Topic: Let the dumping begin... - page 2. (Read 4173 times)

Sry, not fair of me. It just happens quite often among the "seniors" and it baffles me.

The hashrate hasn't had a significant increase since november. Since then, the zigzag movement between 40 and 50 billion has been down to unprofitable miners bailing and profitable miners increasing their share and switching to newer gear. But the pain threshold for current tech at $220 is at a difficulty between 40-50billion. If we stay at the $220 mark when 5x more efficient next gen gear is introduced, then the pain threshold will gradually move up from roughly 50 billion to a difficulty of about 200-250billion. The difficulty chases the price+technology advancements. The price doesn't chase the mining costs. Remember, BTC output is fixed. Nor would all the miners turn unprofitable if the price moved below $100, regardless of current gen or next gen. The least profitable ones will bail and the remaining will be the best capitalized ones with the lowest costs. The cost per BTC for the remaining miners will be lowered accordingly due to the lower network hashrate and difficulty.

Admittedly, it is a bit unclear to me with what you mean by "current position". If you worry that price follows mining costs, like it can in other commodities, then that is wrong. If you mean that difficulty will remain unchanged and miners will just make a ton of extra profits, then that is wrong. If you mean that new tech will enable miners to stay profitable when BTC is under $100, while the network would just collapse if we continued to mine with current tech, then that would be wrong. The misunderstanding I see most often is that the price of BTC will fall down to the cost of production, because that's what traders are used to in commodities, and that was what I at first assumed you meant.

well then explain what it is wrong in my statement, and not just "you're wrong" because we aren't going anywhere with your claim

How come I see Hero and Legendary members all the time, who don't understand how mining works?

just had a look, and yes, they are impressive, but if the difficulty keeps rising the "more profitable" weeks/months will also stop being an advantage. then you have to buy other equipment to stay up to date.

Yes until everybody else has similar chips in their miners. Then mining chips are going to match the latest production node which only improves according to the now stalling moores law.

checks knc, they have announced their 16nm asic, more efficient , therefore less consumption(basically it is like approcing free electricity), it mean that they will make profit even with a lower price

what exactly do you mean with future miners? people who are going to buy hardware sooner or later to start mining? those who have dirt cheap power rates and already reached roi will always continue no matter what the price is, as long as they make profit.

Is that supposed to comforting?  

if we stay in this current position for too long then the future miners will be so efficient that it will be profitable for them to mine even at a price below 100

lower price will kill mining? the difficulty is only going up. and that while the price has been going down for quite some time now. the only way i can see difficulty going down is when the price drops to low $100

I think we will see sideaway movement longer time,something really big has to happen to move btc price up
lower price will kill mining

Wow...never knew kwukduck used to be a bull....always sad to see a bull-to-bear conversion.

Hehe made me laugh

Maybe i'm dead wrong, it wouldn't be the first time either but you're also aware that i made very accurate predictions in the past as well.

Right now the market is absolutely not doing what i'm expecting it to do on a small scale, but i feel strongly that the negativity towards bitcoin and the downward pressure are very high.

If we do not break this price point soon you can actually consider me quite neutral or even slightly positive on the future value.

My proctologist approves this message!

It's time to dump everyday. If you aren't dumping daily there is something wrong with you.

Ahh Kwukduck is talking trash again...

Bann him ore remove his legendary status to newbie and put him in the troll jail ore something.

You have wrong for 6 months and(speaking of repetition) have predicted 80 of the last two selloffs.

You are up there with Nagle (arguing bitcoin overpriced at 2 dollars..shortly goes up 500X) in terms of making legendary bad calls - selling your coins at 10 dollars then watching the price rise 120 fold. Fuck me that must sting!

Also something i noticed... People keep repeating that at every price level.
If it does drop like i predict you and many others will probably just say the same; "well it's looking pretty dimm right now, i'll wait for it to drop another 25% to buy..."
That's part of how we arrived at this low value in the first place.