On the other hand, I'd be more than happy to be wrong about this, because I'm waiting for $100/BTC too
Barring apocalyptic events like Satoshi dumping his coins, or BitFinex going under, or fundamentals like SHA2 broken, my prediction is that $100/BTC will only be touched for a few seconds during a flash crash in the absence of truly horrendous news.
This is a really dangerous time to speculate, as the market is putting to the question the long margins (which has always exceeded the shorts), but at the same time, the Bitlicense's comment period is nearing close and we could see Gemini and/or the ETF nuking the shorts from orbit.
What will happen next? Stay tuned... on the next episode of Bitcoin-Z.
From all your possibles disasters for bitcoind drop the only part i do believe is if price go down to 100 dollars the supply wont be enought, as people will invest a lot trying to get the bitcoin cheap, even knowing that bitcoin may not recover people will buy them.