Long term OIL - page 10. | Bitcointalksearch.org

Indrawan77

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Quote from: STT on March 14, 2017, 05:40:58 PM

Quote

(there were rumors that Saudi Arabian oil reserves are close to being depleted, but these may just be only rumors)

In general the opposite is true of the area. Iran and Iraq have not received much recent development in their oil assets and have been cut off from modern development for decades almost. Its probable that Iraq exceeds Saudi in their reserves but does not have the infrastructure to access or transport in the way that their neighbours can do so cheaply.
Obviously we have a war ongoing in Iraq still, the stability to gain the oil is not there but they arent in theory running out of it in potential.

There are no theory of running out of oil but eventually it will finished that is why in the future oil will become more and more expensive but for now the stock is still enough and the world already create subtitution to decrease the oil usage

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Quote

(there were rumors that Saudi Arabian oil reserves are close to being depleted, but these may just be only rumors)

In general the opposite is true of the area. Iran and Iraq have not received much recent development in their oil assets and have been cut off from modern development for decades almost. Its probable that Iraq exceeds Saudi in their reserves but does not have the infrastructure to access or transport in the way that their neighbours can do so cheaply.
Obviously we have a war ongoing in Iraq still, the stability to gain the oil is not there but they arent in theory running out of it in potential.

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Quote from: deisik on March 14, 2017, 08:03:09 AM

Quote from: Sithara007 on March 14, 2017, 07:17:50 AM

Quote from: deisik on March 13, 2017, 05:04:45 AM

Quote from: Sithara007 on March 13, 2017, 04:55:02 AM

Quote from: Xester on March 09, 2017, 09:17:27 AM

Saudi are now making the barren desert into a rich fertile land with the use of irrigation and they wanted to be food independent rather than relying on imports alone. Aside from that they are also developing other business to make Saudi a more competitive country.

Is this some sort of a joke? The Saudis exhausted their water reserves in the late 1980s, after using all of it to farm wheat. Right now, they have hardly any water for irrigation. And water from desalination is extremely expensive (in Israel, the rate is around $0.50 per cubic meter, but in Saudi it costs two times that). For irrigation, you need water at less than $0.05 per cubic meter

I don't really know the economics behind such form of agriculture

So take my words with a grain of salt (pun intended). Basically, they have plenty of sun and that means they could produce cheap solar electricity and thus lower the costs of water desalination significantly (or build a few nuclear power plants with this purpose in mind). On the other hand, the whole idea of sustaining some form of agriculture in what otherwise is essentially a desert doesn't look very appealing overall. They could just pour their dollars (while they still have them) into something else

As far as I know, only around 35% to 40% of the costs associated with desalination comes from the usage of electricity. The remainder is taken up by the cost of the membranes and manpower. And solar panels are very expensive (and require constant maintenance) right now, which dilutes their advantage of having a vast open desert.

So we are basically back to square one as I assumed

And with cheap oil no longer available (there were rumors that Saudi Arabian oil reserves are close to being depleted, but these may just be only rumors) and with their wealth funds running dry (and some part of them likely confiscated by the US courts), Saudi Arabia will get back where they had been before oil extraction started, i.e. returning to nomadic life in the desert breeding camels. But since their population has increased during the generous years of oil abundance and hefty prices, the typical outcome would likely be a devastating civil war inside this hornet nest of terrorism

in fact the oil price is increasing from time to time. and the reason is the scarcity of oli. the natural resources of oil are now decreasing from time to time and that is the reason the price of natural resource is increasing.

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Quote from: Sithara007 on March 14, 2017, 07:17:50 AM

Quote from: deisik on March 13, 2017, 05:04:45 AM

Quote from: Sithara007 on March 13, 2017, 04:55:02 AM

Quote from: Xester on March 09, 2017, 09:17:27 AM

Saudi are now making the barren desert into a rich fertile land with the use of irrigation and they wanted to be food independent rather than relying on imports alone. Aside from that they are also developing other business to make Saudi a more competitive country.

