Topic: Lose all your capital fast, with MatTheCat and his TA 101A! - page 41. (Read 85774 times)

Not only was the shakeout dip manufactured, but the whole pump is totally manufactured. The aim of the game is surely to ignite a big FOMO driven pump, with the public all piling into Bitcoin at the 23rd hour, as Bitcoin starts to make headline news. Now if the pumpers are going to start throwing their money at defending $570, or $580 (as it is now), then of course, Bitcoin will pump further, regardless of how threadbare a string is holding it altogether. Afterall, it isn't like we haven't seen all that in Bitcoinland before. But I would have thought, that 'they' would want to get as many serious traders on board as possible for this one, and to do that, 'they' need to give the rise in Bitcoin legitimacy, and that for me means a 38.2% retrace, back down to the Point of Control, where a shit ton of buying interest prevents Bitcoin from dipping much lower than that corresponding $540 level, and even then, the Volume Profile suggests that backfilling needs to be done way back down to $470ish.....(I have a stink bid down there, but I have almost zero anticipation that it will be filled).

If however, we are already in the latter stages of the pump, then perhaps Bitcoin just goes shooting up to around $700 from here?


Since the market is so fabricated, it is impossible to tell what BTC will do next by simply looking at technicals alone. But for most 'technicians' to get interested in Bitcoin again, they are going to want to see a 38.2% retrace, back down into a 'socially acceptable' buying area. Right at the moment, the dwindling volume and the raging momentum divergences are just screaming 'WARNING, WARNING'. If 'they' decide to pump Bitcoin further here regardless, then all the best to them.......(and by that I mean fuck those sleekit theiving Chinese cunts)

23.6 Fib level is $560, because you count the rise from the starting point of the rise, not from a manufactured shake out dip before it began.  As you can see, it went there once, but hasn't really wanted to go back.  The first floor post-rise was $520-525 fib level, then it rose to a $535-540 floor range right at another fib level.  $570 has been a pretty strong floor, but if that failed, $560 would probably be heavily defended.

Paria, read again what i said.

I said USD can be weak to other currencies (NOT YUAN, but EURO, SWISS FRANK and others) while at the same time yuan is weak to USD.

This is not a contradiction at all.

Also, the west is not buying "because USD is weak" the west is buying because china is buying. If the price is much higher in one exchange, then the other exchanges will soon follow due to arbitrage. And that's exactly what happened.

There's absolutely no contradiction there, and if you believe there is one, you did not read it well enough.

Wait.... could it be that roach is mats alter-ego??

Like gollum from LotR?

Bitcoin may or may not be a good investment (it's more of a pyramid scheme), but that's not what's being discussed. Fixed your bold tags 4u

I would agree, except there are no leveraged longs to margin either, so why bother?

Shorts were squeezed, now is a better time as any to leave them stranded with their worthless $.

No free rides on the bitcoin train, you need balls of steel and hands of carbon reinforced fiber.

bitcoin is both money as well as an asset class, so it's a good investment right now. It's not the same as 'money in the mattress'.

Try reading.

An advise to Mat from Wyckoff :

“…all the fluctuations in the market and in all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man’s operations. Let us call him the Composite Man, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the stocks to your disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it; and to your great profit if you do understand it.”

Don't trade against your idea as some have stated and you sometimes, just learn the Composite Man operations and you will profit from it.

I think a relatively safe short-term trade is getting in around mid-low 580's and riding to about 600-605 or so. This current upward momentum shows no signs of stopping, the story of the halving soon (whether or not it ends up actually having a fundamental long-term impact, which I personally believe it will) is leading to some degree of panic buying/buying the "rumor" prior to actual halving date.

We will see.

I would much rather hitch a ride on the BTC pump, getting on and off left, right, and centre, and coming away from it with less than 50% of then potential upside profit that I might have had, had I just bought and held; than having bought in and held, and witnessed the full profit taking potential of my investment only to witness the whole lot go up in smoke, and as I HODL in total fucking denial, then watch my investment plunge into the red.

I have done the latter before, and yes, I did throw in the towel of despair at the bottom (at a substantial loss). It won't be happening again.


I suspect that this BTC pump, will fall well short of many peoples expectations.

Not mine, I 'expect' at some point, to see $800 range....maybe a tag of $1000.....but beyond that!? Forget it. It is all manufactured shit. A pump n dump and nothing more than that. People who don't understand that are gonna get their hearts broke, not to mention their capital decimated.

