Real Madrid = 49 points
Barcelona = 42 points
It is unlikely that Real Madrid will lose 3 games to the point that Barcelona will stay at the top of the table. This season Real Madrid will be champion. At most Barcelona could finish in second place, but they will have to pray that Atlético Madrid loses points. Barcelona is doing well in the European Champions League, I think at least there they might have a chance
Honestly I don't dare to say Barcelona will overtake Real Madrid at the top of the standings, at least Barcelona can hinder Real Madrid's progress by beating them again in the second meeting of the El Clasico match. but before this match will be held, the closest match is the Madrid derby match. of course ATM will work hard to reduce the gap in points, if they are able to do so then the gap in points will be even thinner. but it's not easy, as well as for Real Madrid whose players have not fully recovered from injury. it could be that Barcelona ends up in 3rd place, yes if their performance is not consistent. on the other hand, the competition between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid is still quite tight because being 4 points ahead is not a very safe distance. let's say we agree that the probability of Real Madrid to retain the La Liga trophy is very high, but La Liga still has 17 matches until the end of the competition. on its way to the end of the season, perhaps one of the teams we mentioned in this post has problems and slips. because, 17 matches is quite a long time.