[...] as the user bob123 that have no idea how market works [...]
Then, please explain it to me.
Especially this:
1. More bots running the trade equals more support for the trade which equals to even higher probability of success.
How can it be more profitable for an individual if more people use the exact same strategy and make the same trades at the same time?
If i explain it do you promise you will at least read the whole thing?
Let's start with saying that Bitmex is a very liquid platform ( compared to the crypto world ), so we can have hundreds of bots managing millions of dollars in the same way and that wouldn't be a problem, that would actually increase bitcoin's price stability , and by stability i'm not speaking about flat line or sideways trading, i'm talking about the massive manipulations going on, and Bitmex is the home of manipulations, strongest the orderbook harder is to manipulate! While developing the bots, the easiest thing was to beat the market. the hardest was how to survive the manipulations while trading 24/24h! Anyway, considering current daily volume on bitmex(4bln), managing millions is not a problem, while managing billions is more difficult but still doable.. allow me to answer with an hypothetical example:
Let's say everyone of the 2646119 bitcointalk Members join the bot's army with 500$ each, that means a TOTAL_INVESTMENT of 1.32 BLN USD.
Now a few assumptions:
- Leverage is dynamically handled by the bot based on probabilities, risk reward, near supports and resistances and other stuff.. is in the range of 0 to 25 and we'll just assume a STATIC_AVERAGE_LEVERAGE of 12.5x in the calculations
This means the bots would trade, on average, 1.32BLN * 12.5 = 16.5BLN contracts per trade!
Since the bot does several trades per day that would be impossible to accomplish with current btc liquidity( this is also why good things are yet to come for our beloved BTC). Since we can't trade all that volume, what can we do with all that liquidity ? well a lot. for example we could average our entry by entering with a grid of multiple entries while creating very big resistances at critical levels with the rest of the funds sitting unused. Or you can use that capital to create liquidity if needed. Anyway this will protect the trade which i repeat, is an ALGO TRADE, which mean many other bots are having same entry zone and same targets. The result would be similar yet somehow opposite of what's happening with BTC right now, where very few individuals control the market, exploiting the algo trades in order to create liquidity in a still relatively young market. With a huge "decentralized" army like that protecting the algo trades would be almost impossible to manipulate like today, if not with a lot more money than the army. But hey, someone needs to lose for anyone to win right? No manipulation doesn't mean that everyone wins. like i said, market is ruled by algo bots. there are many algos and many patters, manytimes there are different algos triggering at the same time with opposite side. one of the side will pay the other and the cycle goes on and on maturing the market.
So now you have all kinds of funny scenarios, do you think that what im doing is somehow special? there are huge companies and smaller quant shops and hedge fund doing this and i've spent the last 7 months working like a mad man all day on my version which after A LOT of efforts is mature enough to scale. But how can i grow a legit business if everytime i open a thread you need to spam with constant and stupid scam accusations?
this thread already costed me a lot of time and stress, which is why i hate marketing. Hopefully someone will catch my message, i will come back on bitcointalk next month with api key distribution, see you there bob!