Yes, the support did not hold, but as soon as it broke, large amounts of volume brought the price back right up there.
Not sure what to make of this, i'm pretty sure the support will need to be tested again to see if it does in fact hold the next time.
If it breaks again, that's pretty bad news for this rally.
Oh in fact if you're looking at the first support line i drew (the upper one), the price is still below that, so it looks like china is not quite ready to break the 4000 CNY just yet.
Looks like 3733 will be tested quite soon then.
Topic: Lose all your capital fast, with MatTheCat and his TA 101A! - page 40. (Read 85774 times)
the battle for 3877 is raging atm. Although it's more like trench warfare because the volume is very low.
So far it seems to act as resistance. If this does not chance then a correction and retest of support is needed before a further rise can be achieved.
So far it seems to act as resistance. If this does not chance then a correction and retest of support is needed before a further rise can be achieved.
Looks like your support trendline has just been emphatically punctured, with market structure and momentum indicators on higher time frames looking increasingly spookier by the day imo.
I noticed something interesting today and i decided to make a follow-up on my previous chart.
Even though I don't normally do TA so you shouldn't put too much weight to my analysis. I can't help but notice this pattern.
the battle for 3877 is raging atm. Although it's more like trench warfare because the volume is very low.
So far it seems to act as resistance. If this does not chance then a correction and retest of support is needed before a further rise can be achieved.
Even though I don't normally do TA so you shouldn't put too much weight to my analysis. I can't help but notice this pattern.
the battle for 3877 is raging atm. Although it's more like trench warfare because the volume is very low.
So far it seems to act as resistance. If this does not chance then a correction and retest of support is needed before a further rise can be achieved.
We need a sitrep on the last failed Mat trade.
Have decided to stop spamming this thread with every single little idea/trade setup I have, covering like $10 of price action, and save this space for my broader views and/or longer term Bitcoin trades.
But here is my last 'failed' trade:
Came out on only 50% of target being hit:
And never did re-renter on retrace, mostly because I was in bed when the retrace hit.......but yeah, I do stuff like that all the time with winner trades.....exit too soon, the fkn n00b that I am....although tbh, would I have reacted when I seen Finex hit $561, and Mkt Sold my whole position? For sure! So I should probably count my blessings on this one.
We need a sitrep on the last failed Mat trade.
No. Futures trading at near spot is bearish, especially when they are getting nearer and nearer to spot, leaving a trail of bear market strcuture in their wake.
No, futures trading near spot is an indication of a consolidating market. Assuming the futures markets are fully liquid (a big if in Bitcoin), the spot market won't move too hard until the futures come in line.
Especially if said consolidation is expected to last a bit of time... Say, the time until settlement? 2 weeks or so?
No. Futures trading at near spot is bearish, especially when they are getting nearer and nearer to spot, leaving a trail of bear market strcuture in their wake.
No, futures trading near spot is an indication of a consolidating market. Assuming the futures markets are fully liquid (a big if in Bitcoin), the spot market won't move too hard until the futures come in line.
I have absolutely no idea what a future is and what that chart means.
A futures contract is an agreement to buy (or sell) Bitcoin at a given price, at a certain point in the future. It is a financial product that large Bitcoin miners may use to hedge their positions.
That 'spreads' chart is the difference in price between BTC spot, and the 3 Months Futures contracts. You will see that prior to Bitcoin taking off, the spreads put in a lot of 'W' market structure. You will see at the peak of the parabolic move, 3 Month Futures were trading at a $50 premium to cash markets. You will see currently, that premium is around $7. You will also see lots of bearish M market structure.
Futures price gives an indication of what the Big Boys are thinking about Bitcoin and therefore a good indication of what direction Bitcoin is going to go in.
ok see let me see if i understand.
if i made a contract with you today to buy 1 bitcoin from you after 3 months and I pay you $600 (would the payment be directly? I guess so). That would be a future contract with about $24 over spot, and indicate that we both believe the price will rise?
Are contracts ever made under spot? Is it possible to sell contracts to third parties? What forces people to keep their contract (assuming it's no smart contracts, hey, if these things are common in the stock market, smart contracts could totally work there, right?)?
It sounds a a bit similar to options, but there's still some differences i think. Because with options, you aren't forced to buy/sell.
It is very similar to options, the main difference being that futures don't have a strike price.
The quarterly contracts get settled in 17 days from now. As we get closer to the settlement date, those contracts will gradually start trading closer and closer to the index price (the average spot price of a number of exchanges). But it's important to understand that it converges to the index price, so that blue chart may go up and down a bit, but eventually it will go to zero: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Limit_(mathematics).
Another Mat fantasy post where he claims Bitcoin will crash to $3 so he can take out a long then immediately go over $1000 after. In MatTheCat world, markets are also not allowed to go sideways either, they have to either be crashing like it's 1920 or going parabolic at all times.
I have absolutely no idea what a future is and what that chart means.
A futures contract is an agreement to buy (or sell) Bitcoin at a given price, at a certain point in the future. It is a financial product that large Bitcoin miners may use to hedge their positions.
That 'spreads' chart is the difference in price between BTC spot, and the 3 Months Futures contracts. You will see that prior to Bitcoin taking off, the spreads put in a lot of 'W' market structure. You will see at the peak of the parabolic move, 3 Month Futures were trading at a $50 premium to cash markets. You will see currently, that premium is around $7. You will also see lots of bearish M market structure.
Futures price gives an indication of what the Big Boys are thinking about Bitcoin and therefore a good indication of what direction Bitcoin is going to go in.
ok see let me see if i understand.
if i made a contract with you today to buy 1 bitcoin from you after 3 months and I pay you $600 (would the payment be directly? I guess so). That would be a future contract with about $24 over spot, and indicate that we both believe the price will rise?
