Topic: KNIFE IMMINENT (Read 6976 times)

after seeing this thread for like.. weeks, i need to express my bad feeling about it:

useless, panik spreading "KNIFE IMMINENT!" - bullshit thread. doomsday is at 12.12.2012, not NOW!

the "knife"-metaphor makes me kind of aggresive, excuse me.

if there is anything like a "knife" it is somebody selling 10k bitcoins - OH MY GOOD, THAT IS SO BAD, I BETTER SHOOT MYSELF IN THE FACE!
..get over it. price moves. 


..

stop opening such threads, please. we don't need neither "KNIFE IMMINENT" nor "RALLY ABOUT TO EXPLODE" threads.
thanks

guys, let's get back to topic:

imminent knife is imminent.. or.. is it?

Walls are just people jockeying for positions

Gewure: you get pissed by bearish threads because you have a long position

after seeing this thread for like.. weeks, i need to express my bad feeling about it:

useless, panik spreading "KNIFE IMMINENT!" - bullshit thread. doomsday is at 12.12.2012, not NOW!

the "knife"-metaphor makes me kind of aggresive, excuse me.

if there is anything like a "knife" it is somebody selling 10k bitcoins - OH MY GOOD, THAT IS SO BAD, I BETTER SHOOT MYSELF IN THE FACE!
..get over it. price moves. 


..

stop opening such threads, please. we don't need neither "KNIFE IMMINENT" nor "RALLY ABOUT TO EXPLODE" threads.
thanks

 

Shit is crap.

Calculus aside, what is the forum sentiment in your opinion, and how do you use this to decide on price movement in the near term?

I made my position clear on that. I think we need to hit panic/despair before we get to the bottom. Since the new year rallies I would say optimism has remained pretty high.

Calculus aside, what is the forum sentiment in your opinion, and how do you use this to decide on price movement in the near term?

I made my position clear on that. I think we need to hit panic/despair before we get to the bottom. Since the new year rallies I would say optimism has remained pretty high.

i can agree with you here. many more things than strict technical analysis go into my decision-making. using this forum as a sentiment gauge works really well, actually.

+1

I got my bachelor's in mathematics over 30 years ago, along with another in economics with a concentration in quantitative methods. Grad school was EE with a concentration in computer science, I never finished it as I was concurrently working in the financial services industry and suddenly found myself busy being buried in money, or so it seemed at the time. No problem is ever completely solved  

Calculus is great, linear algebra is really cool, I had a knack for abstract algebra, and I found probability, stats, and game theory very stimulating because it was often counterintuitive at the start.

What I learned on the job was the importance of marketing and social engineering. I got to observe a great deal of it, as well as participate. When it comes to investments and speculation, the fact of the matter is that there are quite a few standard "plays" around, particularly for a 500 pound gorilla, and it doesn't always have to be just a smash and grab deal either.

I'm not going to reiterate points I've made previously about market capitalization, the promotional cycle of an investment, etc. I'm not going to point to the Hunt brothers manipulation of the silver market, the selling of "Japan Inc" in the 1980s, or the dozens of small cap scams I studied in the 1990s when I took an interest in the behavioral psychology of fraud in the financial markets, nor will I regale the board with first hand tales of the madness of crowds during the real estate lending boom/bust of the first decade of the 21st century.

IMO, bitcoin is not a good fit for a purely quantitative/technical approach. A post I never made here a few weeks ago was in response to a thread asking "If you were the manipulator, what would you do next?". One possibility that crossed my mind was to start a technical analysis thread in an attempt to gain adherents, a block of votes in the market if you will. It's a lot easier to lead lambs to slaughter if you get them to follow you first. I lack the inclination to do so myself, I don't do much other than write equity options for income these days, but the idea seemed like a natural.

IMO, bitcoin is not a good fit for a purely quantitative/technical approach.

There is a problem using this as a general rule on markets. The more traders follow this rule, the more true it becomes -- but a trader that simply dampens oscillations will ultimately eat all those who follow trends too much. In such a situation, it's those who break trends who get the money of those who followed them.

As always, the market will compete to eradicate any pattern that gives information on the expectation value of the price. Depending on the time-scale, profits, and complexity of the pattern it might take a while though.

trends DO yield information on 'expectation value'; in a perfect-information market it would not happen, but in real markets price has momentum. and thus scaled derivatives and oscillators are useful in identifying trends (and their limits -- tops, bottoms).