Lotteries and possibility vs. probability - page 46.

AmoreJaz

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Quote from: Johnyz on June 23, 2023, 04:05:25 PM

Government owned lottery have a lot of purpose to operate and in my country, they are a big help to many.
Many are hoping to win on lottery and some are spending a lot just to increase their probability to win unfortunately they are missing the numbers here as they are more focus to the reward. The probability is very low if you are just a single bettor, so better not to expect that much especially if you are not lucky into this kind of betting.

that is true, government owned lotteries, they are serving a lot of people paying for their medical expenses and other charitable acts. so i have nothing against with them. people who are placing their bets know the risks. so it is up to them if they will use their hard-earned money on betting or not. but we all know the chance of winning here is like punching in the air. so are you willing to take the risk?

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Quote from: Porfirii on June 23, 2023, 11:22:41 AM

The thesis would consist that, although the probability of winning classical lotteries is near zero (typically between 0.0000007% in the case of Euromillions and 0.000003% in the case of national lotteries), people is willing to pay an excessive overprice because they are buying the right to dream about the possibility of winning.

There are people winning the lotteries so why not give it a shot you could be the next winner in the next draw, for third-world countries like ours, winning a lottery is a lifetime dream of everyone here, they don't care about probabilities, you cannot talk them out of lottery because of probabilities of winning the lottery they will not accept the logic even if they know its almost impossible to win they will keep on buying hoping to be the next guy to be handled out a check worth millions.

Johnyz

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Government owned lottery have a lot of purpose to operate and in my country, they are a big help to many.
Many are hoping to win on lottery and some are spending a lot just to increase their probability to win unfortunately they are missing the numbers here as they are more focus to the reward. The probability is very low if you are just a single bettor, so better not to expect that much especially if you are not lucky into this kind of betting.

Slow death

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most people play the lottery hoping they will be very lucky to win the maximum prize, they know very well that this will be a very difficult task but even so they keep playing, in the beginning they take little money and buy few tickets, then they start looking at the tv that a lot of random people are winning the top prize and for that reason these people start to intensify a big campaign to buy a lot of tickets and with that they start to spend a lot of money and it doesn't take long before they become addicted to gambling

and to make matters worse, when these people become addicted to gambling, they hardly show the signs that they are addicted to gambling, I already had the opportunity to live with people who became addicted to the lottery, I started by observing the signs when they didn't managed to go a whole day without taking out money to buy lottery tickets, I kept wondering if they could stop buying lottery tickets when they wanted to. relatives had to interfere and stop giving them money, that's the only way people stopped buying lottery tickets. lottery games are the kind of games that make people addicted easily

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Quote from: Porfirii on June 23, 2023, 11:22:41 AM

I have recently read an interesting essay on this topic, but it was already explained it to me a few years ago.

The thesis would consist that, although the probability of winning classical lotteries is near zero (typically between 0.0000007% in the case of Euromillions and 0.000003% in the case of national lotteries), people is willing to pay an excessive overprice because they are buying the right to dream about the possibility of winning.

Although there are extreme cases that get addicted to lotteries, this is quite uncommon if I'm not wrong, because, if you are not paying for the probability but for the possibility, a bet of 1 USD is enough to buy said possibility.

On the other hand, national lotteries are known to be "taxes on ignorance of mathematics", but if these revenues financed public expenses that revert to the common good: would you agree to pay systematically 1 USD more in your annual taxes as something that ensures the right to dream of a dear life of every taxpayer?

This is a subtle game on the psyche of people. It turns out that for this one dollar we have the right to think that we have secured the opportunity to fulfill all our dreams. That is, if you understand: this possibility is present or absent, then it is. but. Not really. This chance is absolutely negligible, it is very small, and I believe that there is no need to litter your thoughts with the fact that there is a chance of winning. Its not. And they are right to say that lotteries are a tax on ignorance of mathematics and probability theory. Because it is better not to spend this dollar and understand that you can get rich with efforts, and the dream about win in the lottery will not be fulfilled.

BitcoinPanther

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I never like lotteries because it often exploits poor people. They enticed them to buy because of the huge jackpot which we don't know when they will allow people to win. I often think most of the lottery results are manipulated. They are implanting the life changing winning idea which in truth is almost impossible to happen. Although these lotteries are helping charities, it also push people who are hooked to it in deeper level of poverty since many who buy the idea of possible life changing result often spend almost all their money in buying the tickets leaving almost nothing for their daily needs.

