Although not many people is talking about this, today the 2nd leg of the Copa del Rey between Athletic de Bilbao and Osasuna will be held in San Mamés stadium.
Athletic Club is the 2nd team in victories (23 titles) in this competition, only behind Barça (30), but it is also the team who lost most finals of the Cup ever, last time in 2021 when they were defeated twice in the same month because 2020's final was postponed due to Covid. In addition, they haven't won this competition since 1984, so the fans are eager to win the trophy again after such a long time.
It won't be easy to get to the final though, because they are already a goal behind from the 1st leg. But it will be a beautiful match to see. There is more life beyond the Clásico that everybody is talking about.
I think that match will be like the first leg; no much goals. Both teams don't score much in matches like this.
I tip Bilboa to win but I can't say for certain if they will qualify for the final. Osasuna on the other hand can be very defensive when they have to. Bilboa will press more while Osasuna will hold on and try to make use of the counter when they get the chance. They cant press too much because Bilboa have very fast players up front that can hurt you on the counter.
I believe the match is going to be more interesting than the first leg because most teams will lie to give their all since its the last leg and final chance to get to the final.
For some points I agree with what you say. in particular, that Osasuna will play more defensively and counterattack if they have the chance. So, theoretically that in this fight Bilboa will control the game. I mean, the home team will dominate the ball possession. So, what I consider is whether Bilboa is able to create many opportunities in this match. because if you refer to the first leg, Bilboa always finds it difficult to create many opportunities. because of that too, I agree that this fight will not produce many goals.
On the other hand, I see that Osasuna did not let the home team dictate the course of this match. that means, they will also provide quite a fierce resistance. however, as Osasuna had an aggregate advantage in the first leg. at the very least, they would play more cautiously. even so, I suspect that this fight will end in a draw or Osasuna can steal the gap and win this fight.
Apart from all that, if we refer to the available odds, it seems that the probability of winning for Bilbao is quite large. even so, I'm more interested in taking risks and choosing to bet on Osasuna with quite tempting odds.