If there is a Chinese currency crisis or something like that, then who knows where BTC might go...but all the Chinese govenment would have to do to prevent Bitcoin from being a cource of capital leakage, is ban outright...and then what?

Mat is still making moronic posts pretending the price is supposed to be $400 after halving I see, like all we're looking at now is just some spooky, dangerous, and illusionary price that shouldn't exist LOL.  When the fuck are you going to learn Mat?  Have you looked at Bitmain prices on their new 16nm miners released a couple days ago?  They're selling the things with year+ ROI times, so basically with prices in mind of BTC being $1000+.  If you were going to buy a 16nm miner, you would be receiving a massive discount by just buying BTC now instead.  This is another reason BTC is just going to keep going up and up till the spread of the ASIC price vs dollar cost average price of just buying BTC is closer.

Probably well advised....with that said, I haven't seen the customary Finex FU Short Stop Running blow off top yet....perhaps they have to wait until the shorts start piling up, before those fucking crooks blow Bitcoin's top?

Keep an eye on BTC swaps building on BFXdata.com, but for price to remain buoyant...that will be the giveaway.





Update:

Seems that there aren't many shorts left to squeeze. Done these studies various times and posted them here various times, but here is another example showing that before 'they' pump, they like to get a juicy bundle of shorts to squeeze:



As can be seen here, the short positions pile up, as 'they' engineer bearish market structure into Bitcoin (even daily MAs crossed down), with short positions double topping on the day of the big fucking pump (27th May). At the moment, Shorts are looking very weak, but USD swaps have all piled into longs on this break...

....based on that study, I shall stick my neck out and say that there aint gonna be a blow off top, cos all the weak shorts have already been blown off. Weak longs are next on the list imo.

I actually saw this as an opportunity sell a few, because btc pretty much went right where I was hoping it would go. Granted, my position has never been this big before, so it was about time to take some off.

Correct, I am spamming this thread with every little notion that comes into my head.....I am gonna cut it out....save the paper trades and experiment trades for log spreadsheet.


But this doesn't count as spam...this is just market observation:


Finex looks like it could rocket, imminently:





But China generally leads Bitcoin, and despite not having yet hit the classic 61.8% RLZ target (a few CNY short), this is looking set for a bit of a retracement right now, so perhaps Finex will have to hold it's horses for a while?

There is method to my madness....

I may be a bit shit just now, but more often than not, I am able to predict the general direction in which Bitcoin is going. Timing good trades, and/or sticking with good trades, is however another matter.

To get results trading, you have to be totally fucking clinical. That is what I am aiming at and I feel that I am getting closer and closer to that. But until the point when I get there, I will continue to get run over by the market....cos doing this shit well, is tough.


Retard permabulls or permabears can easily say UP UP UP, or DOWN, DOWN, DOWN 100% of the time, and get to be right 50% of the time, and in my experience that means both realising the full profit taking potential of your investments come together, and then watching it all evaporate, and then watching your principle go up in smoke as well, before chucking in the towel at the 11th hour.

Learning how to trade markets is a life skill. Right at the moment, am I doing better than the holders? Am I fuck! But in the long run, I will do, and of course TA abilities travel much further than crypto land.

I like this thread but it's getting a little tedious... I can't even tell what trades you're actually taking anymore.  The charts are getting more and more incoherent.  Just because you can draw a line between two points at any given time doesn't make it useful TA.

There's a time for dicking around with nickels and dimes and there's a time to take a medium-term position and maximize profits.  Just zoom out to a weekly time frame and try to identify what situation we're in now.
If you had just bought at $465 like most of us did, when it was abundantly clear that we were breaking up from a massive period of consolidation, then you wouldn't be biting your nails for every $10 swing.  Even at $500 or 3300 CNY would have been a good spot to buy. 

It has nothing to do with believing in Bitcoin, you don't have to.  You just have to be able to identify a money making opportunity on a scale that is rarely seen anywhere.

This thread should be titled Cat vs. Roach

You're always trying to do MICRO level trades with your chart zoomed out to MACRO level on top of that, which makes no fucking sense.  Especially when you constantly include data from when Bitcoin was $230.  You might as well keep on zooming the chart out to when Bitcoin was worth 10 cents if you're going that far.  Most of the past data you try to base things on is all irrelevant in present terms.