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Topic: Lotteries and possibility vs. probability - page 43. (Read 6269 times)

sr. member
Activity: 1022
Merit: 363
Humans like to believe in supernatural ways of winning defying the math involved and thus their greed and the addictive buying of lottery tickets as seen with many people.

I think if we can keep the taxation issue aside and be completely selfish - then buying a lottery ticket in enough number to be able to get the winning ticket is a loss in total. We are interested on our own gains instead of taxation, so if that itself is a loss, why buy the ticket at all? a chance of less than 0.0001% is practically equal to no chance at all - this should go in straight in everyone's brains.

Having a belief that there's some rituals or any superstitious belief that can help them increase there chances of winning is not wrong. If that can make them feel at ease or even comfortable while betting then let it be. Since in every country we have different traditions so expect that there will be a crazy suggestions about such thing we can read somewhere.

Also even the chance is low there are people still bet just for excitement since its really fun if you have something to wait especially in draw time. But what we should not do is to exceed especially with our expectation upon buying some tickets and we should not do panic buying to think that we can hit the possible winning numbers if we buy a lot of tickets since its a bad decision to take.
Rituals and superstitions adding a dash of allure to gambling isn't uncommon. However, they provide solace rather than altering luck. Remember, gambling is dictated by randomness and odds, not mystical forces.

The adrenaline surge during a bet, the climax as results teeter, are undoubtedly emotional high points. Yet, the thrill should not be confused with an assurance of gains. Bear in mind, losses are more prevalent in gambling than wins.

Finally, the belief that owning more tickets elevates the likelihood of winning is misleading. This can prompt careless choices and a false sense of command. Each gamble is a distinct event; more tickets don't tilt the odds. Stay grounded and rational in your choices.

Such rituals just made just to make theirself feel relax on what bets they are trying to do and see some couple of people doing this and I don't see any problem with it as long as they are fine and also enjoying.

We all know that all is random so if they feel that they are just wasting their money for their bets without winning any single draw for long time then they should quit since there's nothing gonna happen if they continue and spend more because it will just make them lose huge without them knowing.

Also some think about owning tickets increase their chance to win but it doesn't give any sense at all especially if we talk about lottery since probabilities is so low and for that even if we take lots of ticket there's still a huge chance for us to lose similar to other who also place a small bets so we should lower down our expectation about this and just rely on 1 ticket luck since its enough on lotteries.
legendary
Activity: 3374
Merit: 1922
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I used to play lotteries in crypto casinos a few times, but only in the small ones because the total number of tickets would only go up to a couple of hundred, and their lottery is different to the bigger ones that require you to pick several numbers. I would rather watch someone spend money on these lotteries, but I might change my mind if they have other prizes because I already know i'm never going to hit all the numbers they draw every day but hitting a few of them is more manageable.
legendary
Activity: 3010
Merit: 1280
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Finally, the belief that owning more tickets elevates the likelihood of winning is misleading. This can prompt careless choices and a false sense of command. Each gamble is a distinct event; more tickets don't tilt the odds. Stay grounded and rational in your choices.
I agree with all you have said except the point I have quoted above. Mathematically/statistically speaking, the more tickets you have the more your chances of winning are. I'll give an example: let's assume there are only three tickets available and one of them is the winning one. You bought two and I bought the remaining one. Your chance of wining / odds is 2/3 or 66.66% while my odds of winning are 1/3 or 33.33%. Therefore, the more tickets you have the more you are likely to win.

