll cannot recover from zero, and this cuts out some profitable plays from the player. I reworked the same example, but with a bankroll of 3, and its expected value is the "correct" 3.02.
I am quite surprised by this and I am not even sure I did a sound reasoning, I would really like to hear your opinion. If this was already a well established fact please forgive me, references would be appreciated.
Topic: Just-Dice.com : now with added CLAMs : Play or Invest - page 30. (Read 454769 times)
Hold off on your purchase doog.
I have JD mugs comingtoday! NOW
http://www.kingklye.com/product/doogs-mug/
I have JD mugs coming
http://www.kingklye.com/product/doogs-mug/
Oh this one is much better!
You need to make an option to get personalized mugs (unless there already is the option). They will most likely cost more but it would not be an issue.
P.S You can also sell your own art on the mugs haha
Hold off on your purchase doog.
I have JD mugs comingtoday! NOW
http://www.kingklye.com/product/doogs-mug/
I have JD mugs coming
http://www.kingklye.com/product/doogs-mug/
Hey doog! Sorry to hijack your thread!
Just a reminder you can now purchase Just-Dice.com and CLAM merchandise at http://www.kingklye.com/shop
Just a reminder you can now purchase Just-Dice.com and CLAM merchandise at http://www.kingklye.com/shop
No problem.
I often go shopping for coffee mugs but have trouble finding anything costing much more than $10-$15.
Being a rich snob obviously this will not do. I find myself wishing there was some place I could find a mug of the same quality but for twice the price. And now my wish has come true!
Thanks KingKlye!
Hey doog! Sorry to hijack your thread!
Just a reminder you can now purchase Just-Dice.com and CLAM merchandise at http://www.kingklye.com/shop
New items are currently being developed and made available. Pay with BTC/LTC/DOGE/CLAM/FLO or Paypal!
Just a reminder you can now purchase Just-Dice.com and CLAM merchandise at http://www.kingklye.com/shop
New items are currently being developed and made available. Pay with BTC/LTC/DOGE/CLAM/FLO or Paypal!
shorena explains it
Oh yah, hehe, I guess that makes perfect sense and I'm sorry for being so obtuse. I guess I just didn't expect that one guy's betting could kick up expected profit by that much, but I guess that was an epic run of play from dental.
Take a look at https://just-dice.com/misc/wagered.txt for the daily stats.
It shows that on 2015-10-15 there was 335k CLAM wagered, and so the expected profit will have gone up 3.35k that day. It was by far the most wagered in a single day.
Previous busiest days were:
2015-08-23 227k
2015-01-31 172k
2014-12-14 164k
2015-01-21 158k
shorena explains it
Oh yah, hehe, I guess that makes perfect sense and I'm sorry for being so obtuse. I guess I just didn't expect that one guy's betting could kick up expected profit by that much, but I guess that was an epic run of play from dental.
What's up with that little step-up in the expected profit (green) line? I would have guessed that the expected profit would track linearly with bet volume. Was there some huge jump in bet volume around 16 Oct? Or am I just misunderstanding things as usual?
Yop, remember this?
What's up with that little step-up in the expected profit (green) line? I would have guessed that the expected profit would track linearly with bet volume. Was there some huge jump in bet volume around 16 Oct? Or am I just misunderstanding things as usual?
The digger that timed his sell off with a big win seems to be watching JD hes a hardcore lurker
Someone is having fun playing the game got to enjoy dental.
Someone is having fun playing the game got to enjoy dental.
The mere existence of the digger means there's less buoyancy to the price than there would be without him.
Anyone seeing dental win 40k could have been tempted to sell a bunch of CLAM to get in before dental sold off - it needn't have been the digger.
Here's an updated chart of the digging - there's no big jump around 24 hours ago when the price dropped:
True enough it could be coincidental as the market would react the same if one presumes an outcome to occur.
It's the timeframe that makes it a bit more interesting seeing how it coincided with a big win that said the whales staking is stable, its the deposits to exchanges that need to be looked at.
The digger that timed his sell off with a big win seems to be watching JD hes a hardcore lurker
Someone is having fun playing the game got to enjoy dental.
Someone is having fun playing the game got to enjoy dental.
The mere existence of the digger means there's less buoyancy to the price than there would be without him.
Anyone seeing dental win 40k could have been tempted to sell a bunch of CLAM to get in before dental sold off - it needn't have been the digger.
Here's an updated chart of the digging - there's no big jump around 24 hours ago when the price dropped:
LOL, this guy is awesome, he won 50k but in the end he lost 45k of his coins, so I thought he dumped clam to the ground, but the truth is not he dumped CLAM, other altcoins are going down nowadays so I think it is the reason CLAM collapsed too?
Clam is having a digger, he had a big bunch of addresses funded, and he already dug a lot. The digger that timed his sell off with a big win seems to be watching JD hes a hardcore lurker
Someone is having fun playing the game got to enjoy dental.
Wow, what a rollercoaster.
Here's his chart:
and a close-up of just yesterday:
and the site profit:
LOL, this guy is awesome, he won 50k but in the end he lost 45k of his coins, so I thought he dumped clam to the ground, but the truth is not he dumped CLAM, other altcoins are going down nowadays so I think it is the reason CLAM collapsed too?
Clam is having a digger, he had a big bunch of addresses funded, and he already dug a lot. 
LOL, this guy is awesome, he won 50k but in the end he lost 45k of his coins, so I thought he dumped clam to the ground, but the truth is not he dumped CLAM, other altcoins are going down nowadays so I think it is the reason CLAM collapsed too?
Wow, what a rollercoaster.
Aaaaand, dental lost it back again. This guy is a roller-coaster. Site profit was at 190K before his huge-ass win, went to 150K after, now back at 190K. It's like nothing happened. oooo
https://just-dice.com/roll/875623560
https://just-dice.com/roll/875623504
https://just-dice.com/roll/875623491
https://just-dice.com/roll/875623478
Youch. I guess dental had some fun anyway, hope he broke even in the end.
https://just-dice.com/roll/875623560
https://just-dice.com/roll/875623504
https://just-dice.com/roll/875623491
https://just-dice.com/roll/875623478
Youch. I guess dental had some fun anyway, hope he broke even in the end.
Yow that was the win of the month
And that is quite some luck.
And that is quite some luck.
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