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Topic: Lets get one thing straight: there will NOT be a run-up anytime soon - page 2. (Read 4973 times)

legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1005
This is kind of unsettling to watch.

I couldn't be a bigger proponent of Bitcoin. I talk about it constantly, I gave a speech at work (biotech) about it to a pretty large group of folks. I've bored my wife to death for hundreds of hours talking about how wonderful the whole thing is. I'm even spending most of my free time developing a Bitcoin business.

Having said all of that, there's no reason for the price to be as high as it is right now. It's rampant speculation, bots to drive the price up etc... Bitcoin might literally only be worth $20 right now. It's going to big some day in the distant future but all of this is just a giant hype cycle that will eventually subside. I do feel bad for all the folks right now dumping too much money into it because it IS going to go down quite a bit. There will be blood in the streets but then it will recover and slowly but surely hit levels we can't imagine now.  
Those ere some nice calculations and graphs.

You don't need graphs to make a statement like "there's no reason for it to be as high as it is".  If I as one of the biggest fans of Bitcoin recognizes that people have just lost their minds, I don't need a graph to illustrate that.

Also, how do you calculate stupidity? Like, Look there's tons of stupidity and then a little less and a little less. This equation shows that we can expect a lot more stupidity soon so it's going to blow up for sure!


*I'd say look at my other posts, I'm clearly not a fudster.
Not only do you need a graph, you need a graph with lines on it. And you need to talk about tulips too or you lose all credibility.

More seriously, you may be overestimating your own relative level of fanishness. Do you think you are the only one who has spent real-time months reading and studying and tinkering? Has nobody else bored their family and anyone else who will listen to tears? Have you taken a loan to buy more before we go to the moon?

Back up your claims if you can. Or don't. I don't mind.

Hmmm my eye spy a run of the mill perma bull.
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1265
The rally won't come before 80% has become bored and no longer thinks about Bitcoin's price. That's when we hit bottom.

We will have hit bottom when failllling stops posting Tongue
member
Activity: 112
Merit: 10
OP might be right, there is still too much optimism for a rally. Only when most if not all of the optimists are gone will we see the true bottom. I don't think it has to take a year or more though, a lot can happen in a year.

bitcoin is going to drop lower and lower
sr. member
Activity: 351
Merit: 250
I'm always grumpy in the morning.
OP might be right, there is still too much optimism for a rally. Only when most if not all of the optimists are gone will we see the true bottom. I don't think it has to take a year or more though, a lot can happen in a year.
legendary
Activity: 1498
Merit: 1000
Where are you from mate?

I am very interested in your background, before I mess with cryptos I had started an online Msc (Manchester Univ.) on Bioinformatics - biotech is my biggest love!

Probably you know Personal Genome Project (http://www.personalgenomes.org/) - I am trying to find a way to do this without having the privacy issues they have and be based in some sort of cryptographic/encryption scheme.

Maybe a blockchain could help?

Apologies for the off topic..
And where are YOU from mate? The thing above in bold is very interesting and important. Do you have any ideas on the subject?
Apologies for the off topic as well...
Greece - we need people to send the data anonymously but at the same time verifying that they are really theirs and also prevent 'double spending'.
full member
Activity: 144
Merit: 100
Where are you from mate?

I am very interested in your background, before I mess with cryptos I had started an online Msc (Manchester Univ.) on Bioinformatics - biotech is my biggest love!

Probably you know Personal Genome Project (http://www.personalgenomes.org/) - I am trying to find a way to do this without having the privacy issues they have and be based in some sort of cryptographic/encryption scheme.

Maybe a blockchain could help?

Apologies for the off topic..
And where are YOU from mate? The thing above in bold is very interesting and important. Do you have any ideas on the subject?
Apologies for the off topic as well...
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
bitcoin is going to nowhere but down, sell before it's too late

You're dumb, it's never "too late".
member
Activity: 112
Merit: 10
You lost it all because you didn't had the balls to hold I guess. You guys seem not to learn. You should learn from Warren Buffet. When he bought the Washington Post stocks he lost a lot of money, then 10 years later the 10K invested turned into 380K, except in 10 years these 7K dolllars will be 700K

Quote from: Warren Buffet
Stay away from [bitcoin]. It's a mirage, basically.

bitcoin is going to nowhere but down, sell before it's too late
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
Quote from: Warren Buffet
Stay away from [bitcoin]. It's a mirage, basically.

WB doesn't invest in Tech anything, figured your prestigious economics major buddies would have told you that already.
remember they're students, they ignore things like how warren buffet missed out on every tech move ever because he didn't believe in the internet when it started either. he's old school. he likes to invest in debt and real estate, as well as stock in undervalued companies.
full member
Activity: 152
Merit: 100
You lost it all because you didn't had the balls to hold I guess. You guys seem not to learn. You should learn from Warren Buffet. When he bought the Washington Post stocks he lost a lot of money, then 10 years later the 10K invested turned into 380K, except in 10 years these 7K dolllars will be 700K

To turn 7k into 700k, bitcoin price needs to go up 100 folds. I am not sure it can do this kind of wonder again and go up to 50k per coin.