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The probability of winning a lottery is very slim but sometimes we might be calculating the tendency to win thinking that it could be easy for us but mere looking at it, it is very difficult for us if we look at it from a general angle. It isnjuts like throwing a dice and calculating the tendency for us to have number 6 and a result. We can throw the dice and it can take us like 20 to 60 throw for us to have the number 6.
Those that play lottery and keep winning are just being lucky.

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Quote from: Coin_trader on June 23, 2023, 01:51:59 PM

Quote from: coolcoinz on June 23, 2023, 01:20:54 PM

Lotteries are popular because people can't count.

It's easy for us to calculate probability when something can happen 30% of a time or 10% of a time, our brain gets that, but when you go below 0.1% it really doesn't matter. Human brain sees it as very very low possibility, but existent. Then you can decrease it to 0.0001% and the person will still say that the possibility is very low, but it's there. So the lottery creators make sure you have a very very low chance, like 1 to a few million, and tell you that the entry fee is extremely low, like $1 and you go for it because your brain tells you "what if?"

This is true because on most cases, People is not looking on the probability of winning but rather on the potential prize size they think that they just betting small amount for a chance to win a money that will change their life. I never puchased a national lottery ticket because It’s hopeless for me to think that I will win a lottery with low win rate but I don’t blame other people for pursuing lottery bets since most of the lottery winners are common person that is a dreamer.

For me, Lottery is popular not because people can’t count since lotteries winning percentage is very popular as it is always being use as fun fact as the chance of being hit by a lightning twice is high probability than winning a lottery. Lottery is popular because of the huge jackpot prize in an exchange for a small bet same as slot games.

And that means, small time players can afford to buy lottery ticket, this is why a lot are buying such dream.
Many people are engage on this type of game because they have such belief that one day they may hit that jackpot.
So they keep on placing their bets, even it will cost a lil bit from their daily expenses, they will allocate such small fund.
And you will be surprised, a lot of them have numbers that they are taking care of for years, and use those to place bet.
There's no wrong about such belief, so long you are not using your money to buy your food, and it is your choice anyway.

darkangel11

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I don't like lotteries, but I understand why people play and the companies that run these games also know why they do it, which is why they will never show you the probability. Their ads and posters will say: win a million dollars with just 1 dollar, buy yourself a future with a dollar! These poor people see it and think they won't buy a can of soda and instead get a lottery ticket and it will maybe change their life. The problem is even winners aren't happy with that kind of money because if you can't calculate probability, you will not be able to calculate taxes, fees, project your spending and manage investments, even if they give you a million.

Cryptomultiplier

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For real, I have witnessed friends of my family and even family members win lotteries to live and work overseas. I don't see how badly thier lives has been lately except way better than the way it was when they left.

What just pains me is the fact that the lottery system is not as open as it used to be in those times.
Money was paid for each time they tried, and yes, it was more than twice they tried.

Lotteries are more or less a probable outcome of a likely event that would happen after perhaps after several attempts.

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Quote from: Porfirii on June 23, 2023, 11:22:41 AM

I have recently read an interesting essay on this topic, but it was already explained it to me a few years ago.

The thesis would consist that, although the probability of winning classical lotteries is near zero (typically between 0.0000007% in the case of Euromillions and 0.000003% in the case of national lotteries), people is willing to pay an excessive overprice because they are buying the right to dream about the possibility of winning.

Although there are extreme cases that get addicted to lotteries, this is quite uncommon if I'm not wrong, because, if you are not paying for the probability but for the possibility, a bet of 1 USD is enough to buy said possibility.

On the other hand, national lotteries are known to be "taxes on ignorance of mathematics", but if these revenues financed public expenses that revert to the common good: would you agree to pay systematically 1 USD more in your annual taxes as something that ensures the right to dream of a dear life of every taxpayer?

You got it all wrong bud. It's not just because they wanted to live the dream of becoming rich that they spend money that when you compound reach stupendous amounts that leads them to buy tickets and play the lottery, cause for all I know a ticket doesn't cost that much in the first place. It's all about the lack of financial discipline. For one, lotteries are poverty bait. You'd see more lottery kiosks and Lotto outlets near poverty-stricken areas compared to more developed ones, because people in there aren't that aware of the fact that these establishments are not made to offer them a chance at a great life but are there to literally bait them out of their last dollar.

