Long term OIL - page 15. | Bitcointalksearch.org

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Quote from: jaysabi on February 18, 2017, 06:41:16 PM

Quote from: Sithara007 on February 17, 2017, 01:49:50 AM

Quote from: jaysabi on February 16, 2017, 09:33:33 PM

Perhaps you're unaware of how quickly renewable energy is growing in the United States. Renewable energy in 2015 already accounted for 13% of energy generation in the US. In addition, renewable energy capacity is now growing faster than all non-renewable capacity combined. In 2016, 63% of all generation capacity gains were from renewable resources, while 32% came from natural gas and 5% from nuclear. It'll take awhile for it to reach the tipping point where renewable accounts for more overall generation than all other sources, but this is a snowball rolling downhill. It will only continue to build momentum. There's already more than enough crude to get us to the finish line.

I agree that 13% is not a small share. But then, to replace the fossil fuels, we need to manufacture electric cars at affordable prices. Right now, they are out of reach for the vast majority of the Americans. And the future supply of Lithium and Cobalt is not that assured.

I agree that for transportation, there is a long way to go before fossil fuels are displaced as the dominant source of energy. But the cars are already affordable, it's just production scale that's lacking. The Tesla Model 3 is beginning production (this week I believe), and Chevy has the Bolt, which is similarly priced in the $35,000 range and has a slightly better range. As for batteries, Tesla has the Giga Factory which is currently only operating at a fraction of capacity. When it is at 100% capacity, that single factory will be producing more lithium ion batteries than the rest of the world combined. They built that factory because they forecast that demand. The question is how quickly the demand will materialize

So the Tesla guys (Elon Musk, I guess) seem to be interested in oil prices surging

If the prices hit the mark of 100 dollars per barrel again, the gas prices are certainly going to rise as well, and that might make electric cars (Tesla included) more competitive. Though I don't know about how much affordable they will become overall since folks may just choose to drive their regular cars less. On the other hand, electric cars are still pretty expensive, and those who buy them most likely don't care about either gasoline or electricity prices

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Quote from: jaysabi on February 18, 2017, 06:46:33 PM

Quote from: mindrust on February 18, 2017, 02:52:23 PM

Nobody will pay 180$ for a barrel. Electric cars from Tesla and hybrid cars from the other companies are already being used by the masses. Soon, only the 3rd world countries will be using oil consuming cars.

The price is around 55$ because it's a sensible price. For now. It will go back to 20$ in a few years.

I don't see it getting back to being that low. It's still a phenomenally cheap energy source for the amount of energy it produces, and there are plenty of developing economies that will be looking to build their wealth by using oil just like the western world did since the beginning of the industrial revolution. Western wealth is built off oil. So even if demand drops in major industrialized nations, including the US, there will be ample demand from third world and other emerging economies, especially in Asia. I don't think it's in any oil producers interest to have oil as cheap as $20, so they're incentivized to cut production to support price. It's a wonder it took them so long to do it this time, but there are a lot of foreign policy implications at play, and they needed to feel the pain for awhile to bring them to their senses.

It is inevitable to pay 180$ a barrel because if no oil distribution company buy a oil, all oil powered cars in the world will be useless. Also there is no point mentioning Tesla for being an electric powered car because they are not even available in every country also they are considerably expensive than an oil powered car. People will still buy oil even if it is expensive.

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Quote from: mindrust on February 18, 2017, 02:52:23 PM

Nobody will pay 180$ for a barrel. Electric cars from Tesla and hybrid cars from the other companies are already being used by the masses. Soon, only the 3rd world countries will be using oil consuming cars.

The price is around 55$ because it's a sensible price. For now. It will go back to 20$ in a few years.

