Exchange-rate : .0071
Adj NAV/U : 10.30075
Bid at 10.18
Topic: [LTC-GLOBAL] LTC-ATF - page 11. (Read 25457 times)
Bad timing - whilst I was posting the report, the LTC price did the drop I was expecting. As I wasn't paying attention to it, didn't make the profit I should have. Anyway, we're now back in LTC and up slightly from when I typed the report - so raising my bid up to 10.15.
UPDATE AND REPORT
We're now back over our initial IPO NAV/U of 10 - having dropped to 7.5 when LTC jumped vs BTC whilst we had BTC denominated assets stuck on GLBSE.
The final surge was down to one series of trades. I don't usually give details of trades but as this last jump was 10% in one go I'll explain how it happened.
LITECOINRS-PT WAS a pass-through to a stock on GLBSE. A few weeks back its owner decided that, rather than close it, he'd inject a bit of cash and convert it into an investment fund here. That was accompanied by offering to buyback all shares at IPO - so existing investors had nothing to complain about. At that point it was apparent that the NAV/U of current investments were WAY over the buyback price - so our fund bought in pretty heavily then relisted our purchases at decent markup - but still largely below the current NAV/U.
For the last few weeks those have pretty much just sat there - with noone seeming to notice how heavily underpriced they were (we sold a few but also bought more at steep discount). Finally today someone actually looked at the stock and bought in - getting sharest hemselves at 1/2-2/3 NAV/U and realising profit for us.
We bought in at 1.0-1.1. Our sales today were:
100 @ 1.5, 100 @1.75, 200 @2.0
It's easy enough to work out we made 300+ LTC on that. A fair NAV/U for the share is definitely over 3 - so the buyer got a good deal. Why did we sell so cheap then? For two reasons:
1. General - our mandate is to day-trade. We buy stuff with the intent/expectation of selling pretty quickly at a profit. In a liquid market it's fine to try to buy below value and sell slightly above value. In an illiquid market I prefer to try to buy WELL below fair value and sell below value as well. Usually I wouldn't sell this far below value though.
2. Specific - at peak we had over 20% of our fund invested in this one share. Whilst I'm fine with having that much in one share briefly I don't like to have us so exposed on one asset for any great length of time. In general I try to keep holdings below 10% in any single asset. So I was fine with selling off SOME of this stock cheaply and "only" taking a 40-80% profit on it.
Until the sales today this share had been valued on our books at what we paid for it - as is my usual policy. I've now marked the remaining ones up slightly - but we'll still make some more nice profit when the remainder sell.
After posting this I'll be taking my management fee which is 6 units this week (rounded down from 6.13).
At present we have quite a bit in BTC on BTC-E, so for now Bid will be at 10.05. Should be able to raise that a little once I get us back into LTC.
For now there's no units up for sale from the fund. Two reasons for this:
1. Until some more shares get sold to us (or bought by me) we don't actually need more cash. No point selling new units if all it does is dilute the profits for existing investors.
2. There's every chance more of the LITECOINSRS-PT shares will sell shortly - if so, I don't want someone buying units cheap before I've had a chance to adjust my Ask upwards.
If our cash on hand reduces (either by security purchase or by selling back of units to the fund) then I'll put more units up for sale. Until then anyone who wants in needs to find a current investor willing to sell.
We're now back over our initial IPO NAV/U of 10 - having dropped to 7.5 when LTC jumped vs BTC whilst we had BTC denominated assets stuck on GLBSE.
The final surge was down to one series of trades. I don't usually give details of trades but as this last jump was 10% in one go I'll explain how it happened.
LITECOINRS-PT WAS a pass-through to a stock on GLBSE. A few weeks back its owner decided that, rather than close it, he'd inject a bit of cash and convert it into an investment fund here. That was accompanied by offering to buyback all shares at IPO - so existing investors had nothing to complain about. At that point it was apparent that the NAV/U of current investments were WAY over the buyback price - so our fund bought in pretty heavily then relisted our purchases at decent markup - but still largely below the current NAV/U.
For the last few weeks those have pretty much just sat there - with noone seeming to notice how heavily underpriced they were (we sold a few but also bought more at steep discount). Finally today someone actually looked at the stock and bought in - getting sharest hemselves at 1/2-2/3 NAV/U and realising profit for us.
