Topic: Logic of some gamblers against math - page 5. (Read 518 times)

Scientists have been struggling with probability for a long time now. Although if something like luck existed, we would have quantized, measured and experimentally reproduced it by now. But I think its just a superstition concept.

What is important is the probability. And that never seems to change.

If your probability of winning is 1/10 then that does not mean you will definitely win once or lose 9 times. You could win 10 times and lose 0 times. Or even lose all 10 times and not even win once.

You just have to take a chance and see where it leads you.

This mostly affects gamblers who have no plan. Gambling is a game of luck so you don't expect to keep winning consistently. Winning big only comes once in a while, hence it is important to maximize it when it comes. Immediately I will big, the next step will be to withdraw some percentage and the remaining funds will be kept in my account to fund my games. Gamblers should grasp that we lose more than we win, so it is important not to gamble off our wind because we expect to win more. Wins should be used to solve our needs and not to be pulled back into gambling. Some gamblers have invested some of their wins and it is bringing returns. Gambling is not an investment and it shouldn't be seen as su h.


Your illustration about people driving around town because of the fun they derived from it is a typical example of people gambling for fun. When one gambles for fun there will be no need to chase losses or see gambling as a major source of income. People also visit cinemas to watch movies just because of fun and they are comfortable spending money on it.

If you hang around gamblers in casinos for long enough, you quickly pick up on those who are chasing luck or think they are due for a win, which goes against the simple reality of the odds. It's also big business and a lot of research has gone into the psychology and tricks that get people to spend more. There is no logic to it, the simple reality is many people are bad at math or are so desperate to win, that they throw any analysis out the window. There is no reasoning with someone who has not used reason to take their position.

Doesn't that defeat the purpose of winning in the first place? If you'll keep on upping your bet while you're in the zone, you're not gaining anything at the end of the day or until you get to that cold section. Perhaps people who won huge amounts should keep a portion of their wins immediately and play with whatever's left of those winnings to their heart's content. I understand that you should strike while the iron is hot, but I think it isn't fully applicable to a game wherein chances are most probably not in your favor most of the time.

I haven't done this though. I am too scared that I may lose my winnings and fall into mild depression out of regrets. When I write the new things in risky things in gambling that I want to attempt for 2024, I am going to put this in there. For now, I will have to read more on this "heater" thingy.

From the way you explained it, this is not feat for a newbie. It is left for those who wants their adrenaline to run faster. Do you have any other tips for me to keep in mind before I go ahead and try this for myself?

The best after winning is to just quit and not gamble again for that day.  Some gamblers will want to have fun, they can reduce the money that they are using to gamble. Example is if a gambler has won $10 for the day, the gambler can just use $5 to gamble for the remain gambling time of the day. With $0.5 in each game, it would make the gambling time longer. If all the $5 are lost, he should not gamble with the remaining profit but stop gambling for the day.

If you have been betting and experiencing how it is, you will understand that the more you gamble the more your gambling fund will reduce in a way that you may likely add more bankroll. That is what OP is talking about and he is definitely right.

But that's not how it works. Every spin is a new game, and you're just as likely to win or lose as you were on the last spin.  There is no math that says you have less chance after winning a huge multiplier if the outcome of the game is truly random.

Not some but I think it's more like "most" gamblers prefer to act out of control, or that means doing things that they can't really afford to lose, it's like wanting to win but not willing to lose, isn't it ridiculous? obviously. Greed will have a major role when luck accompanies you in the session you are doing, one of the reasons is that they try to take advantage of the situation and conditions to get a much bigger win, on the other hand are you sure that luck is still with you at that time? unknown, anyone will never know when luck comes and when it leaves, which is why it is very difficult to get a win and from dozens of attempts there will only be a few or even one win.

That is indeed quite tempting, but on the other hand allowing yourself to continue to be carried away by the situation is really not recommended and must be avoided, the satisfaction of lust will have no limit, meaning that even if you can get a large number of wins it will not be able to make you realize to leave and there is only that you will again increase the multiplier for even bigger wins. Simply put, "winning is addictive and losing is curious" is what gambling is all about and the point is that there should at least be time for you to go home and enjoy it.

The mathematics in games of Chance , casinos and all this , I believe that there is a Relationship , because every game , every casino is made under the schemes of the most advanced mathematics with other things that include them, such as game theory and random systems that at the same time In the end it has to favor the casinos, that's what that's about , but a company with its full capacity is difficult to generate something strong so that it can beat its casinos or a casino system, because its algorithms, therefore when we see that there are more things to develop we Should not let ourselves be surprised, because yes, it can be done.

