Losing a martingale is easier than you think - page 4.

edmundduke

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Quote from: maku on January 08, 2016, 01:55:39 PM

Quote from: edmundduke on January 08, 2016, 01:51:32 PM

Martingale can work, it really depends on luck and your bankroll. While what you say is true, the 8 loosing streak can come very fast but to make profit you need to survive longer than 8 losses. I believe there was a player on BitDice some time ago who played martingale on something like 48.5% or something like that. He played for months and won over 100 BTC in the end, i think close to 200.

We all know someone who played and won some insane money. The question is: is martingale really that helpful in reaching this goal? And my answer is: not really.
It is as you said yourself - if it depends on luck and bankroll then how much of it is real strategy left?

That can be say'd about the whole gambling scene, especially dice. Like every strategy it works till it no longer does and thats that, not more to say about it to be honest. Martingale also seems to be the favorite of many gamblers, be it regular martingale or a modified version (even reverse martingale)

maku

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Quote from: edmundduke on January 08, 2016, 01:51:32 PM

Martingale can work, it really depends on luck and your bankroll. While what you say is true, the 8 loosing streak can come very fast but to make profit you need to survive longer than 8 losses. I believe there was a player on BitDice some time ago who played martingale on something like 48.5% or something like that. He played for months and won over 100 BTC in the end, i think close to 200.

We all know someone who played and won some insane money. The question is: is martingale really that helpful in reaching this goal? And my answer is: not really.
It is as you said yourself - if it depends on luck and bankroll then how much of it is real strategy left?

edmundduke

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Quote from: erre on January 08, 2016, 01:13:23 PM

... indeed, with an house edge of 1% and betting 2x, you have 19.33% of chances to encounter an 8 losing streak in your first 100 bets. 1/5, not so hard...

The math behind this is really hard, I struggled a bit to find it out and I definitely can't understand it, but for people who can here's the link:

http://www.askamathematician.com/2010/07/q-whats-the-chance-of-getting-a-run-of-k-successes-in-n-bernoulli-trials-why-use-approximations-when-the-exact-answer-is-known/

And, for lazy people like me, here you can find a calculator:

http://maxgriffin.net/CalcStreaks.shtml

I'm just sharing, because I was asking thiis question myself for a time, and now I found the answer

Martingale can work, it really depends on luck and your bankroll. While what you say is true, the 8 loosing streak can come very fast but to make profit you need to survive longer than 8 losses. I believe there was a player on BitDice some time ago who played martingale on something like 48.5% or something like that. He played for months and won over 100 BTC in the end, i think close to 200.

maku

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I always said that: don't rely on martingale as full proof strategy to carry you every game.
It was proven long time ago and and since then many times , that martingale (in any variation, really) is only viable with infinite bank roll which is impossible to achieve.
You can have some luck with it in short session, but then you can be lucky without it too.

erre

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Quote from: pinoycash on January 08, 2016, 01:18:59 PM

I have done many approaches on that martingale strategy, We will need a large bankroll to survive a 8 losing streak and up. but in the end you will only win the base bet. Cool

No. You wins n time the base bet. This calculations tell you that if you bet 1 and you want to make 100 profit, with a 2550 bankroll (so you can afford 8 strike loss) you have 19.3% chances of getting busted before making your goal!

pinoycash

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I have done many approaches on that martingale strategy, We will need a large bankroll to survive a 8 losing streak and up. but in the end you will only win the base bet. Cool

erre

legendary

Activity: 1666

Merit: 1205

... indeed, with an house edge of 1% and betting 2x, you have 19.33% of chances to encounter an 8 losing streak in your first 100 bets. 1/5, not so hard...

The math behind this is really hard, I struggled a bit to find it out and I definitely can't understand it, but for people who can here's the link:

http://www.askamathematician.com/2010/07/q-whats-the-chance-of-getting-a-run-of-k-successes-in-n-bernoulli-trials-why-use-approximations-when-the-exact-answer-is-known/

And, for lazy people like me, here you can find a calculator:

http://maxgriffin.net/CalcStreaks.shtml

I'm just sharing, because I was asking thiis question myself for a time, and now I found the answer

Topic: Losing a martingale is easier than you think - page 4. (Read 2278 times)