We bought in at 1.0-1.1. Our sales today were:
100 @ 1.5, 100 @1.75, 200 @2.0
It's easy enough to work out we made 300+ LTC on that. A fair NAV/U for the share is definitely over 3 - so the buyer got a good deal. Why did we sell so cheap then? For two reasons:
1. General - our mandate is to day-trade. We buy stuff with the intent/expectation of selling pretty quickly at a profit. In a liquid market it's fine to try to buy below value and sell slightly above value. In an illiquid market I prefer to try to buy WELL below fair value and sell below value as well. Usually I wouldn't sell this far below value though.
2. Specific - at peak we had over 20% of our fund invested in this one share. Whilst I'm fine with having that much in one share briefly I don't like to have us so exposed on one asset for any great length of time. In general I try to keep holdings below 10% in any single asset. So I was fine with selling off SOME of this stock cheaply and "only" taking a 40-80% profit on it.
Until the sales today this share had been valued on our books at what we paid for it - as is my usual policy. I've now marked the remaining ones up slightly - but we'll still make some more nice profit when the remainder sell.
After posting this I'll be taking my management fee which is 6 units this week (rounded down from 6.13).
At present we have quite a bit in BTC on BTC-E, so for now Bid will be at 10.05. Should be able to raise that a little once I get us back into LTC.
For now there's no units up for sale from the fund. Two reasons for this:
1. Until some more shares get sold to us (or bought by me) we don't actually need more cash. No point selling new units if all it does is dilute the profits for existing investors.
2. There's every chance more of the LITECOINSRS-PT shares will sell shortly - if so, I don't want someone buying units cheap before I've had a chance to adjust my Ask upwards.
If our cash on hand reduces (either by security purchase or by selling back of units to the fund) then I'll put more units up for sale. Until then anyone who wants in needs to find a current investor willing to sell.
Exchange-rate : 0.00744
Adjusted NAV/U : 9.31197
Bid at 9.19
Ask at 9.46
Holding mainly LTC again, so have tightened spread a bit.
Adjusted NAV/U : 9.31197
Bid at 9.19
Ask at 9.46
Holding mainly LTC again, so have tightened spread a bit.
Exchange-rate : .00746
Adjusted NAV/U : 9.26092
Bid at 9.1
Ask at 9.45
Leaving a fairly wide-spread overnight as we have a fair chunk in BTC at the moment, so price a bit more volatile with currency moves than last few days. As can be seen, we grew a lottle bit today even though ltc raised 3% or so vs BTC - that was because we were largely unaffected by the currency rise due to already being totally in LTC (as noted in previous post).
Will tighten spread a bit when I get online tomorrow. If anyone wants to buy in or out would suggest you put up asks at around 9.2 or bids at around 9.35 rather than buy from my overnight spread and I'll fill them when I get up unless they've moved out of range due to either currency moves or profit from trades transacted whlst I was offline.
Adjusted NAV/U : 9.26092
Bid at 9.1
Ask at 9.45
Leaving a fairly wide-spread overnight as we have a fair chunk in BTC at the moment, so price a bit more volatile with currency moves than last few days. As can be seen, we grew a lottle bit today even though ltc raised 3% or so vs BTC - that was because we were largely unaffected by the currency rise due to already being totally in LTC (as noted in previous post).
Will tighten spread a bit when I get online tomorrow. If anyone wants to buy in or out would suggest you put up asks at around 9.2 or bids at around 9.35 rather than buy from my overnight spread and I'll fill them when I get up unless they've moved out of range due to either currency moves or profit from trades transacted whlst I was offline.
LTC taking a bit of a dive vs BTC at the moment. Down to about .0071 right now.
I didn't expect it to fall quite so much - and the fund got to 100% LTC when the price was about .0073. So if the exchange-rate drops lower we won't be getting any significant increase in unit value. Conversely, if the price does a big bounce back up (which often happens) we're nicely positioned to sell out at the peak.
Exchange-rate ~ .0071 (big gap above that - as noone's following the price down other than a few bots : hence high chance of a fast bump back up).
Adjusted NAV/U : 9.233006
Bid at 9.1
Ask at 9.35
The value is pretty stable as we're 100% in LTC (other than the odds and ends of shares tuck on GLBSE). e.g. even if rate shot up to .008 we'd still be ahead of where we started the day (and if it fell to .006 we wouldn't gain much from it). It's a shame to be missing out on profit if it falls further - but we've been regaining value decently so no need to start gambling on big exchange-swings.