I don't see it getting back to being that low. It's still a phenomenally cheap energy source for the amount of energy it produces, and there are plenty of developing economies that will be looking to build their wealth by using oil just like the western world did since the beginning of the industrial revolution. Western wealth is built off oil. So even if demand drops in major industrialized nations, including the US, there will be ample demand from third world and other emerging economies, especially in Asia. I don't think it's in any oil producers interest to have oil as cheap as $20, so they're incentivized to cut production to support price. It's a wonder it took them so long to do it this time, but there are a lot of foreign policy implications at play, and they needed to feel the pain for awhile to bring them to their senses.

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Quote from: Sithara007 on February 17, 2017, 01:49:50 AM

Quote from: jaysabi on February 16, 2017, 09:33:33 PM

Perhaps you're unaware of how quickly renewable energy is growing in the United States. Renewable energy in 2015 already accounted for 13% of energy generation in the US. In addition, renewable energy capacity is now growing faster than all non-renewable capacity combined. In 2016, 63% of all generation capacity gains were from renewable resources, while 32% came from natural gas and 5% from nuclear. It'll take awhile for it to reach the tipping point where renewable accounts for more overall generation than all other sources, but this is a snowball rolling downhill. It will only continue to build momentum. There's already more than enough crude to get us to the finish line.

I agree that 13% is not a small share. But then, to replace the fossil fuels, we need to manufacture electric cars at affordable prices. Right now, they are out of reach for the vast majority of the Americans. And the future supply of Lithium and Cobalt is not that assured.

I agree that for transportation, there is a long way to go before fossil fuels are displaced as the dominant source of energy. But the cars are already affordable, it's just production scale that's lacking. The Tesla Model 3 is beginning production (this week I believe), and Chevy has the Bolt, which is similarly priced in the $35,000 range and has a slightly better range. As for batteries, Tesla has the Giga Factory which is currently only operating at a fraction of capacity. When it is at 100% capacity, that single factory will be producing more lithium ion batteries than the rest of the world combined. They built that factory because they forecast that demand. The question is how quickly the demand will materialize.

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Nobody will pay 180$ for a barrel. Electric cars from Tesla and hybrid cars from the other companies are already being used by the masses. Soon, only the 3rd world countries will be using oil consuming cars.

The price is around 55$ because it's a sensible price. For now. It will go back to 20$ in a few years.

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Quote from: Theb on February 17, 2017, 02:21:31 AM

I guess it is a possibility, all major oil producing countries agreed to cut produtcion or even stop producing Russia, Saudi and USA all agreed into it. Also they have said they have done this because of the over supply of oil. It is a good control because it will be hard for us to have a scarce supply in the future

Why would the US want to join these negotiations?

It is a bit counterintuitive, i.e. they first lift the ban on exporting oil from the US, and then join the talks about lowering the production of it? As to me, that doesn't make much sense. It is almost accepted as a universal truth that major OPEC countries (Saudi Arabia before anyone else) had been trying to squash the US frackers by massively expanding production and heavily crashing the oil prices and now the latter should listen to what the former are saying?

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Quote from: Theb on February 17, 2017, 02:21:31 AM

I guess it is a possibility, all major oil producing countries agreed to cut produtcion or even stop producing Russia, Saudi and USA all agreed into it. Also they have said they have done this because of the over supply of oil. It is a good control because it will be hard for us to have a scarce supply in the future.

The American producers never agreed to any of it. The negotiations were between the OPEC members, and a few non-OPEC producers such as Russia. The American frackers are nowhere in the picture. They have never negotiated with the OPEC till now.

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I guess it is a possibility, all major oil producing countries agreed to cut produtcion or even stop producing Russia, Saudi and USA all agreed into it. Also they have said they have done this because of the over supply of oil. It is a good control because it will be hard for us to have a scarce supply in the future.

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Quote from: jaysabi on February 16, 2017, 09:33:33 PM

Perhaps you're unaware of how quickly renewable energy is growing in the United States. Renewable energy in 2015 already accounted for 13% of energy generation in the US. In addition, renewable energy capacity is now growing faster than all non-renewable capacity combined. In 2016, 63% of all generation capacity gains were from renewable resources, while 32% came from natural gas and 5% from nuclear. It'll take awhile for it to reach the tipping point where renewable accounts for more overall generation than all other sources, but this is a snowball rolling downhill. It will only continue to build momentum. There's already more than enough crude to get us to the finish line.