It's also all about their awareness. Some are aware of how small the odds of winning are but they're willing to put it on the line cause in their eyes, 2 dollars ain't that much, or "the prospect of a million dollars outshines the thousands of dollars they will spend in the lottery over their lifetime." Either way, you pay your taxes or not, this type of legalized exploitation will persist because there's people who submit to it. If proper financial education is taught amongst these people these tactics wouldn't be as ubiquitous and effective as it is right now.

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Quote from: Porfirii on June 23, 2023, 11:22:41 AM

I have recently read an interesting essay on this topic, but it was already explained it to me a few years ago.

The thesis would consist that, although the probability of winning classical lotteries is near zero (typically between 0.0000007% in the case of Euromillions and 0.000003% in the case of national lotteries), people is willing to pay an excessive overprice because they are buying the right to dream about the possibility of winning.

Although there are extreme cases that get addicted to lotteries, this is quite uncommon if I'm not wrong, because, if you are not paying for the probability but for the possibility, a bet of 1 USD is enough to buy said possibility.

On the other hand, national lotteries are known to be "taxes on ignorance of mathematics", but if these revenues financed public expenses that revert to the common good: would you agree to pay systematically 1 USD more in your annual taxes as something that ensures the right to dream of a dear life of every taxpayer?

Majority would really be thinking about the possibility and not on the probability because once a certain bettor would really be able to realize those numbers then for sure it would really be losing up their interest

knowing on how small it is or simply it is really that close to impossible.For spending more that $1 on lottery tickets then we are aware about slim chance on hitting those combinations and this is why there are people who do heavily buying tickets because they do have in mind that the more combinations the more chances of hitting but of course its not something that would increase it out to 1% unless if you do
buy tons which it isnt really that recommendable.

There are people who do just having that single ticket but did win a lottery but this is something a one in a lifetime kind of opportunity which does simply needs up that extreme luck
on which we know that lottery do really need it out.

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Quote from: Porfirii on June 23, 2023, 11:22:41 AM

I have recently read an interesting essay on this topic, but it was already explained it to me a few years ago.

The thesis would consist that, although the probability of winning classical lotteries is near zero (typically between 0.0000007% in the case of Euromillions and 0.000003% in the case of national lotteries), people is willing to pay an excessive overprice because they are buying the right to dream about the possibility of winning.

Although there are extreme cases that get addicted to lotteries, this is quite uncommon if I'm not wrong, because, if you are not paying for the probability but for the possibility, a bet of 1 USD is enough to buy said possibility.

On the other hand, national lotteries are known to be "taxes on ignorance of mathematics", but if these revenues financed public expenses that revert to the common good: would you agree to pay systematically 1 USD more in your annual taxes as something that ensures the right to dream of a dear life of every taxpayer?

My national lottery where I live now is 15 out of 90 and they charge for a single ticket from 1 USD to 2.5 USD depending on the price and based on the price ticket they decide the outcome of the major prize.It is exactly that,this is taxing ignorance in mathematics or people who are dreamers,I sometimes buy one to ten tickets max as I love to see the draw in TV every Sunday,who knows sometimes the prize is well over the price of a new good living apartment so why not spend from 1 to 25 dollars a week for chasing a dream,I gladly become an ignorant in mathematics as long as hopes keep my dream up,I have never won anything because of the low percentage but 25 dollars a week is money I can afford to lose so no worries for me.

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Quote from: Porfirii on June 23, 2023, 11:22:41 AM

The thesis would consist that, although the probability of winning classical lotteries is near zero (typically between 0.0000007% in the case of Euromillions and 0.000003% in the case of national lotteries), people is willing to pay an excessive overprice because they are buying the right to dream about the possibility of winning.

Participation in the lottery is extremely easy because they will charge you a very little amount for participation. And the prizes for the lottery are usually mouth watering and very big.

That is the main reason why we see a lot of participation in the lotteries although most of the participants know that winning is extremely unlikely in the lottery.

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People who bet on lottery don't really have anything other than their pure superstition or instinct or we simply call it as luck and as we all know if someone win that it's going to be a life changing amount for them even half of the amount nearly cut for taxes in most parts of the world.

Lottery bettors sre so addictive and since the bet amount is tiny it won't cause them financial danger unless they get psyched and do something to outsmart the system.