The fall wasn't one big dump - a fair bit of it would have been traders correcting for a mismatch between the LTC/BTC and LTC/USD books (did a few cycles of correction myself but the profit was way too small to be worth the effort of doing it manually). And the rest likely the sheeple seeing price fall so following blindly.
I didn't expect it to fall quite so much - and the fund got to 100% LTC when the price was about .0073. So if the exchange-rate drops lower we won't be getting any significant increase in unit value. Conversely, if the price does a big bounce back up (which often happens) we're nicely positioned to sell out at the peak.
Exchange-rate ~ .0071 (big gap above that - as noone's following the price down other than a few bots : hence high chance of a fast bump back up).
Adjusted NAV/U : 9.233006
Bid at 9.1
Ask at 9.35
The value is pretty stable as we're 100% in LTC (other than the odds and ends of shares tuck on GLBSE). e.g. even if rate shot up to .008 we'd still be ahead of where we started the day (and if it fell to .006 we wouldn't gain much from it). It's a shame to be missing out on profit if it falls further - but we've been regaining value decently so no need to start gambling on big exchange-swings.
The fall wasn't one big dump - a fair bit of it would have been traders correcting for a mismatch between the LTC/BTC and LTC/USD books (did a few cycles of correction myself but the profit was way too small to be worth the effort of doing it manually). And the rest likely the sheeple seeing price fall so following blindly.
Exchange-rate : 0.00747
Adjusted NAV/U : 9.15587
Bid at 9.04
Ask at 9.3
Adjusted NAV/U : 9.15587
Bid at 9.04
Ask at 9.3
Exchange-rate : 0.00753
Adjusted NAV/U : 9.099822
Bid at 8.97
Ask at 9.24
Not too much happening - currency fairly stable and only a small amount of trading happening on LTC-GLOBAL. Slow but steady profits would be fine by me though.
Adjusted NAV/U : 9.099822
Bid at 8.97
Ask at 9.24
Not too much happening - currency fairly stable and only a small amount of trading happening on LTC-GLOBAL. Slow but steady profits would be fine by me though.
Exchange-rate : 0.00743
Adjusted NAV/U : 9.055844
Bid at 9.15
Ask at 8.96
We had a few profitable sales go through overnight. We're no longer holding just LTC (have some BTC on BTC-E) so spread isn't quite as tight as I was able to make it last night. I'll be only be around for a few more hours before going out - at which point the spread will widen more.
Adjusted NAV/U : 9.055844
Bid at 9.15
Ask at 8.96
We had a few profitable sales go through overnight. We're no longer holding just LTC (have some BTC on BTC-E) so spread isn't quite as tight as I was able to make it last night. I'll be only be around for a few more hours before going out - at which point the spread will widen more.
UPDATE AND REPORT
This week has ended with LTC up around 10% on BTC against last week. Had I not been trading that would have translated into about a 4% loss in value (in LTC) for the fund. As it is, we made about a 3% gain on the week - so trading was making about 1% per day on average.
We're ending the week with pretty much no BTC holdings (other than the few shares locked on GLBSE). This isn't a policy change - just that the exchange-rate has fallen to a point where I believe the next move is likely to be slightly upward: so we'll be back to having significant BTC holdings before long (if I'm right).
Management fee for this week is 1 share (rounded down) - I don't get to claim for profits that were wiped by currency move.
1 share will be transferred and the HWM updated shortly after I post this.
As we're temporarily almost compeltely in LTC (and hence almost unaffected by any exchange-rate move) I can offer a VERY tight spread for the next few hours (or until the currency starts to move and I have to get back into BTC).
Bid at : 8.95
Ask at : 9.05
If you want to get into (or out of) the fund this is best chance you'll get buying from my orders (you may be able to do better placing bids/asks yourself and hoping someone else fills them).
This week has ended with LTC up around 10% on BTC against last week. Had I not been trading that would have translated into about a 4% loss in value (in LTC) for the fund. As it is, we made about a 3% gain on the week - so trading was making about 1% per day on average.
We're ending the week with pretty much no BTC holdings (other than the few shares locked on GLBSE). This isn't a policy change - just that the exchange-rate has fallen to a point where I believe the next move is likely to be slightly upward: so we'll be back to having significant BTC holdings before long (if I'm right).