I think it is not misleading, I agree that with the increasing number of tickets the chance of the person winning increases.  Since a number of tickets is directly proportional to the increase in the chance of winning.   It actually doubled since you have two tickets instead of one.  Though the problem is that in the lottery the chance is really low to make a difference.  Still even with low chance I still don't think the idea of more ticket more chances of winning is misleading.
legendary
Activity: 2702
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Finally, the belief that owning more tickets elevates the likelihood of winning is misleading. This can prompt careless choices and a false sense of command. Each gamble is a distinct event; more tickets don't tilt the odds. Stay grounded and rational in your choices.
I agree with all you have said except the point I have quoted above. Mathematically/statistically speaking, the more tickets you have the more your chances of winning are. I'll give an example: let's assume there are only three tickets available and one of them is the winning one. You bought two and I bought the remaining one. Your chance of wining / odds is 2/3 or 66.66% while my odds of winning are 1/3 or 33.33%. Therefore, the more tickets you have the more you are likely to win.
By buying more tickets you are improving your chances of winning.
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1100
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Humans like to believe in supernatural ways of winning defying the math involved and thus their greed and the addictive buying of lottery tickets as seen with many people.

I think if we can keep the taxation issue aside and be completely selfish - then buying a lottery ticket in enough number to be able to get the winning ticket is a loss in total. We are interested on our own gains instead of taxation, so if that itself is a loss, why buy the ticket at all? a chance of less than 0.0001% is practically equal to no chance at all - this should go in straight in everyone's brains.

Having a belief that there's some rituals or any superstitious belief that can help them increase there chances of winning is not wrong. If that can make them feel at ease or even comfortable while betting then let it be. Since in every country we have different traditions so expect that there will be a crazy suggestions about such thing we can read somewhere.

Also even the chance is low there are people still bet just for excitement since its really fun if you have something to wait especially in draw time. But what we should not do is to exceed especially with our expectation upon buying some tickets and we should not do panic buying to think that we can hit the possible winning numbers if we buy a lot of tickets since its a bad decision to take.
Rituals and superstitions adding a dash of allure to gambling isn't uncommon. However, they provide solace rather than altering luck. Remember, gambling is dictated by randomness and odds, not mystical forces.

The adrenaline surge during a bet, the climax as results teeter, are undoubtedly emotional high points. Yet, the thrill should not be confused with an assurance of gains. Bear in mind, losses are more prevalent in gambling than wins.

Finally, the belief that owning more tickets elevates the likelihood of winning is misleading. This can prompt careless choices and a false sense of command. Each gamble is a distinct event; more tickets don't tilt the odds. Stay grounded and rational in your choices.
sr. member
Activity: 1092
Merit: 342
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Humans like to believe in supernatural ways of winning defying the math involved and thus their greed and the addictive buying of lottery tickets as seen with many people.

I think if we can keep the taxation issue aside and be completely selfish - then buying a lottery ticket in enough number to be able to get the winning ticket is a loss in total. We are interested on our own gains instead of taxation, so if that itself is a loss, why buy the ticket at all? a chance of less than 0.0001% is practically equal to no chance at all - this should go in straight in everyone's brains.

Having a belief that there's some rituals or any superstitious belief that can help them increase there chances of winning is not wrong. If that can make them feel at ease or even comfortable while betting then let it be. Since in every country we have different traditions so expect that there will be a crazy suggestions about such thing we can read somewhere.

Also even the chance is low there are people still bet just for excitement since its really fun if you have something to wait especially in draw time. But what we should not do is to exceed especially with our expectation upon buying some tickets and we should not do panic buying to think that we can hit the possible winning numbers if we buy a lot of tickets since its a bad decision to take.

I apply something very relaxed, when I buy a ticket for a lottery or a raffle, at first when I'm buying it I get excited, but then when I think that there are so many chances of losing that it doesn't make sense to get your hopes up, because if you lose we will feel more bad, that is why I apply the most reliable, which is to be calm, and not think about that lottery or that loggery anymore, because anxiety occurs and that feeling is not good, it can also produce stress and the brain Human is very emphatic, it can cause so much emotion that it can make it hard to sleep or do any activity, it is better to have a good mental health
hero member
Activity: 1120
Merit: 554
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LOL! this is great Cheesy I simulated 25 years and lost 5.000€.

