I don't know if this is clear to anyone else but me, but when someone writes:
"It's cheat proof. If you can think of a way I can pay myself without everyone noticing I'll give you all the BTC I own!! "
I take it to clearly mean: "I have a lot of faith in my system" and nothing more. He's communicating an idea, not making a formal bet. The language is too informal for to be taken seriously that way (note the multiple !). All language should be taken in the spirit of its meaning, otherwise all communication would be constantly bogged down with mindless details and we'd all talk like lawyers.
I believe the term for this is "pedantic".
Regards
Topic: Lottery guy bets entire BTC fortune and ... loses? :) - page 4. (Read 6628 times)
Wow, 0-3.
I have nothing to pay. I didn't bet anything.
But I am still awaiting proof that he didn't buy the majority of the tickets in the June 1 lottery. Until you can prove that to me, I contend that he could have. And since he could have, that proves that I won.
Thank you, that was my point!!
Edit:
Furthermore, in that hypothetical scenario, he CHEATED the users out of the 1 BTC, because they had NO chance of winning. zero. zip. nada. 130/131 they lose. 1/131 they get no payout because he runs off with the money. That is a way to cheat. and that is proof that I won the bet.
I have nothing to pay. I didn't bet anything.
But I am still awaiting proof that he didn't buy the majority of the tickets in the June 1 lottery. Until you can prove that to me, I contend that he could have. And since he could have, that proves that I won.
jereflix did not offer a way bitlotto can cheat and thus can't claim the bet.
However, he did implicitly offer a way bitlotto can inflate his apparent trust regarding stealing. Consider again this scenario:
However, he did implicitly offer a way bitlotto can inflate his apparent trust regarding stealing. Consider again this scenario:
(Really, I believe that you are honest, but for all I know, in the June 1 lottery, you had just 1 Bitcoin worth of real entrants, and ~130 fake entrants that you created. You won (surprise), and the jackpot looks attractive for the next round of suckers.)
Disregarding fees, bitlotto puts 130 of his own BTC for a chance of 130/131 to get back 131 BTC and 1/131 chance to lose it all (just like anyone else could). However, it could be that his strategy was really as follows: If he wins, pay out to the winning address normally; if he loses, take the money and run. This way he can make himself appear worthy to be trusted with 131 BTC when he actually is not.Thank you, that was my point!!
Edit:
Furthermore, in that hypothetical scenario, he CHEATED the users out of the 1 BTC, because they had NO chance of winning. zero. zip. nada. 130/131 they lose. 1/131 they get no payout because he runs off with the money. That is a way to cheat. and that is proof that I won the bet.
jereflix did not offer a way bitlotto can cheat and thus can't claim the bet.
However, he did implicitly offer a way bitlotto can inflate his apparent trust regarding stealing. Consider again this scenario:
However, he did implicitly offer a way bitlotto can inflate his apparent trust regarding stealing. Consider again this scenario:
(Really, I believe that you are honest, but for all I know, in the June 1 lottery, you had just 1 Bitcoin worth of real entrants, and ~130 fake entrants that you created. You won (surprise), and the jackpot looks attractive for the next round of suckers.)
Disregarding fees, bitlotto puts 130 of his own BTC for a chance of 130/131 to get back 131 BTC and 1/131 chance to lose it all (just like anyone else could). However, it could be that his strategy was really as follows: If he wins, pay out to the winning address normally; if he loses, take the money and run. This way he can make himself appear worthy to be trusted with 131 BTC when he actually is not. 
bitlotto wins, jer pay up.
As for escrows why should bitlotto be any less reliable than any other escrow provider?
I suggested a TRUSTED escrow as a way to avoid the possibility of the lottery site cheating. The reason this is important is because of exactly the scenario I posed. The lottery site could have a very real stake in the game. The whole lottery could be a scam. By working with a trusted escrow, it would force a crooked lottery site who wants to take a heavy stake in the lottery to have to really put up the money. It reduces the possibility that the scam lottery site will run off with all the money, in the unlikely event that he loses.The solution is simple. If you don't trust bitlotto for whatever reason, don't play his lottery!
No, you are misunderstanding the problem. The problem is, how do you set up a "provably honest" lottery? The solution to that is to do a lot of the things that bitlotto did, plus add a trusted escrow. And continue to ask people to shoot holes in the method of the lottery. Actually I trust bitlotto, and I'm enjoying a spirited debate here. But that doesn't mean that I didn't win the bet!