Management fee for this week is 1 share (rounded down) - I don't get to claim for profits that were wiped by currency move.
1 share will be transferred and the HWM updated shortly after I post this.
As we're temporarily almost compeltely in LTC (and hence almost unaffected by any exchange-rate move) I can offer a VERY tight spread for the next few hours (or until the currency starts to move and I have to get back into BTC).
Bid at : 8.95
Ask at : 9.05
If you want to get into (or out of) the fund this is best chance you'll get buying from my orders (you may be able to do better placing bids/asks yourself and hoping someone else fills them).
Exchange-rate : .00778
Adj NAV/U : 8.94165
Bid : 8.78
Ask : 9.08
Very slow day yesterday - exchange-rate was pretty stagnant and very little activity on LTC-GLOBAL.
Adj NAV/U : 8.94165
Bid : 8.78
Ask : 9.08
Very slow day yesterday - exchange-rate was pretty stagnant and very little activity on LTC-GLOBAL.
Exchange-rate : .00779
Adj NAV/U : 8.901517
Bid : 8.75
Ask : 9.05
Pretty hectic day yesterday with the exchange-rate. It dumped down to around .007 then was pumped to .0082. It then fell to .0073 before being repeatedly pumped back to 0.0081. I managed to trade decently on one of the cycles, so although LTC has gained aboout 4% vs BTC since last update (which would have been a fall in our unit price of ~1.5%) we''re actually up a bit over 1% on the day.
Whilst currency trading isn't one of my main objectives (with the tiny amount of this fund it's too much work for miniscule returns anyway) I do try to take advantage of obvious pump/dumps and minimise our losses when the rate rises. I keep some of our funds on BTC-E for a few reasons:
1. To allow us to trade on obvious pump/dumps,
2. To keep some non-LTC assets (BTC) so even if LTC falls to near zero we still retain some value,
3. To ensure I have liquid funds to keep a bid-wall up.
Point 3 may seem strange at first - surely I could just keep LTC on LTC-GLOBAL for that? Well, no I actually can't (at least not in the asset-issuer account). We typically have bids up that amount to more than the amount of LTC in our wallet. If a bunch of them then get filled then the rest would auto-cancel. That would include my bid-wall on our own units. By keepung some funds out of that pool, I ensure that no sells to other bids of ours can use up so many funds that the obligation to keep up a bid-wall for 5% of our own units is broken (other than for the 10 minutes it takes to move funds over).
There's a decently tight spread up at moment - as we happen to not have much in BTC at moment (the serial pumper on the eexchanges always buys up to over .008 so I'm not selling LTC below that right now - may as well get as much as we can out of him on his next pump try).
One final note: If you want to buy in or sell out you DON'T have to pay the full spread I put up. If I see a bid or ask that's within 1% of current value and it doesn't disadvantage the fund for me to fill it then I'll fill it. The purpose of the spread is NOT to try to charge a hefty fee for buying in/out - it's to ensure that people buying in/out can't do so at prices that will cause loss to current investors. Any time the price is pretty stable I'll happily buy anyone in or out if it doesn't cost existing investors.
Adj NAV/U : 8.901517
Bid : 8.75
Ask : 9.05
Pretty hectic day yesterday with the exchange-rate. It dumped down to around .007 then was pumped to .0082. It then fell to .0073 before being repeatedly pumped back to 0.0081. I managed to trade decently on one of the cycles, so although LTC has gained aboout 4% vs BTC since last update (which would have been a fall in our unit price of ~1.5%) we''re actually up a bit over 1% on the day.
Whilst currency trading isn't one of my main objectives (with the tiny amount of this fund it's too much work for miniscule returns anyway) I do try to take advantage of obvious pump/dumps and minimise our losses when the rate rises. I keep some of our funds on BTC-E for a few reasons:
1. To allow us to trade on obvious pump/dumps,
2. To keep some non-LTC assets (BTC) so even if LTC falls to near zero we still retain some value,
3. To ensure I have liquid funds to keep a bid-wall up.
Point 3 may seem strange at first - surely I could just keep LTC on LTC-GLOBAL for that? Well, no I actually can't (at least not in the asset-issuer account). We typically have bids up that amount to more than the amount of LTC in our wallet. If a bunch of them then get filled then the rest would auto-cancel. That would include my bid-wall on our own units. By keepung some funds out of that pool, I ensure that no sells to other bids of ours can use up so many funds that the obligation to keep up a bid-wall for 5% of our own units is broken (other than for the 10 minutes it takes to move funds over).
