Topic: Lets get one thing straight: there will NOT be a run-up anytime soon - page 3. (Read 4973 times)

This is all fair. The rally was lame and worries me. There are fewer shorts to squeeze.

However, while some of the longs may be out of position, most of them really shouldn't be. We squeezed everybody there was to squeeze going into the mid-400s and, since then, about $3 million in new longs have emerged which should be well positioned relative to the current value. That said, who knows how much the last dip cut into traders' willingness to lever up, again.

I am hoping that GABI might be a sufficient nudge to bring the panic buyers in... we'll see... in the long run I think Wall Street will screw us all, but short-term I see it as a positive. I see up as the more likely route, flat as the second most likely, and down 20+ as possible, but becoming less likely.

Regarding the bolded part, I think you're doing it wrong. Yes, shorts are still down ~2500 from the recent peak. That means there are much less shorts to squeeze. Meanwhile, yes, longs have increased somewhat -- and if you look at the slope, it is completely diverging from price. These longs are already out of position, so they are more likely to be squeezed than if they weren't underwater. Remember, most traders lose.

China is not "running hot". They've been staying within a few dollars of Bitfinex. The last $20 rally was extremely tired -- very little momentum. Couldn't make new highs. And the spike off 3105 this afternoon clearly failed miserably. With off-exchange supply and demand so invisible, and only being able to glean what I can of that from exchange movements,  I'm not sure what to make of GABI yet. I also don't think Ethereum was a driving factor for anything in the BTC/fiat markets.

To be fair, though, I'm looking mostly for a reversal of the daily trend. If we can't break above $530s, that seems very unlikely.

Good talking with you. The issue with software is that all it takes is one unknown that you hadn't accounted for to compromise the entire thing. As a developer we come across hundreds of these with every little bit of functionality we develop. It's almost like the design space is too large to account for in a complex system. There are too many permutations to account for.

I suppose that's the reason 'hacks' exists. They are a natural bi-product of that problem. If they weren't, there wouldn't be such a thing.

Lol, true, probably want to go a bit lower level with that. It's a very astute point. (does happen though say: SharpHSQL)

more and more people can finally see the downtrend of bitcoin, great

where are those scamming bulls?

I guarantee if you write an SQL database in C# you will have a database with really shitty performance.

I understand how it works. I have half a code monkeys education. Thing is, Satoshi probably has way more than that and so do the countless people around the world scrutinizing the code.

The bottom line is that a program can not do something it is not programmed to do. To exploit a protocol, it first has to be exploitable.

And it's time to go to aforementioned work. Check back later.

+1 totally agree. WE are in a long wait, we are waiting for the global demand to catch up with the bubble price. It still hasn't IMHO. Most investors will long tire of waiting and will stop paying attention or even sell and move on. It is exactly then that we will see another run.

It's sort of heady, but consider how a computer does math. It's a series of and/or gates. That's abstracted up to machine code, that's further abstracted to assembly, that's further abstracted to low level langauges like C, that's further abstracted to higher level languages like c# that's further abstracted up to things like SQL Databases. There are just too many layes of abstraction for anyone to guarantee anything. <- big period!

With NXT it was a double spend attack, too many details to go into here but one guy was able to spend money from account he didn't own.

Feel free to share the details of this hack which is certainly not just a product of an overactive paranoid imagination.

An asteroid could hit earth and wipe us all out today. I'm still gonna go to work.

Right but you understand that if someone exploits the protocol they don't need access to any kind of offline storage. It just means that someone compromises the entire system just as it happened with NXT, only thank god that guy was nice enough to just expose the whole thing and not run off with millions of dollars.

Earlier this week the shorts completely halved on Bitfinex... they've since regained some of their luster but are still well short of where we were when we were touching 525. During the same period of time, the longs have increased. Using this as a measure of market sentiment, people seem to be willing to pony up money towards the upside. Additionally, China has been running hot when, previously, they were the source of the dumping activity. Thirdly, the whole GABI thing is more money in the pot (and if it doesn't do something then they have nothing to show investors... thus, I believe that we have an artificially constrained market right now). Finally, the whole Ethereum dumping seems to have hit an end.

There are probably more reasons cutting in both directions, but I think we are about to get some truly unrestrained action in the next week and I think the prices now, at least in the short-term, are a steal.

Why does the price have to jump significantly in the next week? Looking at a daily chart, it seems to me that we are indeed at a crossroads. (The weekly chart is uglier for bulls) I don't see a trend reversal yet, though.

It's not the protocol that makes an offline install secure, it's the physical separation from the net. Someone would have to physically break into my home, find the machine I keep it on and walk off with it. And the password leaves me plenty of time to recover it with the seed and transfer everything to a fresh wallet. I'd still be out a laptop tho. That would be a bummer.