Is this some sort of a joke? The Saudis exhausted their water reserves in the late 1980s, after using all of it to farm wheat. Right now, they have hardly any water for irrigation. And water from desalination is extremely expensive (in Israel, the rate is around $0.50 per cubic meter, but in Saudi it costs two times that). For irrigation, you need water at less than $0.05 per cubic meter

I don't really know the economics behind such form of agriculture

So take my words with a grain of salt (pun intended). Basically, they have plenty of sun and that means they could produce cheap solar electricity and thus lower the costs of water desalination significantly (or build a few nuclear power plants with this purpose in mind). On the other hand, the whole idea of sustaining some form of agriculture in what otherwise is essentially a desert doesn't look very appealing overall. They could just pour their dollars (while they still have them) into something else

As far as I know, only around 35% to 40% of the costs associated with desalination comes from the usage of electricity. The remainder is taken up by the cost of the membranes and manpower. And solar panels are very expensive (and require constant maintenance) right now, which dilutes their advantage of having a vast open desert.

So we are basically back to square one as I assumed

And with cheap oil no longer available (there were rumors that Saudi Arabian oil reserves are close to being depleted, but these may just be only rumors) and with their wealth funds running dry (and some part of them likely confiscated by the US courts), Saudi Arabia will get back where they had been before oil extraction started, i.e. returning to nomadic life in the desert breeding camels. But since their population has increased during the generous years of oil abundance and hefty prices, the typical outcome would likely be a devastating civil war inside this hornet nest of terrorism

Sithara007

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Quote from: deisik on March 13, 2017, 05:04:45 AM

Quote from: Sithara007 on March 13, 2017, 04:55:02 AM

Quote from: Xester on March 09, 2017, 09:17:27 AM

Saudi are now making the barren desert into a rich fertile land with the use of irrigation and they wanted to be food independent rather than relying on imports alone. Aside from that they are also developing other business to make Saudi a more competitive country.

Is this some sort of a joke? The Saudis exhausted their water reserves in the late 1980s, after using all of it to farm wheat. Right now, they have hardly any water for irrigation. And water from desalination is extremely expensive (in Israel, the rate is around $0.50 per cubic meter, but in Saudi it costs two times that). For irrigation, you need water at less than $0.05 per cubic meter

I don't really know the economics behind such form of agriculture

So take my words with a grain of salt (pun intended). Basically, they have plenty of sun and that means they could produce cheap solar electricity and thus lower the costs of water desalination significantly (or build a few nuclear power plants with this purpose in mind). On the other hand, the whole idea of sustaining some form of agriculture in what otherwise is essentially a desert doesn't look very appealing overall. They could just pour their dollars (while they still have them) into something else

As far as I know, only around 35% to 40% of the costs associated with desalination comes from the usage of electricity. The remainder is taken up by the cost of the membranes and manpower. And solar panels are very expensive (and require constant maintenance) right now, which dilutes their advantage of having a vast open desert.

hurain

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Quote from: n0ne on March 09, 2017, 04:20:09 AM

Quote from: Sithara007 on March 09, 2017, 04:14:06 AM

Quote from: jaysabi on March 06, 2017, 02:53:08 PM

Granted, the Saudi reliance on oil is significant compared to other nations. But Saudi Arabia is already on a quest to diversify the economy. The sovereign wealth fund is aimed at transporting the economy to be less oil-dependent, and the sale of part of Saudi Aramco in an IPO has been publicly acknowledged to be for the purpose of shoring up the sovereign wealth fund for this exact purpose. Other oil-rich nations have so far had more success diversifying away from oil, especially UAE, which has been working to establish a robust tourism industry with its oil wealth before the oil runs dry.

Saudi Arabia may not be able to reduce its dependency on oil, unlike Iran. Just compare the two countries. Unlike Iran, Saudi Arabia has no major non-petroleum natural resources. Saudi Arabia imports almost all of its food. Also, the education level of the population is quite low, unlike that in Iran.