Quote from: Warren Buffet
Stay away from [bitcoin]. It's a mirage, basically.

Warren Buffet belongs to the old money crowd. Can't expect him to understand crypto currency and cryptography.
hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 500
eh i think it will slowly rise, no bubble though

Slow rise in crypto will be followed by parabolic...
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
Trust me!
No one has anticipated what happened last year. There may very well be another reason this year or next year for the price to start another run-up. But we don't know the reason yet. We simply can't see into the future. That's the way it is Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
Quote from: Warren Buffet
Stay away from [bitcoin]. It's a mirage, basically.

WB doesn't invest in Tech anything, figured your prestigious economics major buddies would have told you that already.
sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 253
You lost it all because you didn't had the balls to hold I guess. You guys seem not to learn. You should learn from Warren Buffet. When he bought the Washington Post stocks he lost a lot of money, then 10 years later the 10K invested turned into 380K, except in 10 years these 7K dolllars will be 700K

Quote from: Warren Buffet
Stay away from [bitcoin]. It's a mirage, basically.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
You lost it all because you didn't had the balls to hold I guess. You guys seem not to learn. You should learn from Warren Buffet. When he bought the Washington Post stocks he lost a lot of money, then 10 years later the 10K invested turned into 380K, except in 10 years these 7K dolllars will be 700K

"Be greedy when others are fearful" -WB, in other words; anytime falling says anything, you should feel good about your decision to hold. Just think how many people claimed the US housing market would ruin the entire country and next the world. Now years later there's literally hundreds if not thousands of people who are literally millionaires because they knew to buy up all those "worthless" properties and hold them a few years.
sr. member
Activity: 322
Merit: 250
You lost it all because you didn't had the balls to hold I guess. You guys seem not to learn. You should learn from Warren Buffet. When he bought the Washington Post stocks he lost a lot of money, then 10 years later the 10K invested turned into 380K, except in 10 years these 7K dolllars will be 700K
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
this dead cat bounce is going to finish soon like the old ones

No dead cat bounce, live dog jump.  Sorry you loose all your money by selling at $460 falllling.  Chu Chu, no train 4 u.
member
Activity: 112
Merit: 10
There will be a rally soon then, as it comes from a guy who prefers shitcoins to the real coin.

this dead cat bounce is going to finish soon like the old ones
legendary
Activity: 1498
Merit: 1000
You are talking 100k territory. Bitcoin as it is right now is a better payment method than plastics. This is true online and it soon will be in your local corner store when they add the option to pay with it. The tech is there, all that's needed is for businesses to catch up. Which they will, so why wait when it is almost certainly going to happen?

Then there are all the other useful scenarios. I can take all my money with me wherever I go and not risk having it stolen, even if it's million or even billions. I can bring it across borders. I can transfer it to any point in the world without paying hefty fees. For those of us who like to travel, we can already buy flights with bitcoin and as adoption grows we will no longer need to bother with exchanging currencies. And there is no risk of a Cyprus for us, unlike with fiat.

Bitcoin is presently undervalued. Lines and graphs to come at a later date.

Well I doubt we disagree about it being undervalued in the long term but in the short term, it's incredibly overvalued. There isn't enough of a market for what you speak of above to warrant mass adoption. If I tell 1000 people at agriculture conference that they can transfer money around the world more cheaply 99% of them don't care. That same 99% already take lofty vacations and take money with them without fear of it being stolen.

All in all, they are more likely terrified of the idea that their money isn't insured, isn't backed and all that separates anyone else from their money is a random string. (a random string that if they lose/forget etc.. they are out the money).

Truth be told, I work in Bioinformatics using high performance computing clusters etc..  and prior to that worked as a software developer (if you check my post history I was selling a NXT password recovery tool that I created for a bit, cracked $~50,000 account at one point)   and even I'M not comfortable storing bitcoin on my own accord. I use Coinbase. I recognize that given all the ridiculous layers of abstraction by which computers work that nothing is ever secure on a personal computer. (the point being, if I'm not comfortable how many people can be?!)

In other words, those things you mentioned are never going to bring mass adoption. They sound nice as soundbytes but they are shit to just about everyone else. The lines and graphs aren't important, conceptually it's just not there yet.  *good talk though Smiley
Where are you from mate?

I am very interested in your background, before I mess with cryptos I had started an online Msc (Manchester Univ.) on Bioinformatics - biotech is my biggest love!

Probably you know Personal Genome Project (http://www.personalgenomes.org/) - I am trying to find a way to do this without having the privacy issues they have and be based in some sort of cryptographic/encryption scheme.

Maybe a blockchain could help?

Apologies for the off topic..
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1002
Bitcoin is new, makes sense to hodl.
There will be a rally soon then, as it comes from a guy who prefers shitcoins to the real coin.
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