Topic: KNIFE IMMINENT - page 2. (Read 7039 times)

+1

I got my bachelor's in mathematics over 30 years ago, along with another in economics with a concentration in quantitative methods. Grad school was EE with a concentration in computer science, I never finished it as I was concurrently working in the financial services industry and suddenly found myself busy being buried in money, or so it seemed at the time. No problem is ever completely solved  

Calculus is great, linear algebra is really cool, I had a knack for abstract algebra, and I found probability, stats, and game theory very stimulating because it was often counterintuitive at the start.

What I learned on the job was the importance of marketing and social engineering. I got to observe a great deal of it, as well as participate. When it comes to investments and speculation, the fact of the matter is that there are quite a few standard "plays" around, particularly for a 500 pound gorilla, and it doesn't always have to be just a smash and grab deal either.

I'm not going to reiterate points I've made previously about market capitalization, the promotional cycle of an investment, etc. I'm not going to point to the Hunt brothers manipulation of the silver market, the selling of "Japan Inc" in the 1980s, or the dozens of small cap scams I studied in the 1990s when I took an interest in the behavioral psychology of fraud in the financial markets, nor will I regale the board with first hand tales of the madness of crowds during the real estate lending boom/bust of the first decade of the 21st century.

IMO, bitcoin is not a good fit for a purely quantitative/technical approach. A post I never made here a few weeks ago was in response to a thread asking "If you were the manipulator, what would you do next?". One possibility that crossed my mind was to start a technical analysis thread in an attempt to gain adherents, a block of votes in the market if you will. It's a lot easier to lead lambs to slaughter if you get them to follow you first. I lack the inclination to do so myself, I don't do much other than write equity options for income these days, but the idea seemed like a natural.

also THIS. this is the point.

trends DO yield information on 'expectation value'; in a perfect-information market it would not happen, but in real markets price has momentum. and thus scaled derivatives and oscillators are useful in identifying trends (and their limits -- tops, bottoms).

+9000

i think you and i agree on more than you think. you've very masterfully stated what i've been griping about for a while about "the Manipulator". you've also pointed out that my method does work, and works via the tendency of markets to swing from overbought to oversold (see: trends have a strange tendency to continue more than expected...)

however, i don't understand your point about any "generally mathematical concept". The only general concept used here is the fundamental theorem of calculus: that the derivative of a [continuous] function is equal in magnitude to the slope of the function at any point. The function P(), the price function, is just whatever the price is: that function is equivalent, mathematically, to the function that the market mechanism is computing. as traders you are aware that this is a wildly erratic function: many economists (Elliot) believe it to be infinitesimally complex, i.e. a fractal! But it can be smoothed and slopes can be figured, trends can be identified, and profit can be made because trends have a strange tendency to continue more than expected....

i hope i have clarified my previous points

IMO, arepo's claims are wrong about calculus in general but correct on the manipulation and correct on the part that the method implied could be used to make money from October to now.

In each of the cases, there is a statistical argument in it. The statements on forecasts use additional assumptions, which seem to boil down to trends giving nonzero information on expectation value. This should not be the case normally, and is not a generally correct mathematical concept. However, reading Goomboo's posts, trends have a strange tendency to continue more than expected on some markets, very especially on Bitcoin in the last year.

On big instead of small players acting on the market: all we get is few large movements instead of many small ones. This doesn't really change the general nature of the market, just gives it a little more noise on larger scales. There is no magical power in money that enables one to manipulate others. Sure, you can place a few manipulative large orders, but only if you accept the fact that they may be filled, because there's always a player around who could to that if he wanted. Okay, people who are overly manipulated by far-away orders can be manipulated, true, but that behavior is asking for it.

Claiming that the market is controlled by the large traders only is overdoing it. There's also little reason to assume their psychology and objectives being much different from smaller traders.

wow Im convinced, arepo I will be following your trading advice.
please make more threads, I will donate btc to you.

+1

@arepo
How is stating the limitations of calculus a demonstration of a "blatant lack of knowledge of calculus"?  It would seem at this point you're just trolling.

Yes, calculus is great, in fact I have a degree in mathematics, but math is nothing but trouble if you don't understand the limitations and assumptions you are working with.

i've addressed this before. in fact, i've made a whole thread about it.

briefly: manipulated movements are large, sudden, unpredictable, and unprofitable except by luck.

also, "THE MANIPULATOR" is a hypothesis.

most of the volatility we see is from leveraging on bitcoinica,

and there is still an underlying trend formed by the collective movement of everybody else's trades.

in other words, manipulators move the market, charts show and predict how the market reacts to the movement.

did you know in october that the price was going up? nice hindsight bias, dumbass.

