Topic: Lockdown restrictions increased to reduce the spread of immunity. - page 3. (Read 647 times)

I'm not saying that 68% or 56% is representative of the entire U.S. There is a reason why NY is not getting ravaged by coronavirus during the second wave, and that's because nearly everyone has already been exposed to coronavirus enough to the point that herd immunity can take effect. They had 30k deaths for a 9 million population, which out matches most countries in death per capita.

Blah blah blah. I'm still waiting for your R models that back up the countless scientific and statistical claims you have made.

No, you can't get out of it by attempting to create a diversion into ORANGEMANBAD.

^^^ But you are kinda in limbo regarding respect. People might not have respect for you, but they don't have disrespect for some joker who keeps on trying without ever figuring out what he is attempting. People like perseverance. So, keep at it.

i had respect for you a few months back because you had rational thoughts.

but then you went down the idiot path that made you sound like people like badecker
so yea i called you out on it.
and now your just getting emotional trying to stand by your stupid thoughts. i think the main trigger was when i called you out as a trump lover, your reply content of emotion changed dramatically after that.
and since then rational thought has just gone out the window and all you wanna do is plant silly questions knowing you wont get the answer your looking for to then use as a way to get more emotional when i point out that your questions wont get the answer your looking for

so line in the sand about your recent outbursts asisde
..
if the virus was a car. thats easy to see and easy to control at the borders of a state, fine
but with idiots crying out for their "freedom to travel" loopholes to spread beyond the border. means a state cant control it aswell.
and as i said already if its done at state level then bickering neighbour states will not cooperate but just let disaster strike and just try blaming each other.
just like trump blames china even though china stopped its own flights. but trump went in with repatriation flights to bring it to the US and then stupidly went and blamed china for how it got into the us

see my point. if you put your rational hat on

Sure, but also each state may have a complement of brilliant analysts, and to various degrees use their ideas.

The general and rational response to someone who says something like this around here "so my general advice is.
dont be an idiot thinking your being helpful by licking random people and spitting on people or pushing people together
be respectful of peoples personal space.
if you cant avoid close contact. reduce the time your in close contact and wear a face covering or preferably a mask to further decrease the load
and stop looking for loop holes so you can go about and spread it like an idiot"

would be to tell the person to "FUCK OFF" and I suspect that's exactly what you'd get if you talked like that in the pub down the street. But hey this is the Internet so everyone can be rude, right?

Your idiots are simply anybody who doesn't understand what you are talking about most of the time. But to do so, they would actually have to get into your mind to learn the way you think. And that's a really scary thought.

well when idiots cant grasp a complex situation and instead want to blame aliens, government conspiracies,, or some corporate puppet games

and then other people ask for a simple answer and limit the answer to being only 2 options that are not practical either way..

then expect not to get the short answer you are looking for

you seemed to have precisely and maybe arrogantly decided on 2 tight options. knowing probably well that both dont play out well.
but instead of thinking beyond your precisely chosen options of YOUR decision. you simply want to complain that i gave you another answer

sorry the world is too random to have a single option plan because yea there are some idiots. there are others who are just ignorant and try to find loopholes. and others that have common sense.
you cant use a common sense approach to the other two categories. and the idiot proof version doesnt play well for the loop hole/ common sense people

so sorry i couldnt give you a loving hug and say how one of your options is the answer.
maybe try to run some scenarios next time and figure out a better option

in short
just mass rule even when only certain states have mega hotspots. is not good for the states without hotspots
however. making it state level. where one state then cant advice the neighbour state. can cause chaos for the neighbour state if they play ignorant. and then play the blame game on the first state.
EG trump style play ignorant. let people cross border. then blame the first impact zone. then try to sue the first impact zone for not helping the ignorant second zone

see what i mean
there is no one fix solution. because each state have a different level of ignorance and incompetence. just like the different levels of both found in different countries leaders

Thanks, but I don't need your general advice or your condescending attitude, or two pages of rambling garbage in response to a simple question.

in the UK they are localising lockdowns per town having a hotspot.
the problem is where even if that one town is having a localised hotspot. and localised lockdown. people .. well idiots. think its their calling to then drive out of the area and spread it around.
this can then be a cascading reaction causing more hotspots.

take sweden. it didnt do much repatriation. it implemented social distancing/respect. it kept the spread low.
but denmark done more repatriation. didnt socially distance. went into lockdown. and then the danes decided they will ignore danish advice and hop over to sweden so they can party.
thus then causing sweden cases to rise


the issue with trying to be such locally reactive is. that by the time people react and actually take the advice its been a week or 2..
EG even the main lockdown in march didnt see a curve the peak until 2-3 weeks later
so trying to be prompt and reactive doesnt work because of the delay.

so some places have to be proactive-predictive-preventative
such as if a town is having a hotspot. the whole county/state should respond equally.
or if the scale of the hotspot is of such magnitude that it would affect multiple counties/states in under 2 weeks then yes the scope has to be widened

EG
if a ski resort with 2000 guests from 50 states are on vacation(40 people per state). and they all come into contact. and the next week they all go to their differing states. then thats more of a thing to keep an eye on country wide.
where as 40 people from a small bar in a small town where they all live by each other should be considered as  small town concern. even if they then go and infect 2000 neighbours that never leave town anyway.