I will try to implement this hash thing on my small lottery site, too. I hope I will find some time at the weekend to set up the described method.
anyway I would like to say that my lottery uses standard rand(0,100) and I don't cheat. Maybe a look at the win loss list can prove that a little bit. -> http://bitcoin.dyndns.info/bt/
As you see I use instant payout, so all winners get their profit directly.
But I agree with you, I need that kind of system, too.
Kind regards!
anyway I would like to say that my lottery uses standard rand(0,100) and I don't cheat. Maybe a look at the win loss list can prove that a little bit. -> http://bitcoin.dyndns.info/bt/
As you see I use instant payout, so all winners get their profit directly.
But I agree with you, I need that kind of system, too.
Kind regards!
As an independent observer (who will probably regret posting in this thread):
jerfelix you did not win any bet. bitlotto was asking if there was a way he could undetectably cheat at the lottery. You did not provide a solution to this.
Thanks for an independent opinion.jerfelix you did not win any bet. bitlotto was asking if there was a way he could undetectably cheat at the lottery. You did not provide a solution to this.
I believe that he could have undetectably cheated on the June 1 lotto, simply by the method that I described. He could have stacked the odds in his favor, and came up the winner, and taken some small amount of Bitcoins from the betters. And he could have been prepared to fold if he didn't win.
How can you prove that he didn't do that? I know you can "produce the winner in person", but you can't prove that the winner wasn't a shill.
Therefore, I am not only claiming that he COULD undetectably cheat, but that he MAY HAVE ALREADY cheated. If you can prove that he hasn't, you will make your case. But so far no one has give me any way to prove that he hasn't. And since (I believe) no one can absolutely prove that he hasn't, then clearly he CAN. and so I still claim to have won the bet.
Feel free to prove me wrong. Don't regret participating in spirited conversation! This is fun stuff!
PS. I'm not so greedy that I would demand a fortune in Bitcoins on a flip bet. It's just an interesting dilemma.
As an independent observer (who will probably regret posting in this thread):
jerfelix you did not win any bet. bitlotto was asking if there was a way he could undetectably cheat at the lottery. You did not provide a solution to this.
As for escrows why should bitlotto be any less reliable than any other escrow provider?
The solution is simple. If you don't trust bitlotto for whatever reason, don't play his lottery!
jerfelix you did not win any bet. bitlotto was asking if there was a way he could undetectably cheat at the lottery. You did not provide a solution to this.
As for escrows why should bitlotto be any less reliable than any other escrow provider?
The solution is simple. If you don't trust bitlotto for whatever reason, don't play his lottery!
I'd be more than happy having some type of escrow but no matter what you always depend on someone to finalize the payment. I'd rather it be me than someone else I don't know. With time people will see I'm trustworthy. The games are public and can be verified! If I can set an escrow beyond my control I will. I'm open to suggestions! I just don't know how I'd do it without people who lose somehow locking the money up.
My whole point is: I can't CHEAT and make myself the winner more than anyone else. *IF* I cheat everyone would know!! That's the point. Not that I get 1% or that I finalize the payment. I can't CHANGE THE RESULTS TO MAKE MYSELF WIN!
My whole point is: I can't CHEAT and make myself the winner more than anyone else. *IF* I cheat everyone would know!! That's the point. Not that I get 1% or that I finalize the payment. I can't CHANGE THE RESULTS TO MAKE MYSELF WIN!
"I'd rather it be me than someone else I don't know."
You'd rather it be you, of course. I'd rather it be someone who is trusted. And I'd rather it be someone who doesn't have a stake in the game. Gavin offers ClearCoin Escrow, and he seems to be someone that many people trust.
I'm really not trying to be a jerk here, but this whole thread is about running a trustworthy betting site, and you made a bet and lost, and are showing your level of trustworthiness. You really have few options at this point, because you and your site's reputation is at stake. If you make a very public bet, and lose (and if most people agree that you lost), and you don't pay, then why would they trust your site?
We can take this conversation offline if you prefer, but I think your reputation is at stake here.
Trusted escrow mitigates the flight risk. Without it, you can stack the odds against all other participants, and nearly guarantee a victory with the only downside being that you have to go out of business if the highly improbable happens.
With trusted escrow, you are in the same boat as the other participants, with the exception that your tickets only cost you 99 cents on the dollar. In other words, you have better odds for the same amount of money.
Hey, I'm willing to "settle out of court" on this. What do you think is fair for my security advice?
With trusted escrow, you are in the same boat as the other participants, with the exception that your tickets only cost you 99 cents on the dollar. In other words, you have better odds for the same amount of money.
