Topic: Just going to vent to you about how we the people(miners) are getting ripped (Read 4494 times)

When there's blood in the streets, buy.

When everyone else is buying, sell.

People have a hard time separating mining profit/loss and currency speculation profit/loss. If you are mining for profit, do not spend more (in bitcoin) on a miner then you predict it will generate in its life time. Of course you would also need to factor in time value of money, operating costs, ect.

Great post
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1mgh0s/well_despite_all_the_talk_of_never_seeing_a_roi_i/cc91870

[–]historian1111 66 points 14 hours ago
People need to STOP using fiat exchange rates to calculate mining profitability. Doesn't matter if you use USD/EUR/YEN/POUNDS.
Think about what you're actually doing when you buy a mining device. You are buying a machine that does one thing and one thing ONLY, it makes bitcoins. Infact, for all intents and purposes, it only makes a finite amount of bitcoins.
If you are smart, you can calculate how many bitcoins your miner is likely to ever make. If you buy a miner for 100BTC, and it only mines 90BTC, then you have lost 10BTC.
Now heres the trick that manufacturers do to rip off idiots. They have calculated that the miner will only make 90BTC, so instead of plugging it in and running it for a year or so, they try to sell you the miner for 100BTC! Not only do they get 10BTC more, but they get their return right away. (The time value of money is also valuable)
So instead of selling the miner to you at 100BTC, they just say '$10,000' (assuming the exchange rate was $100/btc). This tricks most people into trying to worry about what the future exchange rate is. But its actually irrelevant!
Why? Because with your $10,000 you could buy 100BTC right now on an exchange, instead of buying a miner that will only return 90BTC to you. So, you're effectively paying $10,000/90 = $111 per BTC instead of $100 per BTC. You just got ripped off.
When you buy a miner that does not ROI in BTC terms, you are basically paying a higher exchange rate then you can get today on MTGOX.
Another way to look at is, is imagine that I tell you to send me 100BTC or $10,000, and in return i'll give you 90BTC back. Only an idiot would say "don't worry, even though i got 90BTC back, i'll make up for it when the exchange rate goes up! " You're still missing out on 10BTC that you would have if you just bought on MTGOX!

+1

Do you really believe network difficulty will drop soon? Come on, seriously? We have tons of asics to be soon delivered from KNC and other companies. Tons of ghash/s paid overpriced. I say difficulty will grow even faster than now.

I have some amount of bitcoins, I always look for a good investment but currently in BTC asic mining world there are absolutely NONE ! I'm not some enthusiast to care about network security, I simply want to earn some money when I invest.

Every offer that I analyse is a huge gamble, every offer gives loss in my calculation or barely small profit (with high risk). Even the Bitfury miners with devices delivered according to promises are not sure to get their money back, not mentioning shit like BFL where you recieve unit after a year and you can say goodbye to your roi - unless you find a sucker who will pay double for your order. BFL even doesn't accept refunds lol, take an example from Yifu. He did not deliver on time, he gives full refund. He is a scumbag as well because he sold our chips to Asia resellers like alibaba.com. That was the reason of adelay and turning his chips into not profitable. I was one of his customers, lucky for me I had "red light" moment when I decided to auction my chips and made some profit.

Recently I bought some GPUs to mine altcoins, your advice is good on that. My analysis showed that this is the only shot for now to go on with mining cryptocurrency.

My bitcoins are burning my pocket but I won't give them for overpriced products to greedy asic manufacturers.

Of course I never count on BTC value rise with my calculations because this is retarded. If you want to speculate with BTC value just buy BTC, not a miner. You will earn a lot more if your speculations were right.

I really should ignore Yip-Yip... that way I could laugh every time I see "Yip-yip this user has been ignored'  Kinda like I ignore the little dogs that go yip-yip all the time.

We know what game you are upto areshole .....how are your personal mining operations going

Going to  release any more product today or going to keep the diff low

FTC I can hear the train coming down the track...!!!

One of the more cogent posts I've seen here in months...

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/


Historical Difficulty Increase
30 Day   122 %
60 Day   331 %
90 Day   600 %

Batch 1 Avalon miners didn't earn that much
http://cointext.com/bitcoin-mining-profitability-an-example/

+1

Speak for yourself. I (the people) was capable of working out that pre-ordering an ASiC with a non-certain delivery date and unknown future difficulty  is an unnecessary risk. I buy coins instead, it's enough of a risk and I'll win big if BTC succeeds. No need to mine, the easy magic money making machine doesn't exist.

