Topic: Looks more and more like a 2011 repeat - page 3. (Read 15010 times)

Quote from: Wagner2014 on June 29, 2013, 02:21:42 PM

Quote from: amencon on June 30, 2013, 05:50:03 PM

Both Google trends and forum activity are lagging indicators. Quite nice to picture the current situation, and to compare "today" with "yesterday", but complete useless anything else.

All data are lagging indicators. All. So you are saying data is useless?

You got it wrong. Those indicators are lagging (and useless to predict future price) because both forum activity and Google searches are driven by price, and not the other way around.

Pray-tell... Why would higher price increase forum activity?

I think the theory is that it would increase forum activity for the same reasons it would increase Google searches. If more people are interested enough to Google search it then why wouldn't those same underlying factors not also drive more people to satiate their inquiries through posting/viewing on these forums?

And why does it increase Google searches?

I'm not saying it does, however it does seem likely when you look at the correlation between search metrics and price history.

Assuming it does some guesses:
- increased media attention puts it at the forefront of attention for some people causing them to search for to see what other related news they might have missed out on.
- coin holders now have to potential reasons to sell their coins (or buy if they think the up trend continues) which leads them to search or discuss state of affairs and options on the forums.
- people following and believers of bitcoins have increased reason to discuss bitcoins with others. Whether to gloat or give investment advice or whatever.
- probably a ton more I can't of off the top of my head.

What about the converse?

Bitcoin is at the forefront of attention; thus:

Search volume for Bitcoin drives more buyers into the market, fuelling price increases.
Speculators react to increased search volume and media coverage, further fuelling price increases.
High search volume drives media attention to Bitcoin, creating media coverage which continues to fuel price increases.

I find this more likely, as I don't see why a high price alone will drive media attention to Bitcoin.

Hmm good points. Maybe it's a bit of both? Seems possible there could be some feedback loop effect here.

dree12

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Quote from: dree12 on June 30, 2013, 02:22:24 PM

Quote from: Wagner2014 on June 29, 2013, 02:21:42 PM

Quote from: Jazkal on June 30, 2013, 03:20:03 PM

Both Google trends and forum activity are lagging indicators. Quite nice to picture the current situation, and to compare "today" with "yesterday", but complete useless anything else.

All data are lagging indicators. All. So you are saying data is useless?

You got it wrong. Those indicators are lagging (and useless to predict future price) because both forum activity and Google searches are driven by price, and not the other way around.

Pray-tell... Why would higher price increase forum activity?

I think the theory is that it would increase forum activity for the same reasons it would increase Google searches. If more people are interested enough to Google search it then why wouldn't those same underlying factors not also drive more people to satiate their inquiries through posting/viewing on these forums?

And why does it increase Google searches?

I'm not saying it does, however it does seem likely when you look at the correlation between search metrics and price history.

Assuming it does some guesses:
- increased media attention puts it at the forefront of attention for some people causing them to search for to see what other related news they might have missed out on.
- coin holders now have to potential reasons to sell their coins (or buy if they think the up trend continues) which leads them to search or discuss state of affairs and options on the forums.
- people following and believers of bitcoins have increased reason to discuss bitcoins with others. Whether to gloat or give investment advice or whatever.
- probably a ton more I can't of off the top of my head.

What about the converse?

Bitcoin is at the forefront of attention; thus:

Search volume for Bitcoin drives more buyers into the market, fuelling price increases.
Speculators react to increased search volume and media coverage, further fuelling price increases.
High search volume drives media attention to Bitcoin, creating media coverage which continues to fuel price increases.

I find this more likely, as I don't see why a high price alone will drive media attention to Bitcoin.

nwbitcoin

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You are a geek if you are too early to the party!

Why does everyone seem to think Google is the fountain of knowledge? Google trends is a comparison tool, not a final answer. Its also based on popularity, which contrary to public opinion, is very a good way to solve a problem!

Its a tool that just highlights how many people searched for a term, over time. So, if bitcoin was most popular during its $235 peak, then that is what Google trends also shows, however, if something happened tomorrow, that would effect the trends figures for yesterday.