I agree that 13% is not a small share. But then, to replace the fossil fuels, we need to manufacture electric cars at affordable prices. Right now, they are out of reach for the vast majority of the Americans. And the future supply of Lithium and Cobalt is not that assured.

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oil price is reserve USD price, if USD price incraese high, ussualy oil price is down
but oil price is difenrence gold price, oil price still influenced suply and demand OPEC country, so oil price prediction is complicated

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Quote from: Sithara007 on February 12, 2017, 09:46:21 AM

Quote from: jaysabi on February 11, 2017, 04:28:50 PM

That's not the only way. The far better option is continuing to develop renewable energy so that nobody has to give a damn about oil anymore. There's no reason to drill in any protected area. We're not that hard up for oil. And once we're off it, or we've severely reduced our need, we can let the rest of the world wallow in in the misery of having a foreign policy designed around securing oil from the Middle East or elsewhere.

We've been trying to develop the renewable energy alternatives for the past many decades and there has been hardly any success. And I don't think that it will happen in the near future as well. So it is important to find other viable resources of crude oil.

Perhaps you're unaware of how quickly renewable energy is growing in the United States. Renewable energy in 2015 already accounted for 13% of energy generation in the US. In addition, renewable energy capacity is now growing faster than all non-renewable capacity combined. In 2016, 63% of all generation capacity gains were from renewable resources, while 32% came from natural gas and 5% from nuclear. It'll take awhile for it to reach the tipping point where renewable accounts for more overall generation than all other sources, but this is a snowball rolling downhill. It will only continue to build momentum. There's already more than enough crude to get us to the finish line.

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Quote from: STT on February 09, 2017, 05:57:35 PM

USA is large enough to join OPEC if it wanted. Ideally no import of oil would be required, its possible but some work is required not just more production

Quote

On the other hand, how good is natural gas for small passenger cars?

Wouldn't it require too much volume for the same distance compared to gasoline?

The gas is liquefied. I own a car that works off camping gas, natural gas would burn as cleanly as a kitchen cooker pretty much. The fumes are mostly water. Yes it is less efficient then petrol in pure energy for weight however with technology it can be near equivalent. The reason for this is petrol is an unstable explosive gas as used by car engines but the cooking gas is very stable which allows the engine itself to use greater compression in each cylinder and gain more power.

Not enough research has been done but I have no doubt USA should be using natural gas for its cars. Enough energy is available domestically to power every device and car in USA for 50 years with no oil used, every barrel can go abroad. Of course Im talking about alot of technology and conversion required there but if people wanted it could be done. USA would dominate in oil production with no need itself, right now USA is weak with trade deficits in many industries.
I believe Saudi Arabia is increasing its use of solar power, which is a correct path for them to develop also

https://t.co/uomvIqmDXJ

There are some cars and light trucks that run on either CNG or LNG (compressed natural gas or liquefied natural gas). They're not that common. First, people don't like to change, and using a natural gas vehicle makes some people uneasy. More importantly, the infrastructure is severely lacking for light vehicle refueling. Natural gas has far more potential for the heavy trucking industry. There is already some pretty significant infrastructure to service heavily trafficked portions of the country. A company called Clean Energy Fuels has been instrumental in building out and supplying what they call America's Natural Gas Highway, which is the corridor in the southeast of the country that is the biggest in commercial shipping. The company was co-founded by T. Boone Pickens, noted oilman who's been making large investments towards converting heavy trucking fleets to run on natural gas by helping build out the infrastructure necessary to support the transition.

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Quote from: fr4nkthetank on February 12, 2017, 02:50:49 PM

Thats true. I suppose though next time there is a huge oil price spike - renewables and alternative energy tech will really take off. Once it hits a certain price then something else will substitute for it.