Not that I'll stop playing lottery because of that, but that tool can help a lot to manage expectations, since many people has trouble with abstract numbers, but anyone understands the simulation when displayed.
It is funny but result from your example simulation explains why lottery companies get rich easily. Only their customers get poorer but they keep up buying lottery tickets because they have belief that they will become billionaire if they win a lottery someday.

Won prize is actually awarded to winner but we must know even paying huge award, lottery companies are still rich with income from many other lottery tickets which end with no reward for their customers

Its weird to see that there’s a private company behind lottery since the lottery system here in my country is only controlled by the government and the profit is being used for charity works such as donations on hospital and people with disabilities. Its a gambling for cause here so people doesn’t bother much on where the profit goes.

Customers has a choice to play or not. I think we shouldn’t blame companies for having this kimd of advantage for their business because people choose to bet despite the odds is.
sr. member
Activity: 1764
Merit: 260
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I'm trying to remember... is it a city or country in Europe where almost all of the inhabitants, except one person, won the jackpot lottery? I can't remember the specific country, but I remember watching a video about it.

This "game" relies heavily on extreme luck, and in the end, the real winner is the company running the lottery. People participate in this type of game hoping to change their fortune, but the odds are incredibly low. If you happen to be extremely lucky, you might be chosen as a winner too. However, the chances are slim.

Personally, I made the decision long ago not to participate in national jackpot lotteries, and I still hold that stance.
legendary
Activity: 3276
Merit: 3537
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Btw, have you seen this lottery simulator?

https://www.cuandomevaatocar.com/
...

thanks for share. this is a great resource to be used with people that "believe to beat the house in lotteries".

in Italy there is a proverb that says "the lottery is the tax of stupid".
I personally never play and from memory I don't think I've ever played more than 1 euro.
achieve a win is practically impossible, and each win (even minor) is promoted on all mainstream channels, but all money wasted on these games are of course forgotten and never mentioned....
hero member
Activity: 2366
Merit: 838
LOL! this is great Cheesy I simulated 25 years and lost 5.000€.

Not that I'll stop playing lottery because of that, but that tool can help a lot to manage expectations, since many people has trouble with abstract numbers, but anyone understands the simulation when displayed.
It is funny but result from your example simulation explains why lottery companies get rich easily. Only their customers get poorer but they keep up buying lottery tickets because they have belief that they will become billionaire if they win a lottery someday.

Won prize is actually awarded to winner but we must know even paying huge award, lottery companies are still rich with income from many other lottery tickets which end with no reward for their customers
hero member
Activity: 1638
Merit: 576
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
Humans like to believe in supernatural ways of winning defying the math involved and thus their greed and the addictive buying of lottery tickets as seen with many people.

Humans believe in lucky even when it doesn't exist. I don't think that there is anything that has happened purely by luck.
So many people buying lottery tickets doesn't know that there are some arithmetic and algorithm that has been programmed greatly against them.
The idea has been, if Mr Tom can win, I can also win.
If there is only 2 winners in every million, I will be one of those two persons.
We are most times insensitive of these things as we approach everything from the front end and forgetting that the backend controls the front end.
copper member
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1280
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Hey! thanks for asking, everybody is throwing his own opinion here (as expected, because I made a direct question in the OP) but nobody asked for the source of info that led to this topic, and I think that everybody should read about it before making his own conclusions.
I'm really interested in it what could make you think about it? Upon reading it it's based on Daniel Kahneman's book, Thinking Fast and Slow. I have read it and I do remember some key points that it has.

I like how the author applied the risk effect and how it makes us think about the risk we are facing. It's definitely about framing it as well as how it is presented to us and how we are going to approach a certain "possibility" not knowing the real probability.

