See you in 2 weeks.
Topic: Legendary one day? - page 25. (Read 103089 times)
1st try: nope
See you in 2 weeks.
See you in 2 weeks.
Hmm, seems i didn't hit it today.
activity adjusts again today right? I don't know if mine has updated yet...have another shot at legendary today I believe...lol
I AM REBORNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN
as legendary
Liking the colored coin
as legendary
Liking the colored coin
Congratulations !
I AM REBORNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN
as legendary
Liking the colored coin
as legendary
Liking the colored coin
Thanks to all who have kept this going, I lurk here still 
. I still enjoy looking at what numbers people hit legendary at. The prob 1 and 2 is pretty amazing to look at chart. So big thanks to shorena on doing all of that.
Congrats to the many I have not posted for. I tried to cutback on amount of times I was doing that.
. I still enjoy looking at what numbers people hit legendary at. The prob 1 and 2 is pretty amazing to look at chart. So big thanks to shorena on doing all of that.Congrats to the many I have not posted for. I tried to cutback on amount of times I was doing that.
Ahh..I am at activity:1008 and by Tomorrow it will be 1022 , I guess i am of the the unlucky guys..
We'll be waiting for you buddy! Just one more day
.Just noticed that i am legendary Now!
Gratz, these long weekends always mess up my week. Time for an update.
Code:
name act prob.1 prob.2
cagrund[5] 882 42.19% 9.46%
keithers[3] 882 42.19% 9.46%
BitCoinDream[4] 882 42.19% 9.46%
Xialla[2] 896 47.66% 10.45%
prob.1/2? Yes, these are two different views on the event of hitting legendary as discussed starting with this[42] post.
act = current activity+14
prob.1 = ((act-774)/256)
prob.2 = 14/1030-act
a picture to help understand how these two approaches evolve differently -> http://i.imgur.com/XYzBfm9.png
Code:
name act prob.
redsn0w 784 hit it
shorena 812 hit it
EcuaMobi 826 hit it
TheNewAnon135246 840 hit it
koshgel 854 hit it
devthedev 868 hit it
minifrij 896 hit it
tspacepilot 924 hit it
Blazed 924 hit it
alani123 938 hit it
Mitchełł 952 hit it
EAL 952 hit it
notlist3d 952 hit it
OnkelPaul 966 hit it
xetsr 966 hit it
qwk 994 hit it
Lauda 994 hit it
defaced 1008 hit it
Lincoln6Echo 1013 hit it
mprep 1022 hit it
mcb1221 1022 hit it
[2] https://bitcointalksearch.org/user/xialla-103451
[3] https://bitcointalksearch.org/user/keithers-188912
[4] https://bitcointalksearch.org/user/bitcoindream-181001
[5] https://bitcointalksearch.org/user/cagrund-154816
[42] https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.14348133
Ahh..I am at activity:1008 and by Tomorrow it will be 1022 , I guess i am of the the unlucky guys..
We'll be waiting for you buddy! Just one more day
.Just noticed that i am legendary Now!
Congratulations mcb1221, welcome to the legendary club
!
swing and a miss for me today 
Ahh..I am at activity:1008 and by Tomorrow it will be 1022 , I guess i am of the the unlucky guys..
We'll be waiting for you buddy! Just one more day
.Just noticed that i am legendary Now!
I have just reached the starting point. 
Ahh..I am at activity:1008 and by Tomorrow it will be 1022 , I guess i am of the the unlucky guys..
We'll be waiting for you buddy! Just one more day
.Just noticed that i am legendary Now!
So I have about a 20% chance of legendary tomorrow per Shorena
20% seems excessively high, given that your activity is 812 now.
Has Shorena explained the calculation somewhere?
The range is 775 to 1030 (255 activity points)
If the next activity is 812+14 = 826 then it's 51 points into the 255-point range, i.e. 20%.
You can effectively rule out the 775 - 812 range (given that he hasn't become legendary until now).
So the range for keithers currently is 813 to 1030 (217 activity points)
He is going to gain 14 activity points in the next period.
So the probability of him becoming legendary in the next period is 14/217 = 6.5%
The probability I calculate is whther its among the first X activity points (as suchmoon calculated as well). Your approach would work as well.
I like 20 better than 6 lol
It's actually 50% - you'll either get it or not
So I have about a 20% chance of legendary tomorrow per Shorena
20% seems excessively high, given that your activity is 812 now.