Surprised? If they can't even get their math right when trying to lie (or sound smart) they obviously got taken for a ride on the Bitcoin ASIC death hole.

SATOSHI FOREST!!!!!!!!!!

Thanks for the shout out.

Jason King
Sean's Outpost
Keeper of the Forest

Indeed, the only time an Avalon could have made 100-200 BTC a day was back in June 2011 or earlier.

Can you elaborate on retail era?

It may not be perfect, but the growth since January has been remarkably steady on an exponential rate: http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed.png.  This won't keep up forever, but it will help using that as a guideline to see if it's worth it.  Nobody can predict where difficulty will go, but there is a lot more mining hardware going to come online in the next year.

The funny thing is if the calculator is even close to correct on its estimates then in most cases you can see spending the money now to buy the Bitcoins and holding them is - at the very least - the same as spending the money to buy the hardware to mine.  That is, you will get the same number of coins as you would have mined.  And there is no electricity cost.  And no risking shipping/production delays.

It's up to the individual, of course - but hopefully anyone entering the mining fray will have a good understanding of what they are getting into and not expecting that its just "free money".

As others have pointed out, this is nonsense.

At January first 2013— long before any avalon miners existed regardless of what Chinese conspiracy theories you have— difficulty was 2979636.

At 60GH/s this would have resulted in 10.13 BTC/day, an order of magnitude higher than you claim. By the time any were reported in anyone's hands anywhere the difficulty was 2968775 ... very slightly _lower_, which is again evidence that no one was turning on some big mystery asic farms at the time.

This bit of complete nonsense degrades what is otherwise an OK post, you ought to fix it.

No one saw the network effect from the European Debt crisis and Cypress.  Not even Avalon...if you ask me...it should always be the standard that any bitcoin mining hardware companies should also be willing to accept bitcoin as a form of payment - Avalon saw this no differently.  If BTC had followed a more linear steady growth trend, it would probably have stayed at a lower rate for longer periods of time and there would be less demand for hardware.  I, like a great majority of other users here, got into bitcoin AFTER learning that the price of it could potentially Skyrocket in value,  not before.  


Why is it that every time I keep seeing people complain about not being able to perpetually make heaps and heaps of money simply for processing power - dude its Jurassic Park/Concrete Jungle status.  "Life Finds A Way"  which is why mining kept being pushed off to technology that could increase efficiency to stay above diminishing returns.  


Guys....MINE ALT COINS....seriously....MINE ALT COINS  when diff is too high for you to sit with.  Obviously there is a bit of a gamble here that depends on your belief as to whether or not the price will go up.  If you think it goes up a whole bunch then you should consider holding onto your mined coins a bit longer.


To me, it seems as though the only ones who actually feel the urge to complain, those who are quick to curse this gift of "free money essentially" seem to desire selling btc immediately for local fiat...this was always meant to be an activity that marginally rewards you for protecting the network.  The block reward halving is a way to wean out the reward structure for early adopters.  The thing is that alt-coins can and are sold on exchanges for BTC and can be mined at a much higher rate.  

Do not trick yourself into thinking that a sustainable career path could be made by mining btc and playing the hardware arms race upgrade game.  Hold your mined coins and only sell a small portion at any given time so that you don't lose from any other potential price climbs....conversely, if you really want your investment to pan out better (talking about if you dropped Grands upon grands on ASICS HW or GPU for scryptcoin), then start TELLING YOUR LOCAL MERCHANTS TO ACCEPT CRYPTO!  Keep a few bitcents on a mobile wallet, show them the mobile wallet and explain that is money in your pocket that could be in theirs if they are willing to accept BTC in addition to Cash and Cards.  

SATOSHI FOREST FTW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


FWIW I'll leave you with this bit on mining.genesisblock calculator = their calculation doesn't do network retarget adjustment - it does Exponential Curve Rates for Difficulty.  As we all know, asics HW MFG doesnt double month after month, sales do not double month after month, and if more people follow my advice with mining alts- that is hashpower that gradually transitions onto alt-chains as well.  Put it this way, do you buy 1 miner the first month, 2 miners the 2nd, 4 the 3rd month, 8 the 4th month, 16 the 5th month, 32 by six months in???  Can you really see 1 person even being able to manage that level of miners?  I don't...its not realistic.  Well the genesis block calculator seems to think that is absolutely realistic.  Yes its my opinion....no one really knows what to expect within the coming months.

Thank you.