It's one of the reasons definitely why Insurance and lotteries exist lol.
legendary
Activity: 3052
Merit: 1168
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
Btw, have you seen this lottery simulator?

https://www.cuandomevaatocar.com/

You can run simulations with various types of lotteries and set it to high speed. So, for example, you can choose the Euromillions, which you buy twice a week, you hit it and it will give you the results in seconds, which would take weeks to happen. As you can see, what happens is that when someone wins something, which is normally a refund or a small prize in the first stages, they have already spent more on the lottery than what they win.

Regarding the Christmas lottery, there is, apart from tradition, one more factor, that it is very typical in workplaces, associations and other groups to buy one and the same number for everybody or shares. Many people, even if they don't like the lottery, end up buying the Christmas lottery at work because they don't want to be the only one in the office who looks like an asshole if the lottery comes up and they are the only one who hasn't bought the number. That's FOMO applied to this.
This should be mandatory check for people who have a lottery addiction. I tried this with powerball and it's a rude awakening when you realize that no matter how many lifetimes you play you most likely have negative saldo.

This also made me put some perspective to the fact that EVERYONE playing rest of their lives will most likely face the same result. Oddly that gives me the slight sense of how big numbers we are talking about. And even when i understand that i won't be winning any lotteries in my lifetime, it's still fun to picture what i would do with the lottery money Tongue And that makes me want to buy the ticket.
sr. member
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Merit: 374
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I have recently read an interesting essay on this topic, but it was already explained it to me a few years ago.

The thesis would consist that, although the probability of winning classical lotteries is near zero (typically between 0.0000007% in the case of Euromillions and 0.000003% in the case of national lotteries), people is willing to pay an excessive overprice because they are buying the right to dream about the possibility of winning.

Although there are extreme cases that get addicted to lotteries, this is quite uncommon if I'm not wrong, because, if you are not paying for the probability but for the possibility, a bet of 1 USD is enough to buy said possibility.

On the other hand, national lotteries are known to be "taxes on ignorance of mathematics", but if these revenues financed public expenses that revert to the common good: would you agree to pay systematically 1 USD more in your annual taxes as something that ensures the right to dream of a dear life of every taxpayer?



Probability deals with the calculable outcome of one scenario happening over another. And that uncertainty is where the excitement comes from. The happening or the experience of winning is one of those possibilities. And the truth is, many people are more than willing to pay for that possibility of one big win in the lottery even if the outcome is not in their favor with a probability of 0.000003%.

People are willing to pay for that possibility. Because they know that even with less than a percent, it is still possible for them to win. So let those who want to be a participant of the lottery and not do the systematically 1 USD of annual taxes.
legendary
Activity: 1932
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LOL! this is great Cheesy I simulated 25 years and lost 5.000€.

Not that I'll stop playing lottery because of that, but that tool can help a lot to manage expectations, since many people has trouble with abstract numbers, but anyone understands the simulation when displayed.

Regarding the Christmas lottery, there is, apart from tradition, one more factor, that it is very typical in workplaces, associations and other groups to buy one and the same number for everybody or shares. Many people, even if they don't like the lottery, end up buying the Christmas lottery at work because they don't want to be the only one in the office who looks like an asshole if the lottery comes up and they are the only one who hasn't bought the number. That's FOMO applied to this.

Yes, but... it's a trap! Cheesy

I personally try to resist that feeling, but I have to confess that I'm not always capable Embarrassed

But, when I do, I don't feel worse. I assume that December 22 will be a day just like any other and that's all.



I have recently read an interesting essay on this topic, but it was already explained it to me a few years ago.
Can you point out to what essay that could be OP?


-snip-

Hey! thanks for asking, everybody is throwing his own opinion here (as expected, because I made a direct question in the OP) but nobody asked for the source of info that led to this topic, and I think that everybody should read about it before making his own conclusions.

You can read this article in Medium which is a great summary (much better than my post) and, if you are still curious after reading it and want to go deeper into the subject, the book Thinking, Fast and Slow.
sr. member
Activity: 1022
Merit: 363
Humans like to believe in supernatural ways of winning defying the math involved and thus their greed and the addictive buying of lottery tickets as seen with many people.