Let's imagine that Obama was assassinated tomorrow, by a man wearing a bitcoin forever tshirt. Bitcoin on Google trends would go sky high. How are you planning to forecast the price of such an event today? Its not possible.

More importantly, Google trends looses its power over time, as everyone becomes educated. To prove the point, do a search for Bible, and its peak was at the start of 2004, same time as Google trend started.

I do agree that 2011 is a good indicator of how the near future is going to look, but in the long term, nobody has any idea, and its just luck if anyone gets its right!

Kiaya

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For the life of me, I can't find the article. But I wanted to see if anyone else had seen it and evaluated it.

The article I'm thinking of, compared the Dollar Index vs the BTC dollar price over time, starting with right after the last BTC crash from $200. The Dollar Index was offset by three days, and it showed a pretty good leading indicator to the price of BTC.

I think you're thinking of The Genesis Block article -

http://thegenesisblock.com/want-to-know-where-btc-prices-are-going-watch-usd/

amencon

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Quote from: dree12 on June 30, 2013, 02:22:24 PM

Quote from: Wagner2014 on June 29, 2013, 02:21:42 PM

Quote from: derpinheimer on June 30, 2013, 03:07:25 PM

Both Google trends and forum activity are lagging indicators. Quite nice to picture the current situation, and to compare "today" with "yesterday", but complete useless anything else.

All data are lagging indicators. All. So you are saying data is useless?

You got it wrong. Those indicators are lagging (and useless to predict future price) because both forum activity and Google searches are driven by price, and not the other way around.

Pray-tell... Why would higher price increase forum activity?

I think the theory is that it would increase forum activity for the same reasons it would increase Google searches. If more people are interested enough to Google search it then why wouldn't those same underlying factors not also drive more people to satiate their inquiries through posting/viewing on these forums?

And why does it increase Google searches?

I'm not saying it does, however it does seem likely when you look at the correlation between search metrics and price history.

Assuming it does some guesses:
- increased media attention puts it at the forefront of attention for some people causing them to search for to see what other related news they might have missed out on.
- coin holders now have to potential reasons to sell their coins (or buy if they think the up trend continues) which leads them to search or discuss state of affairs and options on the forums.
- people following and believers of bitcoins have increased reason to discuss bitcoins with others. Whether to gloat or give investment advice or whatever.
- probably a ton more I can't of off the top of my head.

vokain

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Quote from: vokain on June 30, 2013, 03:16:22 AM

honestly it looks more like this
[img]

Honestly, it doesnt look like that at all when you compare it to the 2011 bubble, which it closely resembles.

You have to consider market maturity. The summer 2012 drop had already factored in the 2011 drop. You're entirely forgetting about that.

Jazkal

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For the life of me, I can't find the article. But I wanted to see if anyone else had seen it and evaluated it.

The article I'm thinking of, compared the Dollar Index vs the BTC dollar price over time, starting with right after the last BTC crash from $200. The Dollar Index was offset by three days, and it showed a pretty good leading indicator to the price of BTC.

How would one create a chart to track this?

johnwhitestar

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Slimcoin - the Proof of Donation inventors!

Quote from: samson on June 17, 2013, 02:12:07 AM

Quote from: silverfuture on June 16, 2013, 06:57:34 PM

Because Bitcoin is different, but human action isn't?

I think this could be the reason.

It will continue to deflate until people think it's bottomed out.

$100 is not a good price.

$20 would be a good price based on the $15 price in January - anything after mid January and a good chunk before it is pure speculation.

+1

derpinheimer

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Quote from: vokain on June 30, 2013, 03:16:22 AM

honestly it looks more like this

Honestly, it doesnt look like that at all when you compare it to the 2011 bubble, which it closely resembles.

Rampion

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Quote from: Wagner2014 on June 30, 2013, 02:53:11 PM

It's hilarious that some people think data - i.e., lagging indicators - is useless. In that case looking at charts is useless. Seeing that the price has gone up or down in the past is useless.

I guess the fact that people have used money as a means of exchange in the past has no bearing on whether they will use this new thing called bitcoin in the future, right?

Nobody said data is useless. We are saying that google searches or forum activity follow the price, and not the other way around. The higher gets the price, the higher go the google searches. As soon as an ATM is broken, there you have parabolic growth in google searches.

