They are 7 points away in the standings now, if Atletico Madrid can win this match then they will close the gap to 4 points, but if Girona can win then they will be more comfortable in 3rd place in the standings.
Atletico Madrid will try hard to win this match, because if they lose then they will be displaced by Atletico Bilbao who are just below them with a distance of only 2 points.
It is quite difficult to predict who will win in a tight match like this. Because I think their chances are not much different, 40/60 is probably the percentage I can give in this match.
Atletico Madrid will be very motivated to win that match. They have to maintain their ranking because the athletic club still has the opportunity to shift their position. Girona is quite comfortable in third place with a 7 point advantage over Atletico. If they lose it will not change their position in third place but they have the chance to lose third place. Girona's performance has been inconsistent in the last few games and that makes me bet that Atletico will win the game. Girona's inconsistency means I would never put my money on Girona.