There are alternatives such as bio-diesel, which may become viable if a huge spike occurs in the crude prices. But the spike needs to remain for a long time. Vehicle engines need modifications before they can use bio-diesel. So the replacement will start only if the spike remains for a long duration.

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Quote from: d5000 on February 13, 2017, 12:36:49 PM

Quote from: deisik on February 11, 2017, 03:29:27 PM

And when will it happen exactly?

Unless you provide a timeline, this is no more than idle talk. If things really were as you paint them, why would OPEC ever want to restrict production? If oil prices were really set to grow, then they would most certainly expand production, not limit it. There is plenty of oil, and with technologies advancing oil producers will be able to extract more with less as it happened in "the past years"

criptix already has answered most of your concerns.

It is impossible to draw an exact timeline. But it is a fact that there continously less "conventional" oil left.

And the OPEC production restriction was a reaction to the over-production - because of less economic growth than expected - in the years before that drove oil prices down (that probably had the intention to drive out the unconventional oil producers of the US out of the market but had only limited success). It's a temporary measure and I'm sure we'll see in the next 10 years again prices over 100 USD per barrel - without any restrictions by OPEC.

Don't get me wrong: I think "peak oil" is still decades away. But "conventional peak oil" will come soon. Obviously in the future prices of unconventional oil extraction can sink, but I don't expect the costs to fall that low like today's conventional oil in the next 20-30 years.

PS: I consider the phrase I highlighted a conceptual error, as recent oil production levels are based on recent prices and not future price estimations. Why should I sell my oil cheap now if I can sell it more expensively in the future?

Maybe, because you need money now, not in the future?

Apart from that, I still don't think that distinguishing between "conventional" and "unconventional" oil makes any sense in respect to their prices. In other words, it is total volume of oil production that affects prices, i.e. you can't say that the price of conventional oil goes up while unconventional oil goes down. Indeed, oil comes in a wide variety of sorts and sizes (so to speak), but as I see it, if we exclude distance and transportation factors, these types of oil can be easily substituted with each other

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Quote from: deisik on February 11, 2017, 03:29:27 PM

And when will it happen exactly?

Unless you provide a timeline, this is no more than idle talk. If things really were as you paint them, why would OPEC ever want to restrict production? If oil prices were really set to grow, then they would most certainly expand production, not limit it. There is plenty of oil, and with technologies advancing oil producers will be able to extract more with less as it happened in "the past years"

criptix already has answered most of your concerns.

It is impossible to draw an exact timeline. But it is a fact that there continously less "conventional" oil left (see here for a graph).

And the OPEC production restriction was a reaction to the over-production - because of less economic growth than expected - in the years before that drove oil prices down (that probably had the intention to drive out the unconventional oil producers of the US out of the market but had only limited success). It's a temporary measure and I'm sure we'll see in the next 10 years again prices over 100 USD per barrel - without any restrictions by OPEC.

Don't get me wrong: I think "peak oil" is still decades away. But "conventional peak oil" will come soon. Obviously in the future prices of unconventional oil extraction can sink, but I don't expect the costs to fall that low like today's conventional oil in the next 20-30 years.

PS: I consider the phrase I highlighted a conceptual error, as recent oil production levels are based on recent prices and not future price estimations. Why should I sell my oil cheap now if I can sell it more expensively in the future?

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Quote from: VTCutch on February 12, 2017, 01:28:06 PM

Quote from: Sithara007 on February 12, 2017, 09:46:21 AM

Quote from: jaysabi on February 11, 2017, 04:28:50 PM

That's not the only way. The far better option is continuing to develop renewable energy so that nobody has to give a damn about oil anymore. There's no reason to drill in any protected area. We're not that hard up for oil. And once we're off it, or we've severely reduced our need, we can let the rest of the world wallow in in the misery of having a foreign policy designed around securing oil from the Middle East or elsewhere.