Not only Saudi Arabia most of the east Asian countries have the same wealth. When oil prices got down the entire economy went down, now it looks to stabilize a bit creating a market by decreasing the supply and making a increase in the price. If the same continues at one point other countries try to make control of it.

but it is also a fact that the resources of natural resources are increasing from time to time, and a time will come when we will be facing energy crises therefor it is important to find out the alternate way of natural resources for getting energy.

ArdiPrabowo

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after up trend from november 2016 until early march 2017
this now oil price is down trend, iam read in forex market oil price, crude oil light sweet 48 dollar/barrel
if OPEC not reduce production i think can down again

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Quote from: Sithara007 on March 13, 2017, 04:55:02 AM

Quote from: Xester on March 09, 2017, 09:17:27 AM

Saudi are now making the barren desert into a rich fertile land with the use of irrigation and they wanted to be food independent rather than relying on imports alone. Aside from that they are also developing other business to make Saudi a more competitive country.

Is this some sort of a joke? The Saudis exhausted their water reserves in the late 1980s, after using all of it to farm wheat. Right now, they have hardly any water for irrigation. And water from desalination is extremely expensive (in Israel, the rate is around $0.50 per cubic meter, but in Saudi it costs two times that). For irrigation, you need water at less than $0.05 per cubic meter

I don't really know the economics behind such form of agriculture

So take my words with a grain of salt (pun intended). Basically, they have plenty of sun and that means they could produce cheap solar electricity and thus lower the costs of water desalination significantly (or build a few nuclear power plants with this purpose in mind). On the other hand, the whole idea of sustaining some form of agriculture in what otherwise is essentially a desert doesn't look very appealing overall. They could just pour their dollars (while they still have them) into something else

Sithara007

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Quote from: Xester on March 09, 2017, 09:17:27 AM

Saudi are now making the barren desert into a rich fertile land with the use of irrigation and they wanted to be food independent rather than relying on imports alone. Aside from that they are also developing other business to make Saudi a more competitive country.

Is this some sort of a joke? The Saudis exhausted their water reserves in the late 1980s, after using all of it to farm wheat. Right now, they have hardly any water for irrigation. And water from desalination is extremely expensive (in Israel, the rate is around $0.50 per cubic meter, but in Saudi it costs two times that). For irrigation, you need water at less than $0.05 per cubic meter.

jaysabi

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Zero hedge is slightly more reputable than infowars as far as integrity of information goes. That is to say, it's slightly less of a raging dumpster fire than the trash that falls out of Alex Jones' gaping maw. The website has dozens of writers who all post under the same anonymous pseudonym (so much for journalistic integrity and accountability) and Bloomberg traced ownership to some disgraced former eastern European hedge fund analyst who was barred from the financial industry for insider trading. That should tell you all you need to know about how far you can trust anything that appears on that website. Post those sources at your own risk.

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Had to laugh after reading these news on Zerohedge today Cheesy

OPEC Panics, Warns US Shale Not To "Assume" Production Cut Extension
All it took for OPEC to panic, was the sharpest drop in oil prices since last summer, sending WTI not only back under $50, but also wiping out all gains since the November Vienna "supply cut" deal.

And another one:

Rising Rig Count Leads US Shale To Kill Off The OPEC-Driven Oil Price Rally
With US crude inventories at record highs and production surging higher, the ongoing oil rig count rise in America (up 8 to 617 - 8th week in a row and highest since Sept 2015) signals more 'problems' ahead for a record level of speculative long positioning in black gold.

It is time to get prepared for the next short rally.

