I have the DE node up and running again since yesterday.
All is running fine on it so far (touch wood) and the DNS for anyone who connects or reconnects to de.kano.is points back to it.
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Anyone wanting a probability number for 350% we just went past:
0.96980261657768 350.000% 1 in 33.1
Yep on any pool you expect about one in 33 blocks to be 350% or more.
kano-san, I love this geeky math stat stuff! Got a question, does the chance of finding a block at a given % of hash follow a normal distribution, or is it based of a different distribution curve. i.e. if we have a 1:33.1 chance of finding a block of 350% or higher does that equate to the opposite end of the curve, such that we also have a 1:33.1 chance of finding a block of (1/350%) 28.6% or lower?
Which we have, many times, on this pool btw!!
The calculation for CDF I use is 1 - e^(-ratio)
It's not to specify a point on the 'graph' but the summation of the possibilities above (or below) that point.
So no it wont be simple inverse of the % ratio.
As with your example, the CDF of 0.286 is:
0.24873738405311 28.600% 1 in 1.3
So 'most'
blocks (about 3/4) are expected to be above 28.6%
The number, you can read from that, is 1-0.2487... or 75.1%
However, that also means that 24.9% (about 1/4) of blocks are expected to be under 28.6%
Checking our history, indeed the number is ... 122 out of 463 - a fraction better than expected but close.
(122 includes our first orphan coz we are discussing probabilities here, not reward calculations)