Has Shorena explained the calculation somewhere?
The range is 775 to 1030 (255 activity points)
If the next activity is 812+14 = 826 then it's 51 points into the 255-point range, i.e. 20%.
You can effectively rule out the 775 - 812 range (given that he hasn't become legendary until now).
So the range for keithers currently is 813 to 1030 (217 activity points)
He is going to gain 14 activity points in the next period.
So the probability of him becoming legendary in the next period is 14/217 = 6.5%
The probability I calculate is whther its among the first X activity points (as suchmoon calculated as well). Your approach would work as well.
Ok. Then I guess that it is just keithers interpretation (that he has a 20% probability of becoming legendary when the activity period changes) which is incorrect.
Its just a different view on things. They have a 20% chance to become legendary with all past updates since 774 activity including the next change. They have an 6.5% change to become legendary with the next change. I will include both numbers with the next update (tomorrow?).
So I have about a 20% chance of legendary tomorrow per Shorena
20% seems excessively high, given that your activity is 812 now.
Has Shorena explained the calculation somewhere?
The range is 775 to 1030 (255 activity points)
If the next activity is 812+14 = 826 then it's 51 points into the 255-point range, i.e. 20%.
You can effectively rule out the 775 - 812 range (given that he hasn't become legendary until now).
So the range for keithers currently is 813 to 1030 (217 activity points)
He is going to gain 14 activity points in the next period.
So the probability of him becoming legendary in the next period is 14/217 = 6.5%
The probability I calculate is whther its among the first X activity points (as suchmoon calculated as well). Your approach would work as well.
I like 20 better than 6 lol
So I have about a 20% chance of legendary tomorrow per Shorena
20% seems excessively high, given that your activity is 812 now.
Has Shorena explained the calculation somewhere?
The range is 775 to 1030 (255 activity points)
If the next activity is 812+14 = 826 then it's 51 points into the 255-point range, i.e. 20%.
You can effectively rule out the 775 - 812 range (given that he hasn't become legendary until now).
So the range for keithers currently is 813 to 1030 (217 activity points)
He is going to gain 14 activity points in the next period.
So the probability of him becoming legendary in the next period is 14/217 = 6.5%
The probability I calculate is whther its among the first X activity points (as suchmoon calculated as well). Your approach would work as well.
Ok. Then I guess that it is just keithers interpretation (that he has a 20% probability of becoming legendary when the activity period changes) which is incorrect.
So fingers are crossed.
Best regards, Carsten.
Best regards, Carsten.
So I have about a 20% chance of legendary tomorrow per Shorena
20% seems excessively high, given that your activity is 812 now.
Has Shorena explained the calculation somewhere?
The range is 775 to 1030 (255 activity points)
If the next activity is 812+14 = 826 then it's 51 points into the 255-point range, i.e. 20%.
You can effectively rule out the 775 - 812 range (given that he hasn't become legendary until now).
So the range for keithers currently is 813 to 1030 (217 activity points)
He is going to gain 14 activity points in the next period.
So the probability of him becoming legendary in the next period is 14/217 = 6.5%
The probability I calculate is whther its among the first X activity points (as suchmoon calculated as well). Your approach would work as well.
So I have about a 20% chance of legendary tomorrow per Shorena
20% seems excessively high, given that your activity is 812 now.
Has Shorena explained the calculation somewhere?
The range is 775 to 1030 (255 activity points)
If the next activity is 812+14 = 826 then it's 51 points into the 255-point range, i.e. 20%.
You can effectively rule out the 775 - 812 range (given that he hasn't become legendary until now).
So the range for keithers currently is 813 to 1030 (217 activity points)
He is going to gain 14 activity points in the next period.
So the probability of him becoming legendary in the next period is 14/217 = 6.5%
So I have about a 20% chance of legendary tomorrow per Shorena
20% seems excessively high, given that your activity is 812 now.
Has Shorena explained the calculation somewhere?
The range is 775 to 1030 (255 activity points)
If the next activity is 812+14 = 826 then it's 51 points into the 255-point range, i.e. 20%.
Edit: actually it's 52 of 256 because 775 probably also counts... 20.3125%
So I have about a 20% chance of legendary tomorrow per Shorena
20% seems excessively high, given that your activity is 812 now.
Has Shorena explained the calculation somewhere?
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