We've been trying to develop the renewable energy alternatives for the past many decades and there has been hardly any success. And I don't think that it will happen in the near future as well. So it is important to find other viable resources of crude oil.

You're right, all searches for alternative energy unsuccessful. Oil has always occupied a place among the most important energy sources. And in the coming years is unlikely that anything will change

Thats true. I suppose though next time there is a huge oil price spike - renewables and alternative energy tech will really take off. Once it hits a certain price then something else will substitute for it.

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Quote from: Sithara007 on February 12, 2017, 09:46:21 AM

Quote from: jaysabi on February 11, 2017, 04:28:50 PM

That's not the only way. The far better option is continuing to develop renewable energy so that nobody has to give a damn about oil anymore. There's no reason to drill in any protected area. We're not that hard up for oil. And once we're off it, or we've severely reduced our need, we can let the rest of the world wallow in in the misery of having a foreign policy designed around securing oil from the Middle East or elsewhere.

We've been trying to develop the renewable energy alternatives for the past many decades and there has been hardly any success. And I don't think that it will happen in the near future as well. So it is important to find other viable resources of crude oil.

You're right, all searches for alternative energy unsuccessful. Oil has always occupied a place among the most important energy sources. And in the coming years is unlikely that anything will change

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Quote from: jaysabi on February 11, 2017, 04:28:50 PM

That's not the only way. The far better option is continuing to develop renewable energy so that nobody has to give a damn about oil anymore. There's no reason to drill in any protected area. We're not that hard up for oil. And once we're off it, or we've severely reduced our need, we can let the rest of the world wallow in in the misery of having a foreign policy designed around securing oil from the Middle East or elsewhere.

We've been trying to develop the renewable energy alternatives for the past many decades and there has been hardly any success. And I don't think that it will happen in the near future as well. So it is important to find other viable resources of crude oil.

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Quote from: jaysabi on February 11, 2017, 04:31:17 PM

Quote from: Sithara007 on February 09, 2017, 12:19:55 PM

Quote from: deisik on February 06, 2017, 03:12:01 AM

On the other hand, Russia was rumored to have been secretly buying Iranian oil previously and then reselling it as their own to European countries. Why couldn't they do it all over again?

After all, the US has no access to the Caspian Sea to check that trade (unlike the Persian Gulf)

This is the first time I am hearing about it. How can Iran smuggle oil to Russia, when dozens of American military satellites are scanning every square inch of the Russo-Iranian border? Also, I don't think that Russia will take the risk of dishonoring the UN sanctions.

I would imagine Iran moves their oil via ships. The largest importers of Iranian oil are China (22%), Japan (14%), India (13%), and the combined EU (18%) with Italy and Spain comprising the largest there, followed by, to a much smaller extent, France, Germany, and the UK. This information was from 2011, though. Plenty could have changed since then, but I would generally expect the ratios to be in the same ballpark. Just because the US slaps sanctions on Iran doesn't mean everyone else is going to follow. Each country is going to pursue its own foreign policy as it sees it to be in its best interest.

Yup it will be through ships. What the importing countries have to avoid is any linkage to US payment systems. If that does happen, the money is likely to be frozen. As long as you deal through EUR and through designated banks, you should be okay.

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Quote from: STT on February 11, 2017, 06:42:50 PM

Quote

Right now opec is reducing oil production to get a ~ 55$/barrel price and this is just enough to take the US frackers in a negative profit margin.

Alongside the oil price drop, frackers have been dropping their costs also so I've read. It may be closer to 40 dollars a barrel for a higher percentage then the original fall.

I agree. In some parts of the US the profit margin is 40$ upwards, but the average in 2016 was around 60$.

That was the direct reason why ~~last year~~ 2015-2016 the oil rig count in the US dropped by ~500 (if i remember correctly).

Topic: Long term OIL - page 15. (Read 91976 times)