I was reading an AI thread where a player said that there was a program that was very close to doing many favorable things , to win and to make any Prediction , which seems even dangerous to me, because then it would have its own life, it wouldn't even be a machine, or being human, another strange creation , which must be controlled and not allowed to Advance so much.

I don't know what law of mathematics are you talking about, but a gambler who can't stop after winning a huge multiplier is just simply thinking about seizing the moment while he's feeling lucky or trying to make a winning momentum. But whatever mathematical law you're talking about, the algorithm doesn't allow any gambler to win successively with huge multiplier in the same game for slot game. So, others will move on to another game. Gambling is all about risk after all, so it's all depend on the gambler's risk appetite. 

It seems to me that most gamblers can't finish a game after a big win because of greed and the feeling that they have curbed their luck. Any responsible gambler leaves the gambling game after winning and returns to the game only when the emotional background is restored.
 
In fact, none of us can not say for sure what the probability of two consecutive wins.

He's right, as luck will never be a part of mathematical certainty. If he's lucky, he'll get more; what he relies on is luck, not mathematics. For me, this is quite terrifying because the probabilities I consider are based on calculations, not just feelings. Someone who relies too much on luck is likely to get something big (if lucky). Unfortunately, I can't force my luck too much, so maybe our gambling approaches are a bit different.

For me, mathematics is somewhat necessary to understand the probability of winning we might have, while luck plays a significant role. I still strongly believe that gambling requires a significant amount of luck to win big, and I also believe that mathematics plays only a minor role.

people are greedy, when they are playing they keep setting a profit target, even though they are losing they continue to plan how much money they want to win when they hit a big multiplier, even if they know that the mathematics may not be in their favor, They are counting on luck and everything gets worse because people keep seeing stories of people who say that they played with little money and managed to hit a big multiplier and then went back to playing more and hit another big multiplier and how these people, when they talk about it, post photos, then become inspiration for other people. people are greedy and always have a tendency to copy what other people do

especially when it comes to money, if today you came to this forum and said that you deposited $100 in a casino and spent 3 hours playing a certain game 2000$ and thanks to that you ended up with 2900$ and removed it without any problems, and posted photos. assures you that many people who are intelligent, who don't take much risks in games, would lose their minds and put in 100$ and play the same game that you said you played and won 2900$, people wouldn't think about things like what are the chances of them also getting the same result you got. they would just act on emotions

Accordingly to mathematics, luck isn't enough for a gambler to keep winning on long term, because the casino has a mathematical advantage called house edge, which varies from casino to casino, but tends to stay around 1%-2%. It looks innofensive, but it makes total difference the more you play and the longer loss streaks you suffer, especially after hundreds or few thousands of placed bets.

However, not every gamblers care about mathematics or understand it, so they just ignore it and go ahead betting as they wish, without worrying about the consequences of their acts, as you mentioned in your post.

I think the title of this thread funny, because in fact, there isn't logic against mathematics. Logic is a very elementary concept inside this subject. What gamblers can try doing is to use their luck against math, as it's the case of jackpot and lottery winners who to win big once it's already enough for the rest of life, so they don't need to enter the so feared long term gambling.

For some people, like new to gambling the heater is a streak, so basically betting on a heater means you're putting a bet to continue a streak. It's like the NBA teams, why would you bet on 3-16 Spurs over 16-3 Philadelphia? Technically the math that you should think of this is the chances of how many win did it have, or basically the probability of repeating the same pattern.

But sometimes countering a heater may be a good idea since there will be a point when there a shift, or a pause on that streak but then again putting a bet on a heater after that pause or shift is the most preferable to do by most of gamblers, not until there is a turn over.

When I view gambling with the laws of mathematics, then I will never play gambling. Because math is about certainty, while gambling is about possibility. Which of course this is very contradictory. When math speaks that one plus one is two, then gambling will speak differently that one plus one is ten and it could also be that one plus one is zero.

