I think we will see sideaway movement longer time,something really big has to happen to move btc price up
lower price will kill mining
lower price will kill mining? the difficulty is only going up. and that while the price has been going down for quite some time now. the only way i can see difficulty going down is when the price drops to low $100
if we stay in this current position for too long then the future miners will be so efficient that it will be profitable for them to mine even at a price below 100
How come I see Hero and Legendary members all the time, who don't understand how mining works?
well then explain what it is wrong in my statement, and not just "you're wrong" because we aren't going anywhere with your claim
If you mean that new tech will enable miners to stay profitable when BTC is under $100, while the network would just collapse if we continued to mine with current tech, then that would be wrong.
ok that's better, i meant exactly this, and i can't see how it will be wrong, besides that the network won't collapse, if for them it remains profitable to mine
i don't see any difference if the ratio will be always the same, let's say that now they are doing 2:1 ratio, in the sense of a 100% pure profit at the net of all cost, now, the price go to, let's say, 1/3 of what it is in this moment, so around 80(just to have a easy number) but their efficience will be so high that their electricity will be 1/3 too in cost, versus what it is now, so instead of wasting let's say 1GW/h they are wasting 300MW/h
in the end they will earn less yes, but there will be always profit as long as the ratio between profit and electricity cost will remain the same
I'm a bit confused by your example. But if a mining company has access to 1MW of continuous power draw (nobody has access to 1GW), that company would max that out on whatever tech is class leading. If they used to run 1Ph they will run 5PH with next gen. What you will see, if the price of BTC drops to $80, is that the network will consume less energy. This is due to that those with the highest costs will fall off the bandwagon and close shop, not because of mining HW efficiency. The same BTCs that are released at a fixed rate still pay for the costs of the network. The process will look the same regardless of the efficiency of the HW. The only difference would be the hashrate and difficulty.
If, however, the price dropped to $80 in the very near future, we might have a bit of a problem. The only 16nm miner in existence is the KnC Solar, and they're not selling them. If KnC keeps pumping out 16nm machines for their data centers, thus not allowing the hashrate to fall, we might get a situation where everyone else become almost instantly unprofitable. This will not be pretty. First of all, KnC will have more than 51% of the network. Secondly, even if they turn off some of their gear to avoid that, almost every other company, who doesn't have access to 16nm HW, will still see further operations as unfeasible. Just the fact that everyone knows that KnC has enough hashing power to kill the network is enough to kill the network. Not to mention what will happen with the price of BTC through all of this.