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Quote from: coolcoinz on June 23, 2023, 01:20:54 PM

Lotteries are popular because people can't count.

It's easy for us to calculate probability when something can happen 30% of a time or 10% of a time, our brain gets that, but when you go below 0.1% it really doesn't matter. Human brain sees it as very very low possibility, but existent. Then you can decrease it to 0.0001% and the person will still say that the possibility is very low, but it's there. So the lottery creators make sure you have a very very low chance, like 1 to a few million, and tell you that the entry fee is extremely low, like $1 and you go for it because your brain tells you "what if?"

This is true because on most cases, People is not looking on the probability of winning but rather on the potential prize size they think that they just betting small amount for a chance to win a money that will change their life. I never puchased a national lottery ticket because It’s hopeless for me to think that I will win a lottery with low win rate but I don’t blame other people for pursuing lottery bets since most of the lottery winners are common person that is a dreamer.

For me, Lottery is popular not because people can’t count since lotteries winning percentage is very popular as it is always being use as fun fact as the chance of being hit by a lightning twice is high probability than winning a lottery. Lottery is popular because of the huge jackpot prize in an exchange for a small bet same as slot games.

coolcoinz

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Lotteries are popular because people can't count.

It's easy for us to calculate probability when something can happen 30% of a time or 10% of a time, our brain gets that, but when you go below 0.1% it really doesn't matter. Human brain sees it as very very low possibility, but existent. Then you can decrease it to 0.0001% and the person will still say that the possibility is very low, but it's there. So the lottery creators make sure you have a very very low chance, like 1 to a few million, and tell you that the entry fee is extremely low, like $1 and you go for it because your brain tells you "what if?"

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Quote from: Porfirii on June 23, 2023, 11:22:41 AM

On the other hand, national lotteries are known to be "taxes on ignorance of mathematics", but if these revenues financed public expenses that revert to the common good: would you agree to pay systematically 1 USD more in your annual taxes as something that ensures the right to dream of a dear life of every taxpayer?

Government is not always accountable to some expenses that taxes payers accrue to it. Of what purpose is an additional IGR for most government where instead of public expenditure for capital projects, some end up on recurrent expenditure, payment of salaries and personal pockets while facilities that majority will benefit are left in abeyance.

National lotteries in the past I heard benefited some but I don't know of the time will live now, is more like wishful thinking, dreams of possibilities and winning potential in your slip but never in your account.

bittraffic

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When you buy, you always think of the possibility that when you wake up tomorrow you'll see your number on the papers. My old pa does it all the time to this day.

Nothing beats HOPE. It's the only thing that keeps the poor old 65-year-old man from buying tickets in hopes that he might save all the rest of his family from the hell hole we've been in all our lives. We wouldn't want to kill his dream of winning and it's almost like a habit of the old man to buy tickets, even allocate a few funds for it.

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Quote from: Porfirii on June 23, 2023, 11:22:41 AM

I have recently read an interesting essay on this topic, but it was already explained it to me a few years ago.

The thesis would consist that, although the probability of winning classical lotteries is near zero (typically between 0.0000007% in the case of Euromillions and 0.000003% in the case of national lotteries), people is willing to pay an excessive overprice because they are buying the right to dream about the possibility of winning.

Although there are extreme cases that get addicted to lotteries, this is quite uncommon if I'm not wrong, because, if you are not paying for the probability but for the possibility, a bet of 1 USD is enough to buy said possibility.

On the other hand, national lotteries are known to be "taxes on ignorance of mathematics", but if these revenues financed public expenses that revert to the common good: would you agree to pay systematically 1 USD more in your annual taxes as something that ensures the right to dream of a dear life of every taxpayer?

An interesting hypothesis that the lottery gives the right to dream about the possibility of winning. There is something really worthwhile about this. In this idea. The illusion that one single (or subsequent. every time it seems so) bet will allow the player to radically change his life without any effort. I would call it the dream of an idiot and a lazy person, which organizers of lotteries use.

National lotteries (like any other) are not a tax on "ignorance of mathematics", but a "tax for fools" (google the history of the origin of lotteries) - a way to collect additional taxes to replenish the treasury.

Never in my life would I agree to pay even such a small sum as $1 for the right to dream of the dear life of every taxpayer, as you put it. I would rather invest this amount in bitcoin - it would be more useful.

Topic: Lotteries and possibility vs. probability - page 46. (Read 6269 times)