If we think rationally, of course gambling is very detrimental, but we also get other things, namely sensation and pleasure when doing these activities. So just assume that the loss you experience is a fair price for the thrill and pleasure you get.
And speaking of the possibility in gambling it returns to ourselves personally, whether in doing this gambling is only for pleasure by continuing to squander money. Or change this activity that still gives pleasure, but is less detrimental and gives us a little benefit. All of this goes back to our beliefs and understanding of gambling, as well as our abilities at the time of gambling. With good self-control and finance, we will always be able to turn this gambling activity into an activity that does not cause a big loss. And with good knowledge and abilities coupled with your skills when gambling, you will always increase the chances of getting a win every time you play gambling.

On slots, live casino games and other original games, the previous results will not influence a future outcome.
If you said "the chance of such luck becomes much less" after win a max multi, the answer is No.
He/she may hit a max multi again, and the chance still the same as before.

Maybe you think a gambler will be lost if he keeps playing on the same slot after win a decent amount because of the house edge/rtp.
And how about if a gambler keep losing on the same slot, does he have a better chance on the next spins? the answer is No either.
Because the RTP is for the long term results and the rate determined over millions of spins.

Another example, you play Baccarat 10 times and from the 10 series = all wins by "Player" . The chance will be the same in the next round, 50-50.
Gamble fallacy will believe for the 11 rounds "Banker" will have a better chance.

There is a general upbringing in the world, amongst children. Which is to try again. We keep on trying, and even after getting what we want, the impulses seek more of it. The gambling world is dealing with humans not robots. And we are obliged to behave accordingly. A problem if happening to one person could be seen as personal, but when it occurs with too many people, then the fault shouldn't be on anyone. But, it'll be seen as a general psychological problem. Go on Quora, you'll read hundreds of posts about people who wagered all the money they've won, ranging from 1k dollars, at once and lost it all. When credited with extra money maybe from family, they'll wager all the money, still. Believing that luck is on their side for winning thousands of dollars. The whole money goes back to the casino. Even if the gambler withdraws the money, he'd feel the urge to play more the next day. Within him, all his efforts are paying off. He wouldn't mind the subsequent losses, and keep on wagering until the whole funds gets exhausted.

Gambling addiction causes this type of problem to players, and they try to stop when broke. Immediately money is handed to the person, he'll rush back to gamble. This is related to the thread that says; reckless gambling begins from a win. However, not all gamblers get involved in this ill behavior. But, a colossal amount of gamblers have been through similar situations. While we blame the gamblers, let's take it outside the gambling niche. If a salesman gets more calls and closes deals often, he keeps on going to work. And also work diligently as a salesman. Humans tend to repeat, whatever works out in their life. Regardless of the challenges that follow after it worked. They'll keep reminding themselves of the positive days, as a weapon to get passed the negative moments. In a niche other than gambling, it's quite okay to keep on trying after a one-time win. But, gambling isn't a profession, and following a similar route would be detrimental to the life of the gambler. Yet it seems inevitable. The brain doesn't recognize whether it's gambling or not. It only releases those impulses, involuntarily.

You're doing gambling

Then, do the gambling but at least with some brain on it. Raising the bet after winning by just at least 10-20% is small, If you have some balls you raise the bets by 50%. If you win the next bet over and over gain you gain good money. But, If you lose then you only 10% from the last bet. If you gambling, then just get ready to lost and raise the bet at least on the heater. It's better than losing, you don't know these when you're not trying.

I already using all the strategies, even all-in betting with free money. Came out from just 10-15$ to 985$ in Stake.Com by Weekly Amount. While playing with my deposit bonus, I always raise the bet after my win and flat-bet on losing.

That's the logic and strategy gambling, the rest ? only the future know.

The reason for the belief that their luck isn't running out is because the brain is overjoyed and the fleshy circuits right now is going haywire on happiness and so the person can't think straight on what to do next, even if they are the most logical ones out there, when they win, they're definitely going to go over their plan and keep on playing, your brain craves dopamine and so you want to chase that hit from that win and so you end up playing hoping to get that win again. That's how gambling addicts started, they win big and then the next day they're chasing that high they get from winning.

That's how it's supposed to be played but the problem with that is that it's just a phenomenon that many lead to believe to be true and so we end up having to think that this is true, that there's such a thing as cold section. For me, this heater that you're calling is just the same as a gambler's fallacy but the only difference is that it's a matter of winning until you hit a lose unlike the fallacy. Non-statistic strategies are not the best kind of strategy to me because when this kind of stuff is put into practice, it's overwhelming underperforming and it's not consistent compare that to those that have a math in their approach, it's totally different and you're wins and profit will go up when you subscribe to that, even if you set up a win so you'll know when to stop it's not that effective.