Missed out Bitcoin mining saturation which I waited for. Bitcoin difficulty is absolutely stable since 27 Nov 2014 (around 5 months) and is 40,007,470,271.
http://www.bitcoinx.com/bitcoin-average-90-days-chart/Mining boom looks over.
Previous mining boom finished not far from 2011 $32 price high. After some period of difficulty stabilization - price collapsed and then entered long (long for that period - Feb...Aug 2012, i remember it was SOOO LONG that time) "silence phase", when price was relatively stable and fluctuated around $5.
http://www.bitcoinx.com/bitcoin-average-all-days-logarithmic-chart/I compared not once current situation with 2011, as 2011 high was great wave I (that time) and ATH I recognize as historical wave I.
So what that difficulty and those times (those were the times!
) tells me about what I want to tell all of you...
Taking all bullshit above,
I predict! (Note - that was my market future projection since Aug 2012 which I kept in secret, that was my plan for next bubble that time. I posted it as bubble has gone and difficulty stabilized.).
1. Further price collapse is possible, but not required. If it will continue collapse, it should may it for one more year.
2. After a significant bottom I predict a very fucking long "silence phase". Collapse in 2011 took 6 months. Silence took also about 6 months - actually 5. So if we have collapsing time now for more than year - then silence phase should take not less of that time.
But silence phase is good for business. In 2012 it let great adoption of bitcoin payments when bitcoin price was so "stable" so "long".
I will recognize significant bottom at the following conditions.
1. Price will hit the weekly upper BB and then collapse into weekly 20 sma.
2. oh well, nothing more ))
Then it should collapse to weekly 20 sma and stay around there for all "silence phase".
So here is it - plan till 2016-2017. As I predicted right after ATH, this will be long and painful decline till 2016...2017.
