Seriously guys, how can anyone imagine a near future without electric transportation is beyond me. Especially in china, in crowded cities, in polluted areas. [...]
edit: and oil demand would fall and tumble, and the middle east will return to poverty in a generation.
I agree with your first statement - I also expect electric cars to boom in 10-20 years from now - but not with the second. Oil is becoming increasingly difficult to extract / explore new oilfields and that has already impacted in the actual price - we wouldn't talk about "fracking" without that problem. And oil has a lot of more applications than only to be used as fuel (above all, plastics) - and in aviation oil will reign a lot of more time than in the automobile industry.
So my guess is that while there may be retracements like in the past years, oil actually will be a long-term bull market - the question is only how steep the price increase will be
And when will it happen exactly?
Unless you provide a timeline, this is no more than idle talk. If things really were as you paint them, why would OPEC ever want to restrict production? If oil prices were really set to grow, then they would most certainly expand production, not limit it. There is plenty of oil, and with technologies advancing oil producers will be able to extract more with less as it happened in "the past years"
No the time for easy to extract oil is almost over.
In the past years we had 120$/barrel, deep sea oil, fracking and shale oil which had a positive profit margin above 60$/barrel (compare easy oil 1-10$/barrel).
Right now opec is reducing oil production to get a ~ 55$/barrel price and this is just enough to take the US frackers in a negative profit margin.
At the moment i think we might actually see lower oil price in the coming years if trump really goes forward with US energy (oil) independence.
As of 2015 the US net imports of petroleum was 4,71 mmb/d and around 80% of it was crude oil.
So basically the US imports were around 4 mmb/d crude oil.
As of october 2016 the world crude oil production equaled to 80 mmb/d.
That means the world demand for crude oil would shrink by 5% alone because the US wont import crude oil anymore.
Saudia Arabia/gulf states have trillions invested in the US - part of it in the oil industry so there loss wont be that much.
Russia on the other hand will probaly weaken alot by crumbling oil and gas prices.
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