They are 7 points away in the standings now, if Atletico Madrid can win this match then they will close the gap to 4 points, but if Girona can win then they will be more comfortable in 3rd place in the standings.
Atletico Madrid will try hard to win this match, because if they lose then they will be displaced by Atletico Bilbao who are just below them with a distance of only 2 points.
It is quite difficult to predict who will win in a tight match like this. Because I think their chances are not much different, 40/60 is probably the percentage I can give in this match.
With the way Girona have been dropping points for some time now and looking at how strong Atletico Madrid have become even they showed their capacity in their Champions league game against Borussia Dortmund where they won by 2:1 and have an advantage of qualifying for the champions league semi finals so if they use same energy on Girona, they will win though Girona needs to focus more on the rest of their matches in other to have a spot on Champions league next season because if Atletico madrid wins that means the gap between the both teams will start closing up.
The only thing I think will affect Atletico Madrid is that since they played match today against Borussia Dortmund, most of their players may be tired playing Girona just within a short time after the champions league game.