Interesting, that's 452 orders between them right there... There might be a lot of these chips in the wild, i don't think there's anything besides the 10k chips you can buy on their website that would count as an order number either?
If every single one of those is 10k chips. That is 1274.64 Terahash/second
And
BTC352,560. I can't comment on their order numbering system as I don't know what it is. It's possible they sold 452 batches, and anyone who is interested in purchasing chips should do their homework before purchasing.
Dang thats $35,000,000+ Avalon is racking up some serious cash for being the first company to complete making their Asics. I wonder if some of those orders are from people/companies planning on making a bitcoin mining warehouse to control percents of the network. Whatever it is, difficulty will skyrocket.
They have not sold that many batches of chips.
https://blockchain.info/address/1FGAftzSTztFSB8LMwsrdCKTyqGY6zr3sU is the address they are using to collect purchase money. Currently at 53,117. Quick math puts it at somewhere around 191TH/s worth of chips. Big increase, but nowhere near ROI breaking (for ASICS).
There is one order unaccounted for. All others received, recorded, and replied. Batch three will begin once batch two ends.
FWIW over the next ~3 months my numbers have, from the current hash rate
+191TH/sec - Avalon chips
+262TH/sec - ASICMiner (their posted 3 month projection)
+Between 0 - 281.25TH/sec - BFL (assuming 75 wafers and 1,100 chips per wafer @ 3.75Ghash/sec per chip)
Minimum new hashrate : 606 TH/sec
Conservative upper bound new hashrate : ~900 TH/sec
BFL has more wafers than orders and decides to flood the market : 1200+ TH/sec
Avalon's batch sales will be coming online 1-3 weeks after delivery, at the end of the 3 month timeframe. ASICMiner says they have hash power sitting idle waiting for competition, we shall see. Given BFL's currently difficulties and track record, 281TH/s is highly unlikely.
Minimum new hashrate (at time of expected finish date of these chips) : 460 TH/sec
Conservative upper bound new hashrate : ~660 TH/sec
BFL has more wafers than orders and decides to flood the market : 200+ TH/sec. They MAY be able to dump chips if they offer them for nothing, and immediate availability. They would have to release their reference design as well, which is highly unlikely. Given their track record, chip performance, and delays, I wouldn't expect more than 100TH/s from them in the next 3 months.
This doesn't mean don't plan for it.
whats the expected difficulty at 600, 900, 1200 TH/s ?
600TH/s- 83,819,031.72
900TH/s- 125,728,547.57
1,200TH/s- 167,638,063.43
Should still be profitable at that point though.
Hardly the easy money or get rich quick that people think it will be though.
There is even the possibility that you won't even break even within 1-2 years - all depends on shadow players
EVERYONE should be doing their own cost analysis to gauge the risks involved. I will tell you what my difficulty turn-off number is though: 2,463,622,386.37
In other news, Batch 2 officially closed. Batch 3 has now begun. For those who ordered after batch 2 closed, with previous orders in batch 2, I have funded the purchase through my private chips. All others have been placed in batch 3.