..
id say we are way passed trying to lockdown to zero out cases. because it will just get imported again by vacationers. so the only option is to reduce the risk of people getting it with severe viral loads
so when your at home with family you know and trust or in your own car with people you know. and you know where they have been. you can take the risk
but if your going places where your meeting strangers you dont know where they been or who they touched your increasing the risk so yea mask up in those situations of random people near you

alot of people think their local supermarket is full of local people simply because its the market near their home..  .. they dont realise people can come from out of state of go to that super market after being abroad the previous week. hoping to stock up with a couple weeks of food because they are starting to get sick and know they will have to isolate.

so while these sick people are randomly rushing to get supplies to stay home. they are already passing it around
so while you are in a store thinking smart people would just stay home or the people in the supermarket should be all clear because they are only local and they have been in same lockdown as you.. dont be so sure of yourself

but overall yea in supermarkets its not always possible to respect personal space. so best to mask up.. but if you can respect personal space and not go near random people. do so

in true common sense people could react case by case take each situation as its presented.. but too many idiots wouldnt even follow common sense and instead be looking for the loopholes/excuses to avoid common sense.
EG trying to go back to work while being sick by pretending covid is fake and jsut the flu
EG even if not disabled wearing a 'im disabled due to autism thus exempt from wearing masks'

 then there are idiots that just dont have a clue either way so need guidance.
EG the ones where you see them driving in their own car with no passengers but they are wearing a mask. because they re taking the advice too literally without common sense

then we circle back to sometimes that guideance takes time to actualy be soaked into peoples minds and accepted and implemented. so sometimes the advice has to be more predictive of worse case scenario of 2-4 weeks before the actual concern. just to prevent the concern

so my general advice is.
dont be an idiot thinking your being helpful by licking random people and spitting on people or pushing people together
be respectful of peoples personal space.
if you cant avoid close contact. reduce the time your in close contact and wear a face covering or preferably a mask to further decrease the load
and stop looking for loop holes so you can go about and spread it like an idiot

Would you prefer one set of rules on lockdown, masks and distancing for an entire country, or as in the US, for it to be let to each state?

what you actually find is that in 'white privilege' areas the number was 13%. they said overall the populous was ~26% in the epicenter area. (NYCity.. not NY state,.. NOT USA overall)
again in the city of the high epicentre of the epidemic..
other states had far far far lower numbers than 26%

so dont even try to make a small case study of 68% and 56% in certain area's to assume that its near that number overall everywhere


also the POC protesting george floyd did actually socially distance and stay home if sick during protests.
however if you look at the area's in like ohio. which were stupid. the case number went up

heck NY even done some 'bicycle' protests which is even safer.. yet other states done vandalism moshpit style protests

the places that did not do peaceful protests. and did not do it responsibly, going out even when they sick. got affected more
the only times NY done aggressive cluster protests they did not keep going out every day for a month.
yet other states were out most days for a month and using the protests for socialising upclose while trying to argue about their civil liberties are being quashed

kinda funny how your not showing places like ohio case increase knowing all the news of ohio stupid protest methods

But at first, people are really scared and anxious about the virus.

People are getting confident that this Covid-19 virus is not that deadly. That's the reason why some people are really thinking that this virus is nothing compared to other deadly viruses. Governments are really having a hard time to make decisions that will really beneficial for the sake of all.


Covid-19 virus only worsen the sickness or diseases that you have, it can make you have complications in any part of your organs that's why it is deadly.

But this virus is just like influenza, you can recover from it if you are healthy and you don't have any diseases before. Once you don't have any problem with your body and your immune system is working properly, then there's no need to worry, but you should also consider that medications are not that cheap once you are infected with the virus.

