Saudi Arabia is least likely and least able to cheat on their agreed production numbers, as the largest member of OPEC it becomes blatantly obvious when they are over producing oil. The most likely cheats in any scheme will be the smallest more remote producers who may give oil to energy users in their own country for political reasons to lower electricity cost and win voter support or similar schemes. One of the more obvious countries that happened was Venezuela where oil is given very cheaply to the people, many 'illegal' exports occur in that cheap fuel to neighbouring countries
There is no shortage of oil resource, its a question of cost to extract and ease of access. Iran has problems requiring engineering resource which leads to higher cost for them, mainly they lack investment and its sometimes true of other large countries like Russia.
The other end of the chain is demand which remains lower then it should be for years, world growth should be greater
I think with the war going on in the middle east and north Africa, and the production of oil in some of the important countries stopping, the prices of oil are gradually getting higher, the supply of the black gold is not shortened because we only use cheap oil, not the high quality oil that the countries of the OPEC have,
but over time the supply will go down and we will witness a high demand leading to high priceWelcome to the brave new world, mate!
How much time have you spent being frozen, a decade or two? The largest consumer of crude oil is the US, and they have more than enough reserves of their own oil, while the domestic production has been on the rise for the last few years. The US Congress even allowed exporting oil after a few decades of ban. It is quite possible that in a decade the US will turn from net importer into net exporter of crude oil. China, the second largest oil importer, can easily substitute Saudi Arabian oil with Russian and Iranian oils, which they have been already doing, anyway. In this way, it is unlikely that we are going to "witness a high demand leading to high price" due to tensions in the Middle East and Northern Africa any time soon