Are contracts ever made under spot? Is it possible to sell contracts to third parties? What forces people to keep their contract (assuming it's no smart contracts, hey, if these things are common in the stock market, smart contracts could totally work there, right?)?
It sounds a a bit similar to options, but there's still some differences i think. Because with options, you aren't forced to buy/sell.
The futures price should converge to the bitcoin price, that's normal.
Which is why prior to Bitcoin taking off, the Futures spreads put in bullish market structure, and at the peak of the move, Futures are trading at a $50 premium to spot?
No. Futures trading at near spot is bearish, especially when they are getting nearer and nearer to spot, leaving a trail of bear market strcuture in their wake.
I have absolutely no idea what a future is and what that chart means.
A futures contract is an agreement to buy (or sell) Bitcoin at a given price, at a certain point in the future. It is a financial product that large Bitcoin miners may use to hedge their positions.
That 'spreads' chart is the difference in price between BTC spot, and the 3 Months Futures contracts. You will see that prior to Bitcoin taking off, the spreads put in a lot of 'W' market structure. You will see at the peak of the parabolic move, 3 Month Futures were trading at a $50 premium to cash markets. You will see currently, that premium is around $7. You will also see lots of bearish M market structure.
Futures price gives an indication of what the Big Boys are thinking about Bitcoin and therefore a good indication of what direction Bitcoin is going to go in.
I have absolutely no idea what a future is and what that chart means.
The futures price should converge to the bitcoin price, that's normal.
what is your opinion on this?
looks to me like in less than 2 days we'll either go towards 4300CNY or drop back to 3600
looks to me like in less than 2 days we'll either go towards 4300CNY or drop back to 3600
Very interesting. Just scalped some pennies into my account on that bounce (of course, conspiring to not stick to plan resulting in taking only 60% of my actual trade target which has now been hit), and I totally overlooked the fact that a range trendline had just been tagged:
My bias is that Finex is gonna get back down to around $530-$540 area, and looking at Huobi, I would say that your 3600 target isn't far off.
To all the permabulls (r0ach) who may take exception to me suggesting that BTC is going to retrace, I would say that BTC is going to need to take a retrace, in order to set up a move, up to much bigger targets, way up the charts. Market Makers have taken their feet off the gas, and only the public been taking long position trades way up here with hope of fast profits. For pro traders to get interested in Bitcoin, they need to see a retrace and consolidation imo. Indeed, for an institutional trader to take a long BTC position trade way up here after such a parabolic move up, and not much of a retracement, they would be putting their job on the line.
BTC needs to pullback, and the longer time frame charts suggest that it will.
what is your opinion on this?
looks to me like in less than 2 days we'll either go towards 4300CNY or drop back to 3600
looks to me like in less than 2 days we'll either go towards 4300CNY or drop back to 3600
The fact that it happened on Bitfinex AND on Coinbase in the same day is pretty fucking suspicious.
4 Sure.
Coinbase don't report volume though?
When it happened there, I just thought it was due to ultra low liquidity and a fat fingered market sell.
Also. iirc, none of the other exchanges responded to Coinbase sell off?
What do you think about this scam I just witnessed on Finex, Mat?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/scammy-shit-going-on-someone-sold-009-btc-at-561-bypassing-all-walls-on-finex-1502745
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/scammy-shit-going-on-someone-sold-009-btc-at-561-bypassing-all-walls-on-finex-1502745
I was doing the chart above when it happened. Suddenly I saw, BTC had dumped by around $15, I was like "Holy Phuck!", but soon realised it was a reporting 'glitch'.....
.....or was it?
By reporting a $15 price crash, Finex caused all the other exchanges to sell off to a certain extent. That right there is a fast buck making opportunity in itself. Looking at the bigger picture, that price action, and the corresponding price action across other exchanges will alter the behaviour of bot trading algorithms. Alter them bearishly that is.
Could be that it was a genuine 'hiccup' in the system, but whenever Finex is involved with these 'glitches', I tend to get very suspiscious, the bunch of fucking crooks that Bitfinex are.
The fact that it happened on Bitfinex AND on Coinbase in the same day is pretty fucking suspicious. Coinbase went from $587 to $475 in the span of one second.
What do you think about this scam I just witnessed on Finex, Mat?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/scammy-shit-going-on-someone-sold-009-btc-at-561-bypassing-all-walls-on-finex-1502745
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/scammy-shit-going-on-someone-sold-009-btc-at-561-bypassing-all-walls-on-finex-1502745
I was doing the chart above when it happened. Suddenly I saw, BTC had dumped by around $15, I was like "Holy Phuck!", but soon realised it was a reporting 'glitch'.....
.....or was it?
By reporting a $15 price crash, Finex caused all the other exchanges to sell off to a certain extent. That right there is a fast buck making opportunity in itself. Looking at the bigger picture, that price action, and the corresponding price action across other exchanges will alter the behaviour of bot trading algorithms. Alter them bearishly that is.
Could be that it was a genuine 'hiccup' in the system, but whenever Finex is involved with these 'glitches', I tend to get very suspiscious, the bunch of fucking crooks that Bitfinex are.
Also, since $561 BTC was reported on the Finex website, I can't help wondering whether a whole bunch of Finex long Stop Orders just got triggered and market sold into the genuine Bid Wall?
I fkn hate Bitfinex....and this guy with the greed crazed stare coming out his eyes:
Has a face made for smashing pint glasses into it.
What do you think about this scam I just witnessed on Finex, Mat?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/scammy-shit-going-on-someone-sold-009-btc-at-561-bypassing-all-walls-on-finex-1502745
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/scammy-shit-going-on-someone-sold-009-btc-at-561-bypassing-all-walls-on-finex-1502745
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