It isn't the antibodies that give you long term immunity, but the memory T-cells. They have found that people who were infected with SARS back in 2002/3 have retained these cells, and they kick into action and create antibodies when they detect the Corona virus. This could explain why over half of the people exposed to the virus don't seem to be affected. They fall into the age range that could have developed this long term immunity. If this is the case, then we are probably already at 80% immunity, and the whole lockdown business is just an excuse to reset the debt laden economy.  It also creates a new product line for the money Pharmers to harvest.

and the real world interesting and factual thing is there ARE more deaths than average years

CDC estimated 40 percent to 70 percent required to reach herd immunity. If you recall the protests on George Floyd/BLM, some areas didn't see increases in COVID-19. In NYC, an antibody study revealed that some communities, primarily communities with POC, had some instances where 68 percent of people tested who were from these communities had antibodies. This helped to paint a picture on why close proximity protests didn't create massive spikes in cases in NY. Herd immunity was the reason. Another hispanic community had a 35 percent positivity rate for antibodies in Brooklyn.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-antibodies.html

We're closer to herd immunity in some places than people think.


I've seen a few studies that throw out the number that antibodies last a few months, but nothing conclusive. We've only been tracking COVID-19 with data since February, so we're only going to know about antibody lifespan with time as researchers continually conduct antibody tests. That being said, it's VERY rare if not non-existent for someone to be reinfected.

^^^ And the interesting thing is, there still aren't any more deaths, overall, than any other average year.

I wonder how that works? Same total deaths as any other year, but suddenly way more Coronavirus deaths? Something fishy going on.

as for the rise in cases
guess what folks
idiots went to work and school and didnt follow the personal space respect advice. then they went to protests where it spread to a extremely high r0 number because instead of just meeting a couple people in close proximity a week. they would be shoulder to shoulder with dozens of people in coughing range
thus 9 can turn to 89 in a week. turning to 800 within a fortnight,

yep being moshpit close to 9 people for a few hours. is a sure fire way that those 9 will get a megadose of your cough. high enough viral load to make them sick too

1.
government have said. if your sick or if came into contact with someone sick stay home. and said stay home for 10 days minimum..
why.
because you can be sick for a few weeks. so the minimum is the important part. it does not mean maximum
many idiots get sick. and were going back to work after the 7th day because that was the old limit. and even if they were still coughing and have a fever they would say they are ok to work because the deadline has passed

its not about the numerical number a government decides. its about dont go out until you are well. and i mean actually well.. not hiding the symptoms with symptom hiding meds.

2.
the natural virus has a faster incubation and also can cause more damage.
yes people get sick.
if there was no sickness then jetcash would not care about obtaining immunity. because if no one got sick no one would care.
but jetcash does know that people get sick.. he tries to not admit it on this form. but deep down he knows.
he also knows some basic maths.. but again denies knowing maths on the forum but deep down he knows if too many people get sick at any one time it would over run the healthcare.

i still laugh even now how he wants people to cluster together and lick each others face to get sick.. but then pretends they dont get sick. but then says its important they get sick so that they are immune

..
here is the thing though.. risking getting immune via the natural virus comes with the risk of the sickness that comes with the natural virus

yes 50% of those that get infected can brush it off.. another 30% can just have a week or 2 off work and stay home and they get better. but 10-20% may need hospital care.

we have not got enough health care capacity for 10% in a fortnight
we dont even have healthcare for 1% in a fortnight
at best. if all healthcare was shifted to just treating covid people there would be 0.25% capacity for 2 weeks
meaning.. even if everybed was for covid
the best hope would be 40 fortnights (80 weeks)(subtract the current LOW rates already passed.. still leaves 70+weeks  BEST HOPE with EVERY NHS resource diverted to covid)

but because only a certain amount of beds are capable of handling it. then it would be longer

3.
the thing you should not be blaming is some conspiracy that the virus is fake.
but that the government did not invest in more beds in hospitals
in the 1980's UK NHS had 300k bed capacity. more recently its more like 150k.
half as many beds. thus doubling the problems before they even start.
if NHS had say 650k beds and dedicated them all to covid. then there would be a 1% a fortnight. meaning best case scenario 10 fortnights (20 weeks) and hospitals can cope with the 10% sickness and needing care rate

so instead of playing the ignorant teenager that doesnt know real politics/economics/maths
how about understand that if you actually wanted to be antigov/pro-economy. you would be asking the government to stop wasting money on silly london city landscaping and billionaire bailouts. and instead invest in healthcare which would have meant no lockdowns were needed

Actually, this lockdown has given a lot of hardships to those that are already below the poverty level. As they have very limited means of earning money for their food, and a lot of them are suffering from other diseases not this covid. And the government can't satisfy all their needs. We expect more deaths not owed to covid but malnutrition?? 

I don't believe I'm seeing very effective use of masks on the streets, so let's see where that leads.

Assuming 10% already have immunity, then to get 60% more over 12 weeks say with 1 week sickness each person...

For a million people that's 600,000/12 = 50k. If 1/3 require hospitalization, then that's 17k in the hospital per 1M people. Obviously, that's not happening.

But I'm not seeing effective mask use, so what gives?

Obviously one of the numerical parameters is wrong or the calculation is wrong.