Lieldoryn

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Oil prices dived under the influence of a combination of factors. It is the prospect of resource development on the outer continental shelf in the United States, significant growth of reserves of oil and activity of drillers in the U.S., strengthening the dollar, disruptions in the oil fields in Libya, Iran to a new level of production, lower demand forecasts in China, reductions in the price of Saudi oil. A list of the various factors that now have come together.
Also on the mark Brent crushed material factors. Plus, the price down pushing another "verbal intervention" of the OPEC members that the market believes less and less.
What's next? Probability, about 75% in favor of further decline in oil prices. There is also the possibility of a pullback. But the time.

Xester

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Quote from: Sithara007 on March 09, 2017, 04:14:06 AM

Quote from: jaysabi on March 06, 2017, 02:53:08 PM

Granted, the Saudi reliance on oil is significant compared to other nations. But Saudi Arabia is already on a quest to diversify the economy. The sovereign wealth fund is aimed at transporting the economy to be less oil-dependent, and the sale of part of Saudi Aramco in an IPO has been publicly acknowledged to be for the purpose of shoring up the sovereign wealth fund for this exact purpose. Other oil-rich nations have so far had more success diversifying away from oil, especially UAE, which has been working to establish a robust tourism industry with its oil wealth before the oil runs dry.

Saudi Arabia may not be able to reduce its dependency on oil, unlike Iran. Just compare the two countries. Unlike Iran, Saudi Arabia has no major non-petroleum natural resources. Saudi Arabia imports almost all of its food. Also, the education level of the population is quite low, unlike that in Iran.

Unlike other Arab countries, Saudi Arabia has good economic advisers and they are thinking in advance that when oil depletion will really occur they already have placed some alternative economic movement in their country. Saudi are now making the barren desert into a rich fertile land with the use of irrigation and they wanted to be food independent rather than relying on imports alone. Aside from that they are also developing other business to make Saudi a more competitive country.

deisik

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Quote from: Sithara007 on March 09, 2017, 04:14:06 AM

Quote from: jaysabi on March 06, 2017, 02:53:08 PM

Granted, the Saudi reliance on oil is significant compared to other nations. But Saudi Arabia is already on a quest to diversify the economy. The sovereign wealth fund is aimed at transporting the economy to be less oil-dependent, and the sale of part of Saudi Aramco in an IPO has been publicly acknowledged to be for the purpose of shoring up the sovereign wealth fund for this exact purpose. Other oil-rich nations have so far had more success diversifying away from oil, especially UAE, which has been working to establish a robust tourism industry with its oil wealth before the oil runs dry.

Saudi Arabia may not be able to reduce its dependency on oil, unlike Iran. Just compare the two countries. Unlike Iran, Saudi Arabia has no major non-petroleum natural resources. Saudi Arabia imports almost all of its food. Also, the education level of the population is quite low, unlike that in Iran

This is an important but not the only one factor which should be taken into account

While it is certainly true that Iranian economy is a lot more diversified than Saudi Arabian, we should also look at the total population figures (which is another important factor at play here). Population of Iran is about 80 million people, while Saudi Arabia's only 30 million, i.e. two and a half times less. Provided all other things are being equal, Saudi Arabia wouldn't be able to diversify its economy as much as Iran. There just wouldn't be enough hands to make this diversification possible

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Quote from: Sithara007 on March 09, 2017, 04:14:06 AM

Quote from: jaysabi on March 06, 2017, 02:53:08 PM

Granted, the Saudi reliance on oil is significant compared to other nations. But Saudi Arabia is already on a quest to diversify the economy. The sovereign wealth fund is aimed at transporting the economy to be less oil-dependent, and the sale of part of Saudi Aramco in an IPO has been publicly acknowledged to be for the purpose of shoring up the sovereign wealth fund for this exact purpose. Other oil-rich nations have so far had more success diversifying away from oil, especially UAE, which has been working to establish a robust tourism industry with its oil wealth before the oil runs dry.

Saudi Arabia may not be able to reduce its dependency on oil, unlike Iran. Just compare the two countries. Unlike Iran, Saudi Arabia has no major non-petroleum natural resources. Saudi Arabia imports almost all of its food. Also, the education level of the population is quite low, unlike that in Iran.

