40-50 years is by far on the short side of estimates. Most estimates have us around 100 years still.
These so called "estimates" are not worth a shit
Yeah, it's probably better to pretend oil is infinite instead of trying to project how long oil could possibly last based on the information available.
Such projections simply don't make much sense, since within a hundred years a multitude of events will certainly happen that will render these predictions (the proper name) utterly useless and pointless...
Look at what happened during the last one hundred years (to get a clue, lol)
They make sense in that it's the best we can estimate given everything we know, and it would be foolish to not make projections just because they can't be 100% accurate. Oil is too vital to the world economy and energy needs to live in complete ignorance, which is what not making projections would be. No one is claiming 100% accuracy. When new information becomes available (such as a new reserve located or a change in the global consumption rate) the projections are updated. The projections are immensely useful because this knowledge directly impacts where investment goes (into searching for more oil, extracting already proven reserves, or developing alternative energy sources). Not making the projections is utterly idiotic.
No one is talking about avoiding making well-founded projections and calculated assumptions altogether, but projections for a hundred years ahead are flat-out fishy and sound quite phony...
Like the Soviets promising a brighter future, wtf
Again, you're not talking about the same thing as me, or you're not understanding what I'm saying. When they make a projection on when oil will run out, it's based on usually three key pieces of information: proven oil reserves, rate of consumption, and expected change in consumption rate based on the current trend line. Then there are many lesser factors that might be considered, like speculation on finding new reserves or changes in technology that allow greater access to difficult to access oil. The projection is just a number based on the three main pierces of information that let us estimate how long our oil supply will last. If that number happens to be 100 years, they're not claiming to be projecting what the oil situation will be in 100 years, they're simply saying that oil will last 100 years if nothing changes.
Things always change, but this is the best we can reasonably do, and it's necessary information to know, because the difference between oil lasting 100 years and oil lasting 20 years is a tremendous difference that will vastly reshape global priorities.