Hey, I'm willing to "settle out of court" on this. What do you think is fair for my security advice?
I'd be more than happy having some type of escrow but no matter what you always depend on someone to finalize the payment. I'd rather it be me than someone else I don't know. With time people will see I'm trustworthy. The games are public and can be verified! If I can set an escrow beyond my control I will. I'm open to suggestions! I just don't know how I'd do it without people who lose somehow locking the money up.
My whole point is: I can't CHEAT and make myself the winner more than anyone else. *IF* I cheat everyone would know!! That's the point. Not that I get 1% or that I finalize the payment. I can't CHANGE THE RESULTS TO MAKE MYSELF WIN!
Escrow does nothing.
Trusted escrow mitigates the flight risk. Without it, you can stack the odds against all other participants, and nearly guarantee a victory with the only downside being that you have to go out of business if the highly improbable happens. With trusted escrow, you are in the same boat as the other participants, with the exception that your tickets only cost you 99 cents on the dollar. In other words, you have better odds for the same amount of money.
Hey, I'm willing to "settle out of court" on this. What do you think is fair for my security advice?
Come on, it's late, when I said:
If you can think of a way I can pay myself without everyone noticing I'll give you all the BTC I own!!
I was meaning:
If you can think of a way I can pay myself *UNFAIRLY* without everyone noticing I'll give you all the BTC I own!!
Of course I could play my own lottery. BUT I wouldn't be able to CHEAT!!
If you can think of a way I can pay myself without everyone noticing I'll give you all the BTC I own!!
I was meaning:
If you can think of a way I can pay myself *UNFAIRLY* without everyone noticing I'll give you all the BTC I own!!
Of course I could play my own lottery. BUT I wouldn't be able to CHEAT!!
Sure it could be me. My odds are the same as everyone else. When I said "If you can think of a way I can pay myself without everyone noticing I'll give you all the BTC I own!!" I meant a way I could pay myself UNFAIRLY and be UNNOTICED. If I play I could win. My odds would be the same as everyone else. It wasn't if you could think of a scenario where I could win. A truly anonymous and un-cheatable lottery could be won be it's own creator. Escrow does nothing. You always have to rely on someone to sent the payment. That's why with time I hope the trust grows. The trust is needed for the payment not how the lottery runs. I'll always pay because it's in my own self interest.
"If you can think of a way I can pay myself without everyone noticing" - And I'm certain you understand -cheating!
If I paid 99% of tickets I'd have to use my own money. I'd be on the same terms as everyone else. I can't use the money in the pool as it would show up as me taking money out! The 1% is known and makes sense as per my details. Flight risk? Ok, I didn't mean steal but cheat. Yes I could not pay or pay the wrong person but everyone would know! It's in my best interest to run the most cheat proof honest system. I could take the money but I'd be better off running an honest lottery the rest of my life!!!
I repeat. No you are NOT on the same terms as everyone else.
If all the money were held in a trusted independent escrow, THEN you'd be on the same terms as everybody else.
Somehow I feel that I am not going to collect on this. I point out a valid security concern, and I am not going to get rewarded.
Your challenge was to think of a way you can pay yourself without everyone noticing, yet your own website brags that we can't tell who actually owns the ticket.
Quote
Imagine a lottery where the exact number of tickets are known, as well as the what the ticket numbers are, without knowing who actually owns the ticket.
It could be you!You probably shouldn't have bet me all of your BTC, or you'd be comfortable admitting that this is a hole that you should fill. As I recently read on a website:
Quote
Know your limits. Play within them.
Sorry, I'm in a feisty mood tonight, but I think I have you on this one.
LOL. BUT the transactions would would show where the payment came from. I couldn't just pay from the pool back into the pool. I can't just move the money around. It would show up as me moving money out of the account for another reason other than payment of some winner. If I moved money to a certain address I would have to actually spend that money. I'd be on equal terms with everyone else.
yeah, that's why I said "freezing the money till the lottery date".
Is there a way for me to be able to tell that you didn't buy 99% of the tickets in the June 1 raffle?
You are NOT on equal terms with everyone else, because a) you are holding the money (and could be a flight risk if you lose), and b) you get to keep 1%.
I stand by my claim that you owe me all your BTC. Please tell me that it's $500K worth!