Also, hardware wallets will soon be here. Look at Trezor. It's secure, it's simple and most importantly it's physical so our monkey brains have an easier time accepting it as "real". Won't be long until they are cheap too.

Unless we all overthink it or just get too bored, the price has to jump significantly in the next week. The Western exchanges are being blatantly manipulated and, as a result, the Chinese exchanges are running much hotter than even BFX. Buy while you still can.

I feel like it's one hell of a jinx to say something like 'absurdly secure' when dealing with a computer protocol. Even the biggest advocates of Bitcoin, say: Andres Autonomous will say "look folks this is one giant beta experiment, the bitcoin protocol is like trying to fix an airplane while it is flying" That's no joke. It will be a small miracle if nobody every finds at least one exploit into the bitcoin protocol. Again though, it will be fixed and it will flourish but wow 100% success on the first attempt, that would be a miracle!  

I used to be a huge fan of NXT (And still am to some degree), one guy on the forum literally found a way to crack the entire thing when it had a 60 Million dollar marketcap! He proved it publicly and was paid a bounty and they swept the entire thing under the rug. There's no reason to think that can't happen with Bitcoin. That should terrify everyone, I had 10,000$ in NXT alone at the point. "absurdly secure is no longer in my vocabulary!"

An offline electrum install is absurdly secure. Far more than coinbase or any other online service. The only real "problem" is setting a good password. I'm more comfortable keeping my money there than in the bank, and I have no formal education to speak of.

Well I doubt we disagree about it being undervalued in the long term but in the short term, it's incredibly overvalued. There isn't enough of a market for what you speak of above to warrant mass adoption. If I tell 1000 people at agriculture conference that they can transfer money around the world more cheaply 99% of them don't care. That same 99% already take lofty vacations and take money with them without fear of it being stolen.

All in all, they are more likely terrified of the idea that their money isn't insured, isn't backed and all that separates anyone else from their money is a random string. (a random string that if they lose/forget etc.. they are out the money).

Truth be told, I work in Bioinformatics using high performance computing clusters etc..  and prior to that worked as a software developer (if you check my post history I was selling a NXT password recovery tool that I created for a bit, cracked $~50,000 account at one point)   and even I'M not comfortable storing bitcoin on my own accord. I use Coinbase. I recognize that given all the ridiculous layers of abstraction by which computers work that nothing is ever secure on a personal computer. (the point being, if I'm not comfortable how many people can be?!)

In other words, those things you mentioned are never going to bring mass adoption. They sound nice as soundbytes but they are shit to just about everyone else. The lines and graphs aren't important, conceptually it's just not there yet.  *good talk though

You are talking 100k territory. Bitcoin as it is right now is a better payment method than plastics. This is true online and it soon will be in your local corner store when they add the option to pay with it. The tech is there, all that's needed is for businesses to catch up. Which they will, so why wait when it is almost certainly going to happen?

Then there are all the other useful scenarios. I can take all my money with me wherever I go and not risk having it stolen, even if it's million or even billions. I can bring it across borders. I can transfer it to any point in the world without paying hefty fees. For those of us who like to travel, we can already buy flights with bitcoin and as adoption grows we will no longer need to bother with exchanging currencies. And there is no risk of a Cyprus for us, unlike with fiat.

Bitcoin is presently undervalued. Lines and graphs to come at a later date.

Hmm tricky, well I don't want to convince you not to. I'd hate for Bitcoin to get set back several years when it crashes back to something more reasonable before it grows into what it actually should be and people become 'gun shy' so to speak.

I'd say start dumping your money into Bitcoin when it actually starts to deliver on things not yet possible. It's difficult to come up with practical examples as many have yet not even been thought of (just as google and facebook in early internet days) but one that immediately comes to mind will be 'autonomous corporations' and services. We aren't going to win over the public with a substitute for something that already exists. Bitcoin will flourish when it starts doing things that 'person owned money' can not do.

You can imagine all sort of autonomous software that works completely independent of a person using the Bitcoin protocol. (I believe they are calling these agents). You can also imagine some sort of autonomous code that creates profit using human services like say 'Amazon Turk' and then reinvests that money back into itself. THEN we will start to see some really amazing business models that can only exist in a Bitcoin economy. At that point, sell you clothes for Bitcoin because it will be a complete game changer.

It's just like the early internet but before it became something useful, it floundered for how many decades before people realized its true potential. Bitcoin is surely like the early internet of the 70's. (unfortunately people are throwing money at it and not trying to figure out what the @## to do with it.)