Not only Saudi Arabia most of the east Asian countries have the same wealth. When oil prices got down the entire economy went down, now it looks to stabilize a bit creating a market by decreasing the supply and making a increase in the price. If the same continues at one point other countries try to make control of it.

Sithara007

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Quote from: jaysabi on March 06, 2017, 02:53:08 PM

Granted, the Saudi reliance on oil is significant compared to other nations. But Saudi Arabia is already on a quest to diversify the economy. The sovereign wealth fund is aimed at transporting the economy to be less oil-dependent, and the sale of part of Saudi Aramco in an IPO has been publicly acknowledged to be for the purpose of shoring up the sovereign wealth fund for this exact purpose. Other oil-rich nations have so far had more success diversifying away from oil, especially UAE, which has been working to establish a robust tourism industry with its oil wealth before the oil runs dry.

Saudi Arabia may not be able to reduce its dependency on oil, unlike Iran. Just compare the two countries. Unlike Iran, Saudi Arabia has no major non-petroleum natural resources. Saudi Arabia imports almost all of its food. Also, the education level of the population is quite low, unlike that in Iran.

jaysabi

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According to the USGS, the earthquake risk to Oklahoma and southern Kansas equals that of California. Unlike California, which sits on major fault lines, Oklahoma's problem is considered to be a direct cause of fracking. The largest earthquake ever recorded in Oklahoma occurred just last year (5. Cool

. Between 1980 and 2000, there were only about 2 earthquakes above 2.7 per year, but there were 2,500 in 2014 and over 4.000 in 2015. For every barrel of oil produced by fracking, about 50 barrels of waste water and chemicals are injected into the ground. Absent the earthquakes, I wonder about the environmental impact of fracking. I guess the earthquakes are just the icing on the cake. Source: http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-oklahome-earthquake-20170301-story.html

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Quote from: alyssa85 on March 06, 2017, 01:33:08 PM

Quote from: jaysabi on March 06, 2017, 01:27:16 PM

Quote from: Sithara007 on February 28, 2017, 02:21:21 AM

Quote from: STT on February 27, 2017, 03:10:52 PM

I didnt think it was as high as 80 to balance their budget, hardly struggling exactly but Saudi Arabia is also issuing their own bonds. I do think to do such things they might be better to demand payment in their own currency and if Trump continues his alteration of long term policies who knows. I know Iran has big problems with higher costs, lack of investment for many decades. BP is moving into Iran despite losing half their company there in the seventies, must be extreme.

Actually I was wrong. Saudi Arabia needs a crude oil price of $104 per barrel to balance its budget (perhaps they can adjust slightly by increasing the production). There is not a single oil producing country, which can survive at $55 per barrel in the long term. Check this:

But this is a two-dimensional view of a multi-dimensional issue. This looks solely at oil as the changing factor in a balanced budget without regard to all of the other variables which determine whether or not a budget is balanced. For example, it ignores all other sources of revenue and budget cuts and focuses solely on a static budget that doesn't change, and all other sources of revenue are assumed not to change as well. It's far less important if the country can "balance the budget with the current price of oil" than if the country can produce oil at a profit at a particular price. Then, by definition, all oil production decreases the budget deficit. Concluding that a country cannot sell oil at a particular price because it doesn't allow them to balance the budget is not a sound conclusion. It's only an issue if they can't make a profit at the price.

The bolded bit is very true. The issue with Saudi is that it doesn't have a balanced economy, it is entirely oil driven.

Whereas Iran's economy is much more diverse - they export Caviar for example, plus Persian carpets, they have good agricultural land, so they can export food as well. I'm pretty sure Iran will win it's battle for domination against the Saudis because their economy is more diversified. The figures you have for the level of oil price needed to balance Iran's economy are from before the sanctions were lifted. Now sanctions are lifted, they can export lots of other stuff too, which helps them cope.