If I paid 99% of tickets I'd have to use my own money. I'd be on the same terms as everyone else. I can't use the money in the pool as it would show up as me taking money out! The 1% is known and makes sense as per my details. Flight risk? Ok, I didn't mean steal but cheat. Yes I could not pay or pay the wrong person but everyone would know! It's in my best interest to run the most cheat proof honest system. I could take the money but I'd be better off running an honest lottery the rest of my life!!!
LOL. BUT the transactions would would show where the payment came from. I couldn't just pay from the pool back into the pool. I can't just move the money around. It would show up as me moving money out of the account for another reason other than payment of some winner. If I moved money to a certain address I would have to actually spend that money. I'd be on equal terms with everyone else.
yeah, that's why I said "freezing the money till the lottery date".
Edit: Yes, you would have to "spend the money", but you are only paying yourself. In reality, all you need to do is take some of your savings and "spend it" by moving it to the lottery account, knowing that you will get it all back on June 1.
Is there a way for me to be able to tell that you didn't buy 99% of the tickets in the June 1 raffle?
You are NOT on equal terms with everyone else, because a) you are holding the money (and could be a flight risk if you lose), and b) you get to keep 1%.
I stand by my claim that you owe me all your BTC. Please tell me that it's $500K worth!
It's cheat proof. If you can think of a way I can pay myself without everyone noticing I'll give you all the BTC I own!!
Well, I feel stupid, because your lottery is pretty much exactly what I described! ha!
But, since you are offering me ALL of your BTC, I'll go ahead and claim those here. Send them on over to me, or tell me why I am wrong:
Here's how I think you could cheat.
For every entry that you get, create 1000 entries of your own. Entering the lottery essentially costs you nothing, as you are simply moving the money from one pocket to the other (and freezing it until the lottery date).
Now you have overwhelming odds of winning, at essentially zero cost. As the jackpots get larger and larger, it gains attention and gets more entries. And you make more money. And then you can afford to increase your investment, and increase your odds to near certainty.
And, if that 1 in a thousand case does eventually happen, then you just pack it up and disappear. And open bitlotto2.
OK, send me all your Bitcoins. Or tell me how I am wrong.
Judges? Am I right here? Did I just win all his Bitcoins?
(Really, I believe that you are honest, but for all I know, in the June 1 lottery, you had just 1 Bitcoin worth of real entrants, and ~130 fake entrants that you created. You won (surprise), and the jackpot looks attractive for the next round of suckers.)
Oh, and I was just checking your website. Interesting! Perhaps I may use your site as a alternate link for my lottery addresses! What kind of security do you use for the addresses? (I worry that someone would hack the link and change it so payments go somewhere else).
A valid concern. I'm not aiming for bank level security at this time. At Beta release, I was just aiming for being better and easier than putting your Bitcoin Address in to your signature. (Anyone who puts their address in their signature is also running the same risk - that the Forum owners will change it.)
I have a lot of plans for this site. If people begin to depend on it, I'll probably put in "locking" mechanisms so that in order to change the address, you have to unlock it via an email link. And then put in monitoring mechanisms from a separate machine that would also need to be compromised. Someone suggested a photo, so you could have a photo of you holding your Address.
Those are all ideas, but really the shortname idea is just sort of a precursor of another project that I am working on.
It's cheat proof. If you can think of a way I can pay myself without everyone noticing I'll give you all the BTC I own!!
Well, I feel stupid, because your lottery is pretty much exactly what I described! ha!
But, since you are offering me ALL of your BTC, I'll go ahead and claim those here. Send them on over to me, or tell me why I am wrong:
Here's how I think you could cheat.
For every entry that you get, create 1000 entries of your own. Entering the lottery essentially costs you nothing, as you are simply moving the money from one pocket to the other (and freezing it until the lottery date).
Now you have overwhelming odds of winning, at essentially zero cost. As the jackpots get larger and larger, it gains attention and gets more entries. And you make more money. And then you can afford to increase your investment, and increase your odds to near certainty.
And, if that 1 in a thousand case does eventually happen, then you just pack it up and disappear. And open bitlotto2.
OK, send me all your Bitcoins. Or tell me how I am wrong.
Judges? Am I right here? Did I just win all his Bitcoins?
(Really, I believe that you are honest, but for all I know, in the June 1 lottery, you had just 1 Bitcoin worth of real entrants, and ~130 fake entrants that you created. You won (surprise), and the jackpot looks attractive for the next round of suckers.)
Oh, and I was just checking your website. Interesting! Perhaps I may use your site as a alternate link for my lottery addresses! What kind of security do you use for the addresses? (I worry that someone would hack the link and change it so payments go somewhere else).
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