Topic: Lose all your capital fast, with MatTheCat and his TA 101A! - page 55. (Read 85774 times)

I am becoming increasingly convinced of the bullish case with BTC here. There are however some things bothering me. Namely, the state of the swaps. I use Finex swap data for reference, as it is the only margin trading data that I have access to.

Current USD swaps (Margin Long Positions) on Finex = $31.5 Million
Current BTC swaps (Margin Short Positions) on Finex = 11.5K BTC

The USD swaps volume is just a fraction off record highs for Margin Longs on BFX. Record = $33 Million.
The BTC swaps volume is around 11.5K BTC. It's ATH was 35K on 27th April 2015, with BTC at $215. These shorts were gradually squeezed out of their positions. By the time Bitcoin topped out in July 2015, BTC swaps were at around 9K BTC.

Ideal conditions for a pump to commence, are low levels of USD swaps, having recovered somewhat from a recent bottom, and high levels of BTC swaps. What we have right now, is rather more the opposite situation, although who is to say, that the USD swaps on Finex can't increase to new ATHs up around $40 Million or even greater?




So it is with some caution, that I accept the bullish BTC case at the moment. As always, I can't buy in here, even if it is just a couple of bucks up the charts from my recent BTC long position, and I could technically view it as a continuation of the same trade. But that was then and this is now. This is a completely different trade, and only n00bs chase momentum. Here is the trade that I think I want to be in at this point in time:

I am thinking more in terms of long liquidiation beneath recent lows.....

In periods lacking a strong fundamental driver, when the market is essnetially in stasis, I would argue that 'they' push the market in the direction of the greatest liquidity. i.e. 'they' run stops, whether they be long stops or short stops.

If there isn't going to be a big push timed for the Bitcoin halving event, into which ultimately 'they' are hoping to draw in a bunch of the public who might have last been interested in Bitcoin in late 2013, then the biggest fattest liquidity pools are actually down below at the moment, not up above.

Possibly, Bitcoin is in need of a good margin long wash out, one which will get the bears all excited and have them piling into short positions. If Bitcoin can get back down to $430- $440, with around $18K of shorts on the books (Finex), then that would be super bullish. The market would be primed for a short squeezing pump which would drive Bitcoin over $475 resistance, which would then in turn force stronger hands out of their shorts.

I do read ZH mainly for its comedic value, but no, not for that reason. Despite people saying that TA doesn't 'apply' to Bitcoin because Bitcoin, I trade it just like anything else and know from experience that when you have a series of attempts on previous highs that you only need a few shorts for a squeeze to kick in on very low volume when they break.
There may not be much buying on stops if we do get to 470/500 but I think there maybe even less selling. Why would there be long liquidation in any volume just above previous highs?

that's the same as being out of bitcoin, i.e. long fiat/ short bitcoin.

You're in the game whether you like it or not. There is no such thing as 'real money', only assets that you either in or out of ...

You are assuming I have a Bitcoin position at the moment.

I don't.

hehehe, you wish ... you're either brave or a fool ... whichever it's cool, better than the hordes of disingenuous that infest this place.

ready for some whaling?

No thanks. I think I will stick to winning money. Your money, that is.

Hey Mat ... whacha up to?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3PIIrfnfieQ

... feel like losing some more money tonight?

If you are referring to that zerohedge article anticipating a massive short squeeze, what I would say to that is "where are the shorts"?

Currently around 13K BTC swaps on Finex. That may sound like a lot, but back in mid April, when Bitcoin was in $420s, there were about 18K BTC swaps on Finex. Those relatively weak shorts exiting their positions was the Short Squeeze, which propelled BTC up to $472 (Finex). Most of what are left, will be strong shorts likely from miners, that will not close their positions until liquidation points, as their positions won't be so much a trade, but a hedge to cover their overwhelmingly net long BTC positions.