Granted, the Saudi reliance on oil is significant compared to other nations. But Saudi Arabia is already on a quest to diversify the economy. The sovereign wealth fund is aimed at transporting the economy to be less oil-dependent, and the sale of part of Saudi Aramco in an IPO has been publicly acknowledged to be for the purpose of shoring up the sovereign wealth fund for this exact purpose. Other oil-rich nations have so far had more success diversifying away from oil, especially UAE, which has been working to establish a robust tourism industry with its oil wealth before the oil runs dry.

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Quote from: jaysabi on March 06, 2017, 01:27:16 PM

Quote from: Sithara007 on February 28, 2017, 02:21:21 AM

Quote from: STT on February 27, 2017, 03:10:52 PM

I didnt think it was as high as 80 to balance their budget, hardly struggling exactly but Saudi Arabia is also issuing their own bonds. I do think to do such things they might be better to demand payment in their own currency and if Trump continues his alteration of long term policies who knows. I know Iran has big problems with higher costs, lack of investment for many decades. BP is moving into Iran despite losing half their company there in the seventies, must be extreme.

Actually I was wrong. Saudi Arabia needs a crude oil price of $104 per barrel to balance its budget (perhaps they can adjust slightly by increasing the production). There is not a single oil producing country, which can survive at $55 per barrel in the long term. Check this:

But this is a two-dimensional view of a multi-dimensional issue. This looks solely at oil as the changing factor in a balanced budget without regard to all of the other variables which determine whether or not a budget is balanced. For example, it ignores all other sources of revenue and budget cuts and focuses solely on a static budget that doesn't change, and all other sources of revenue are assumed not to change as well. It's far less important if the country can "balance the budget with the current price of oil" than if the country can produce oil at a profit at a particular price. Then, by definition, all oil production decreases the budget deficit. Concluding that a country cannot sell oil at a particular price because it doesn't allow them to balance the budget is not a sound conclusion. It's only an issue if they can't make a profit at the price.

The bolded bit is very true. The issue with Saudi is that it doesn't have a balanced economy, it is entirely oil driven.

Whereas Iran's economy is much more diverse - they export Caviar for example, plus Persian carpets, they have good agricultural land, so they can export food as well. I'm pretty sure Iran will win it's battle for domination against the Saudis because their economy is more diversified. The figures you have for the level of oil price needed to balance Iran's economy are from before the sanctions were lifted. Now sanctions are lifted, they can export lots of other stuff too, which helps them cope.

jaysabi

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Quote from: Sithara007 on February 28, 2017, 02:21:21 AM

Quote from: STT on February 27, 2017, 03:10:52 PM

I didnt think it was as high as 80 to balance their budget, hardly struggling exactly but Saudi Arabia is also issuing their own bonds. I do think to do such things they might be better to demand payment in their own currency and if Trump continues his alteration of long term policies who knows. I know Iran has big problems with higher costs, lack of investment for many decades. BP is moving into Iran despite losing half their company there in the seventies, must be extreme.

Actually I was wrong. Saudi Arabia needs a crude oil price of $104 per barrel to balance its budget (perhaps they can adjust slightly by increasing the production). There is not a single oil producing country, which can survive at $55 per barrel in the long term. Check this:

But this is a two-dimensional view of a multi-dimensional issue. This looks solely at oil as the changing factor in a balanced budget without regard to all of the other variables which determine whether or not a budget is balanced. For example, it ignores all other sources of revenue and budget cuts and focuses solely on a static budget that doesn't change, and all other sources of revenue are assumed not to change as well. It's far less important if the country can "balance the budget with the current price of oil" than if the country can produce oil at a profit at a particular price. Then, by definition, all oil production decreases the budget deficit. Concluding that a country cannot sell oil at a particular price because it doesn't allow them to balance the budget is not a sound conclusion. It's only an issue if they can't make a profit at the price.

Topic: Long term OIL - page 10. (Read 91718 times)