I think if we can keep the taxation issue aside and be completely selfish - then buying a lottery ticket in enough number to be able to get the winning ticket is a loss in total. We are interested on our own gains instead of taxation, so if that itself is a loss, why buy the ticket at all? a chance of less than 0.0001% is practically equal to no chance at all - this should go in straight in everyone's brains.

Having a belief that there's some rituals or any superstitious belief that can help them increase there chances of winning is not wrong. If that can make them feel at ease or even comfortable while betting then let it be. Since in every country we have different traditions so expect that there will be a crazy suggestions about such thing we can read somewhere.

Also even the chance is low there are people still bet just for excitement since its really fun if you have something to wait especially in draw time. But what we should not do is to exceed especially with our expectation upon buying some tickets and we should not do panic buying to think that we can hit the possible winning numbers if we buy a lot of tickets since its a bad decision to take.
copper member
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1280
https://linktr.ee/crwthopia
I have recently read an interesting essay on this topic, but it was already explained it to me a few years ago.
Can you point out to what essay that could be OP?



I know that there are a lot of people who are hoping to win the lottery and they are always buying tickets for their satisfaction. I personally know a friend whose mom is an addict and you could see that in the lottery sheet that you have. It's really a lot and I'm not sure why she is keeping it. It's basically trash at that point.

What she doesn't realize is that she is just wasting money on that hope but it's her choice.
legendary
Activity: 2898
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So anyway, I applied as a merit source :)
Humans like to believe in supernatural ways of winning defying the math involved and thus their greed and the addictive buying of lottery tickets as seen with many people.

I think if we can keep the taxation issue aside and be completely selfish - then buying a lottery ticket in enough number to be able to get the winning ticket is a loss in total. We are interested on our own gains instead of taxation, so if that itself is a loss, why buy the ticket at all? a chance of less than 0.0001% is practically equal to no chance at all - this should go in straight in everyone's brains.
sr. member
Activity: 938
Merit: 303
There's high rate of applying for lottery, low rate of winning possibilities and the probability of getting certainty remain unsure because thise applying aren't familiar with wether of the outcome to be positive or not, aleo due to these, there have been low performance and anticipation for lottery as many equally loose interest despite it time consuming aside the fact that the winning chance is low for lottery.

People get carried away with lotteries because they only have to pay a small amount in order to get participated. I don't think many people will even care about the lottery result. They will just put in the money in the lottery and hope they can win a big amount and change their fortune.
In case of no win, they will just move on without complaining, because people who participate in lotteries already know the probability of winning is very low.
Since the amount to buy a single ticket is low, it's not a big deal for many players. They can move on easily without having regrets on why they spend it to buy ticket because the jackpot prize is quite huge, it's worth it if ever. Although the chance is very slim and almost impossible, this doesn't stop the people to participate.

Moreover you don't have to possess a certain skill, anyone can join and you can buy as many tickets as you want to increase your chance though it's not really proven. Because even you only have one ticket but got lucky then it's really meant for you.



     -  Here in our country, million populations are Lotto bettors, and most of them have only one goal and that is to win and become a millionaire, almost most of them rely on luck, the others have been betting on the lotto for years and decades but rarely win the lottery.

If we sum up the total, the payment given is a lot at the amount of 0.35$ per ticket. So the bettor will not think that he has to use the skills lottery, of course there is no such thing, instead he even prays that they will win.
hero member
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Lotteries are overhyped and exaggerated if you ask me. It is true that you need to invest very little in order to try and change your life drastically, but those little amounts add up to something big if you get addicted to them.

It's way better to invest in betting accumulators instead where the odds are similar, but skill actually helps instead of completely relying on luck. Some sites offer bonuses too on these accas making them far more appealing.

I advise investing in lotteries only now and then due to the entertainment factor primarily.
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