You're kinda right. The derby of Madrid seems to be a draw if we take a closer look at the games between this two and the current standings in LaLiga. A lot of people and football specialists are thinking that this year ATL.Madrid will win LaLiga just because both Barcelona and Real Madrid had a rough start and I can't deny this opinions because Barcelona is clearly not gonna join the fight for the tittle and Real Madrid are there but not entirely as we know they have problems with some players that don't want to sign the new contracts and this might affect them in the last weekends of LaLiga.
I think a draw would be a bit of a risk, but at the same time I would say playing on Real would never be a wrong move, sure there is a situation in the league right now that shows ATM higher, so that means they have been better this year, but I feel like this is not going to be an example of that, Real started the league very bad and that is why they are second, otherwise they haven't been that bad, which is why I believe it is Real after all and they are not doing as good as they should, and could drop to third place instead of going to first place, which is why I think they will give it all.
However if ATM wins, that will guarantee their situation against Real, at least for a while, it would be a six point game, and I think it is going to be a huge advantage for them. I really do not know which one I should gamble on, maybe I will just skip this one for now.