"The probability to find an address with funds on it within the next 24h is therefore 0.00000000112258370293%."
Hey Rico, can you share the formula that calculates this number?
And earlier today (when above number was smaller) I bragged in the German forum about this number:
0.00000000000000000045% (2016-09-17)
0.00000000000000200548% (2016-09-23)
0.00000000002801022860% (2017-03-28)
0.00000000108372998990% (2017-04-17)
Is it only speed based, does it take the progression of the project into account? and what about reset / reissued blocks?
The formula is:
my $space = 159 - log_bin($num_adr_funds);
my $keys_day = $srch_speed * 86400 * 1000000; # how many keys per day are searched
my $prob24 = 1 / (2 ** ($space - $bits)); # 24h prob: 1/(effective search space - space searched)
$prob24 *= $keys_day; # multiply with PK/24h rate (seconds * pk/s)
$prob24 *= 100; # * 100 (for %)
$bits is currently 51.32
The 159 is 2^159 keys to search, as this resolves to 2^160 addresses
$srch_speed is the 24h Mkeys/s average you see, therefore * 10
6 * seconds in day
So this number gets bigger in time (because we have covered search space) and/or if the pool gets faster.
If the pool gets slower, this number may also become smaller. (search speed = 0 -> probability = 0)
Reissued blocks are not relevant, because the "space searched" takes only PoW blocks into account.
Promised and undelivered blocks do not count as searched space.
Rico