I am not saying that because the majority of the weak shorts have already been taken out, that Bitcoin can't go shooting up, as if enough capital lands on the exchanges and starts buying Bitcoin, then this is exactly what it will do, but this Short Squeeze idea going around is fucking ridiculous and makes me have even less respect for zerohedge than I had already.

As they say, 'Buy the rumour, sell the news'.

Meanwhile, margin long positions in terms of USD swap rates are nearing ATH's, currently sitting around $31.5 Million.

If there are a bunch of weak margin positions just asking to be run out of town, then it seems to me that the margin longs are by far the easiest target here.

That was a good hold last week in the low 40's.
I added a little more, but will stop it out at break even if we get back there this week as that would be a lower short term high, not fitting the bull side for me, being so close to important resistance around 70. A bit weak handed, I don't mind buying breakouts, but not so much anticipating them.
If we do break out above 70 it will be interesting to see how far it runs on short covering. Might even get tempted to add a bit more on a 78/80 daily confirm for a run into the 500's, but that would be too logical. 

As long as I get a slice of action priced in USD, that is the only thing I could give a fuck about with regards to Bitcoin.

I know very well that whilst holders get the joy of witnessing their maxium profit taking capacity being hit, they also get the dismay of watching all those profits evaporate, and likely then some, since they will have invariably added to their position on any parabolic move up, fuelled by Kool Aid induced delusions of avarice.

Been there, done it all, learned my lesson on what approach I should have towards this piece of shit cornered and totally manipulated market.

You're playing the in and out game in a non-aggregate bull market.  You and I both know you're going to be out and then it's going to instantly go up $20 and force you back in at a loss.

Wrong, I have made up for the first couple of car crash trades which I posted in this thread, and then some....I am pretty sure that if you try, you will find 4 successful trades posted in this thread, which kind of makes it 4-2 to me, and then there are trades that I haven't posted in this thread. I haven't actually lost a Bitcoin trade since the #2 trade in this thread........being the superstitious type, going by the way my form took a nosedive as soon as I started this thread, I am wondering whether I want to really be posting actual trades at all, and instead, simply post here what way I think Bitcoin is going to go.

All this thing is meant to be for me, is a convenient journal of Bitcoin thoughts over time at any rate...I have a private log of every trade that I make, I don't need to go jinxing myself by posting actual trades that I am taking here I don't think.

Mat, you're like 1/3 in this thread.  What mythological reality are you living in.  You're talking about driving lambos over here and probably haven't even broken even since the thread was created.

And why are they wanting to shake out longs?

Perhaps cos they want these longs who were shaken out, to FOMO buy on the break out, and FOMO buy right into their selling walls up in the $460s (btw, someone on Finex opened a 2500 BTC short on run up to $466.......fany betting against whoever that was?)

But I suspect (or actually know very well), that there isn't a whole lot of point in trying to talk reason to you. You have your THC inspired and infused paradigms and I wish you all the best with them. Meanwhile, I shall keep nipping in the market, and then back out the market hopefully clutching a freshly acquired fistfull of dollars most of the time.

They weren't trying to "manipulate up", they filled up the entire sell side with spam to try and shake out longs.

No.

If I was a Bitcoin Cowboy, I would be the one moving the 2K Ask walls around. You know, the ones where you thought 'they' were trying to manipulate the price down, but I correctly identified that they were trying to manipulate the price up?

I wonder if that was the same Bitcoin Cowboy that took out a 3K BTC short position on Finex, on the Short Stop Farming Run up to $466?

These are the guys who run this market, and they run it for profit. Profit in USD that is.

It seems you fancy yourself as some type of Bitcoin cowboy.  An orphan of a bankrupt culture that thinks he's John Wayne.

Not huge amounts.

That trade was 16 BTC in total across two different exchanges.....

.....about $250 when all is said and done......but hey, better than a kick in the face.

certainly better than losing $250!

Edit: When I said 4 BTC wins, I meant 4 Bitcoin Trade wins. Not a 4 BTC profit.

Here