Bitcoin is not going to take over the world, it is going to die a slow drawn out death, amongst a cesspit of exchange corruption, hacks, and thefts, as the Chinese miners with their massive energy rebates, who cannot make ends meet at $500 (or less) Bitcoin, slowly start to throw in the towel and switch off their farms, bringing the network to grinding halt, with 24 hour transaction confirmations becoming standard.......
A trader? making the same mistakes? it can't be!
You believe bitcoin is going to die, because you are emotionally invested. It has to die, or you will feel an overwhelming sense of failure for missing out when everyone said just buy and hold, and you decided they were wrong.
You were here before the 266 run up and if you'd bought and hodlded you would be up, probably a lot, so much so that it would probably be impossible for you *not* to be at a negative cost basis right now. So you are kicking yourself. When it crashed from 266 everyone kept saying just buy and hold, it still never went much below 100 and so it still seemed too expensive. (I was there I remember feeling that). So you didn't you decided to trade, because they were all wrong, and trading is surely a better way to profit. Then it went over $1k and once again the opportunity was lost. Then it crashed again, at 800 everyone said buy and hold, but now its way too expensive so trading is surely the better option. Then it went down to $500 and all the traders laughed at the buy and holders, because still its far too expensive to buy now and ever make any serious profit just holding. I was still buying, then at 400 I was still buying, and then 300 I'm buying and thinking "seriously why aren't you buying and holding!?!?!". All around I see traders... "no, no, more profit is to be had trading!".
I feel the emotional turmoil of all the buys that are above the current price, and all the sells that were below the current price. Two days ago I discovered that I could finally buy a BTC ETF in my SIPP, so I went ahead and pulled the trigger with a huge chunk of change, and here I am two days later 25% down, d'oh. Its just the same old story. It goes up, it goes down, I can only ever lose what I have invested. I have only invested what I can afford to lose. I couldn't possibly have predicted when any given catastrophe is going to hit the price.
You are suffering from anchoring, you can't see that $1 of bitcoin bought *right now* costs you $1 if it goes to nothing, but could net you several thousand percent gain if the black swan happens. All you can see is the price then, the price now, and how you missed out already. So to soothe your loss you declare bitcoin to have failed. If it has failed, then you were right all along and you can feel better.
To me that seems an even more risky than buy and hold, but what would I know about risk - I am not a trader!
Short selling anything is the worst possible risk profile imho. Limited upside, unlimited downside. Why on earth anyone would short anything is beyond me.
You are mentally *short* on bitcoin, that looks like a really dangerous trade from where I am stood.