Topic: Just-Dice.com : now with added CLAMs : Play or Invest - page 39. (Read 454769 times)

Okay first things first, about your payout rules.  It doesn't make any sense.  5 clams will give 5%.  50 clam will give 50%.  And then anything over 100 clams is everything?  

And then second of all it seems you have money in money out problems.

Dooglus,

I'm against the idea of a jackpot on just-dice. I think it takes away more than it adds. You can already play low % bets if you want to get a jackpot style win.

I love JD and its innovations, especially the most recent offsite system. I am against a jackpot though as one side will ultimately have to pay for it (lower return for investors or higher edge if it were taken out of all bets). The former I feel would not spur enough new betting volume to be worthwhile for investors (I may be wrong). The latter is very bad (not that you suggested it in the first place). I say this as an investor and occasional player.

I also really like the stability and simplicity of the odds and the user experience on J-D. I have always admired your ability to not add new stuff constantly when what you have "ain't broke".

I have not tried to think of a jackpot system that would be beneficial and for all I know it could exist. I just can't get past the problem of funding it and the negative utility that probably gives investors.

Good point. The site sees something like 20k CLAMs wagered per day on a slow day. The house edge of 1% means we expect to win 200 CLAMs of that, and the 10% commission the site takes means that the site expects to keep 20 CLAMs from that. That's not enough to excite anyone is it, even if we put it all in the jackpot pool.


Thanks.

We hit 100k profit for a few seconds just now for the first time:

First, I love JD, thanks for running the site with such integrity.  Second, nice takedown of the dadice jackpot.

I think your outline here is a good way for a JD jackpot to work.  However, the problem is the same as with signature campaigns, I just don't think you can honestly make the jackpot big enough to really be a "jackpot" with the resources available given how you've set JD up.  

At .2% per day 1000 clams would stake 2 clams per day.  While I think any bonus would be welcome, given how much I see people bet on JD I don't think a target of 2 clams per day "jackpot" payout is going to get them very excited - a little more happy, sure, it's lucky money from dooglus - but not excited.

Sites like dadice need things like jackpots to get attention in the marketplace.  While I agree you are wise to monitor your rivals closely and seek to copy or preempt them when they do something clever, I don't think this is an idea you need to chase unless you just think it will be fun and cool to have.

Maybe people will donate to the jackpot pool like they do for the milestone contests you run.  

I too remember PD"s 77.77 jackpot and this seems similar.

Regardless, thanks for trying to think of ways to make JD better and good luck to you and your site.

I can't really think of anything else that you haven't just mentioned.  I did like PD's old jackpot system of 'Roll a 77.77 and automatically win 10x your bet, regardless of wager"

So a couple of days ago, DaDice added a jackpot feature to their site. It seems particularly poorly thought out, but it got me thinking...

How *should* a jackpot feature be implemented?

The DaDice jackpot has several flaws:

1) it's not provably fair at all - it depends on both the betid and the time, both of which can be undetectably maniputulated by the site

2) their jackpot has the best edge for the smallest bets; it actively encourages people to make tiny dust bets rather than big bets

3) their jackpot has a huge negative house edge; it is very gameable and unsustainable, unless they intend to cheat (see point 1)

So how can we do it better?

How about:

1) Since we have 6 digit rolls as opposed to their 4 digit rolls, we can get rid of the betid and current time components, and just make it that you need to roll 99.9999 to hit the jackpot. That makes the jackpot a 1-in-a-million chance. We see around 5 million bets per day, and so will see that many jackpot wins per day.

2) Clearly we need to scale the prize according to the amount risked. It's silly to encourage dust bets. And so hitting the jackpot will pay out a share of the prize pool based on the site of the bet. How about if the bet size in CLAMs is the percentage of the prize pool you win. So if you hit the jackpot with a bet of 5 CLAMs, you get 5% of the pool. That way the pool doesn't shrink too fast and gets a chance to build up. The vast majority of bets are dust, and so we can expect most jackpot wins to be bets staking less than 1 CLAM, and so it will be relatively rare that the pot goes down by much.

3) We've promised investors a 1% house edge, and 10% commission. The house will have to fund the jackpot itself since we don't want to change the deal we made with investors. We could initially fund it with 1000 CLAMs, and leave it to stake. Would the staking rewards make up for the payouts it makes? Staking pays out 0.2% per day, and we expect 5 jackpot wins per day. So long as the sum of the stakes of the 5 winning bets is less than 0.2 CLAMs, the pot will increase that day. That's probably usually going to be the case.

Thoughts? Suggestions? How would a well thought out jackpot system work? Is the proposed scheme worth implementing? Are the proposed prizes too small to bother with?

Yes Indeed, A YOLO which needs balls of irons to do one  

Wow that is a big single all-in bet. YOLO I guess lol.

Do you mean the site profit, and 100k?

It got up over 99k at one point, but then "upup" made a single all-in 49.5% bet:

bet #333517385: 2850 CLAM @ 49.5% lo: lucky:30.4222 profit:2850 balance:5700

They added leveraged trading.

Wasn't that traded months ago on polo or did they add leverage trading as well?
Nice to see the bank roll is nearing 10K ^^

It just happened a day or two ago I think.


I talked to their wallet manager about it. He told me they have no plans to stake any of the coins they hold. It's safer to keep them offline I guess.

If they would stake their CLAM wallet and share the rewards with their users I expect we would see a lot more depth on the "sell" side of the orderbook.

Wow didn't notice poloniex added clams trading.

I think this should add liquidity to the market which is good.

I wonder if poloniex should implement staking bonuses.  So that people who are long could receive appreciation of their clams.  And people who loan clams out could have a bit of payment for leaving clams on the exchange (lose money for waiting).


Also my condolences to Alice.  That's some crazy martingale betting. 

Thanks. I'll remove them from the FAQ and the auto-linking, and replace with a link to coinmarketcap's list of active markets.

I've also made "CLAM markets" link to the coinmarketcap page in the chat.

Of course we know all such gambling systems and looking for patterns are a logical fallacy and simply don't work, but I do hope people keep trying their tactics and strategies to defeat the laws of mathematics.

I think there are a number of others in the same boat. On a side note, Dooglus you have Comkort hotlisted on JD as an exchange but on their website they show this message:

I think the main problem is the missing utility of CLAM outside of just-dice.
If dooglus gets bored with crypto in 2 years and decides to close just-dice (remember, it already happened once  )
the CLAM price will drop to zero.

Apart from this I don´t see any real problems with CLAM.
And in spite of my doubts regarding longevity of CLAM I´m invested at just-dice and will continue to do so.
Maybe I´m betting that dooglus will continue running the site for a few more years 

You are right, I mean the demand will outperform the inflation, because everyone hopes that they will get more money, which I think you can already see, because the rate was very stable in the last few months. Should have dropped more with just the inflation.

But I wonder how I explain CLAM interest profit to my tax accountant. She had already a hard time to understand and book BTC exchange profits

I don't really understand - the interest *is* the inflation isn't it?

I think you are right. There will be a high demand for CLAMs, because it has such a good interest rate, which will outperform inflation in the end, until it stabilize at a high exchange rate. The only problem at the moment is the technical difficulties that you have to run your own CLAM client, if you don't want to invest in a gambling site, and the usual trader might not be comfortable with it. A reputable investment company should create a CLAM staking pool service.