Calculus is powerful, and I've likely known about it longer than you've been alive.  But you know what determines bitcoin price at this stage in the game?  Big players /manipulatorS, with $50k+ BTC/$250k+ USD, and when they choose to enter or exit the market.  Predict what they're going to do, and you'll know where the game is headed.  Your charts have more in common with tea leaves than with a predictive model of bitcoin prices.

So, you've been doing this since October, when we hit rock bottom pricing of $2 per BTC (and we hit that again in Dec.), and since then BTC has increased roughly three fold and you're up 50%. That's not very good, as basically luck alone and guessing you should invest when we hit $2 would have given you much greater returns.

Shit is crap. Cut the calculus for dummies bullcrap.

Just post pictures of your shits. Superimpose some charts on the turds. That'll tell us where the market is headed.

fantastic post; i haven't such blatant lack of knowledge of calculus in a single post since the person to whom i was responding when i wrote the post you quoted.

so let's see: if we have a function (discontinuous, mind you), and we want to know if its "very next" value will be higher or lower than its present, you want to know if it has a positive or negative slope. the problem, however, is a single point in a discontinuous function is NOT differentiable. so your above challenge is impossible.

HOWEVER, using charts can be almost exactly described by this intent. if one smooths the data using averages, for instance (even the data you look at when you look at price charts has been smoothed, usually by boxplots), and then graphs the derivative of this now-continuous function, you might get an idea of what kind of trend is occurring. in fact, this is extremely easy, and can be done by just about anyone during a strong trend. long-term PVT and Accumulation/Distribution Line will both be increasing, and thus the Chaikin Oscillator ('momentum' or scaled-slope of the ACC/DIST) will be relatively constant and positive. guaranteed profits, like stealing from a baby!

identifying tops and bottoms (protecting those guaranteed profits) is more difficult. using indicators that also look at volume is helpful, as price and volume are the two core pieces of "data" that are free, information-wise, in a market, and should always both be considered. also looking at oscillators which are slightly different than indicators that just act as scaled derivatives is helpful because they try to track the 'momentum' of price moves -- that is, the tendency of markets to swing from 'overbought' to 'oversold' -- which are signals of a market reversal.

tl;dr put your money where your mouth is; i've been trading on my analysis since october and am up 50%, while, though i am not one to believe everything i read, you just got 'goxed'.

fantastic post. I dont think Ive seen this much nonsense in a single post in a long time.

since you can differentiate this function, why not just use the function itself to see where the price is going? guaranteed profits, like stealing from a baby.

i think you're wrong. this movement was preceded by a few short-term indicators turning bullish. also, this:


the depth at mtgoxlive is manipulated. we don't have nearly that much support on the ask side. the bottom was when we bounced off $5.05.

$5.00 will hold. i was wrong; there was no panic. maybe we're all a little more mature as traders now

so nothing happened, pretty much?

I just looked at goxlive, and it looked a bit bullish on price action, looked like a short term rising wedge might be forming. I thought maybe we could be heading back up. Then I checked RSI hasn't bottomed OBV/PVT are still tanking. I think its a bull trap.

If we break to the upside It won't hold, it might push through 5.50 to get everyone on board, but it will top out at 5.70 and then look for new lows.

This medium term correction has to run its course, my money is still on retest of ~2.20. If we test 2.20 and it holds then that will become e early strong support level. Any lower and people will be all at sea again wondering what do.

new breaking signal!

10-day Money Flow Index just crossed strongly positive after being oversold yesterday. we may be bottoming out yet.

i will predict the low, when i see the signals. it's not for a little ways still... the month-scale Chaikin oscillator is reaching a local minimum (momentum of downtrend decreasing), but i doubt this is stable. definitely still bear market.

EDIT: another small signal; AROON crossover on the 10-day scale. combined with the shifting depth on mtgoxlive, i think we might have already hit the bottom during the last downspike to $5.05. perhaps quasi-stable here, and i suspect we'll test $5.00 again. as long as the resistance holds, it will delay the falling knife. otherwise, bear market on.

I am not a manipulator. But if the price goes below $ 1 to fuck, I'll buy all the coins! And placing a few to buy \ sell walls ... I have no idea what would happen, but
i can consult with other reputable professionals ... The general consensus ...

not at all. panic is like the polar opposite of the frothing of the mouth that occurred on the forums at the peak of the $7.20 bubble. it's a sentiment thing, not exact, that wasn't exactly the pith of the OP...