You don't even need to look at those charts, you know how they look on beforehand.

Wagner2014

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It's hilarious that some people think data - i.e., lagging indicators - is useless. In that case looking at charts is useless. Seeing that the price has gone up or down in the past is useless.

I guess the fact that people have used money as a means of exchange in the past has no bearing on whether they will use this new thing called bitcoin in the future, right?

dree12

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Quote from: Wagner2014 on June 29, 2013, 02:21:42 PM

Both Google trends and forum activity are lagging indicators. Quite nice to picture the current situation, and to compare "today" with "yesterday", but complete useless anything else.

All data are lagging indicators. All. So you are saying data is useless?

You got it wrong. Those indicators are lagging (and useless to predict future price) because both forum activity and Google searches are driven by price, and not the other way around.

Pray-tell... Why would higher price increase forum activity?

I think the theory is that it would increase forum activity for the same reasons it would increase Google searches. If more people are interested enough to Google search it then why wouldn't those same underlying factors not also drive more people to satiate their inquiries through posting/viewing on these forums?

And why does it increase Google searches?

amencon

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Quote from: Wagner2014 on June 29, 2013, 02:21:42 PM

Both Google trends and forum activity are lagging indicators. Quite nice to picture the current situation, and to compare "today" with "yesterday", but complete useless anything else.

All data are lagging indicators. All. So you are saying data is useless?

You got it wrong. Those indicators are lagging (and useless to predict future price) because both forum activity and Google searches are driven by price, and not the other way around.

Pray-tell... Why would higher price increase forum activity?

I think the theory is that it would increase forum activity for the same reasons it would increase Google searches. If more people are interested enough to Google search it then why wouldn't those same underlying factors not also drive more people to satiate their inquiries through posting/viewing on these forums?

dree12

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Activity: 1246

Merit: 1077

Quote from: Wagner2014 on June 29, 2013, 02:21:42 PM

Quote from: Wagner2014 on June 29, 2013, 02:21:42 PM

Both Google trends and forum activity are lagging indicators. Quite nice to picture the current situation, and to compare "today" with "yesterday", but complete useless anything else.

All data are lagging indicators. All. So you are saying data is useless?

You got it wrong. Those indicators are lagging (and useless to predict future price) because both forum activity and Google searches are driven by price, and not the other way around.

Pray-tell... Why would higher price increase forum activity?

Rampion

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Quote from: Loozik on June 29, 2013, 02:10:51 PM

Both Google trends and forum activity are lagging indicators. Quite nice to picture the current situation, and to compare "today" with "yesterday", but complete useless anything else.

All data are lagging indicators. All. So you are saying data is useless?

You got it wrong. Those indicators are lagging (and useless to predict future price) because both forum activity and Google searches are driven by price, and not the other way around.

vokain

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honestly it looks more like this

disclaimer201

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Ok.

First - Interest is going back a bit. Of course it is since new people are even warned by us that 100+USD is too high to enter safely. Or would you tell your family to start buying bitcoins at this level? I wouldn't.

Second - even if many of the fears are not valid that may be spread now through the community of fairly new adopters - they are fairly new adopters - and that means the rate at which you can try to educated them, or they can/will do it on their own may be by far not fast enough to keep up with current or arising fears (gox, laws etc).

Third - ASIC miners start selling all they mine or may become afraid to do so, even if some plan on holding for a long time (they might actually have to), and old coin holders might create additional selling pressure alike because they want to sell too before prices come back down. Asic miners alone wouldn't be an issue, but if a down trend starts, it might start a vicious circle of fear.

Fourth - In case such a circle starts, we haven't even talked about short sellers in a long time. Let alone the fact that there are now many other alternate currencies that may interfere (people hedging in litecoins for example)

Good luck everyone. May I be wrong.

Loozik

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Born to chew bubble gum and kick ass

sorry for double posting. I am experimenting with new image upload site.

Jozzaboy

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I think different timeframes should be used to compare both bubbles

A negative Bitcoin value? Sure, I'll be paid to buy your bitcoins. Sounds good to me.

Wagner2014

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