There's a decently tight spread up at moment - as we happen to not have much in BTC at moment (the serial pumper on the eexchanges always buys up to over .008 so I'm not selling LTC below that right now - may as well get as much as we can out of him on his next pump try).
One final note: If you want to buy in or sell out you DON'T have to pay the full spread I put up. If I see a bid or ask that's within 1% of current value and it doesn't disadvantage the fund for me to fill it then I'll fill it. The purpose of the spread is NOT to try to charge a hefty fee for buying in/out - it's to ensure that people buying in/out can't do so at prices that will cause loss to current investors. Any time the price is pretty stable I'll happily buy anyone in or out if it doesn't cost existing investors.
Exchange-rate 0.00747
Adj NAV/U : 8.796833
Bid : 8.65
Ask : 9.0
Adj NAV/U : 8.796833
Bid : 8.65
Ask : 9.0
Exchange-rate : .00746
Current NAV/U : 8.72846
Exchange-rate moved around a bit but ended up pretty much back where it started. Will be out for next 4-8 hours, so setting a widish spread - will narrow it once I get back. Bidding at 8.45, Asking at 9 whilst I'm afk.
Current NAV/U : 8.72846
Exchange-rate moved around a bit but ended up pretty much back where it started. Will be out for next 4-8 hours, so setting a widish spread - will narrow it once I get back. Bidding at 8.45, Asking at 9 whilst I'm afk.
Exchange-rate : .00748
NAV/U : 8.707926
Exchange-rate feels like it's going to move soon - the walls either side of it have largely vanished. I would tend to expect an upwards move given that next difficulty change is upwards - but in a purely speculative currency like LTC moves aren't always rational and are often just the herd stampeding in whichever direction somewhat started a move. Hopefully I'll be around and watching when it happens to trade some profit from it.
For now putting Bid : 8.55 , Ask 8.85
That spread will widen later this afternoon whilst I'm out.
NAV/U : 8.707926
Exchange-rate feels like it's going to move soon - the walls either side of it have largely vanished. I would tend to expect an upwards move given that next difficulty change is upwards - but in a purely speculative currency like LTC moves aren't always rational and are often just the herd stampeding in whichever direction somewhat started a move. Hopefully I'll be around and watching when it happens to trade some profit from it.
For now putting Bid : 8.55 , Ask 8.85
That spread will widen later this afternoon whilst I'm out.
Exchange-rate 0.00747
NAV/U : 8.6410939
Bid at 8.5
Ask at 8.8
Exchange-rate has been stable for a few days now. Will try to keep a tight spread as long as I can.
NAV/U : 8.6410939
Bid at 8.5
Ask at 8.8
Exchange-rate has been stable for a few days now. Will try to keep a tight spread as long as I can.
Exchange-rate 0.00748
NAV/U : 8.63078
Bid at 8.45
Ask at 8.85
Exchange-rate has stayed in the same band. There's been little trading activity - and our ability to trade is slightly restricted as I can no longer comfortably trade esecurity.SA securities. If those were a scam then now's whem it would become apparent (market price holding below cost meaning no likelihood of being able to sell more/an esecurity3). Neither of them paid its dividend yesterday and neotrix' pool website is totally down without any explanation. So I won't risk holding any unless they're picked up at a tiny percent of their theoretical value or some update is provided. We haven't actually traded them much anyway - think last was a week back when we picked up a hundred or so and sold them back off same day for a 10-30% markup.
NAV/U : 8.63078
Bid at 8.45
Ask at 8.85
Exchange-rate has stayed in the same band. There's been little trading activity - and our ability to trade is slightly restricted as I can no longer comfortably trade esecurity.SA securities. If those were a scam then now's whem it would become apparent (market price holding below cost meaning no likelihood of being able to sell more/an esecurity3). Neither of them paid its dividend yesterday and neotrix' pool website is totally down without any explanation. So I won't risk holding any unless they're picked up at a tiny percent of their theoretical value or some update is provided. We haven't actually traded them much anyway - think last was a week back when we picked up a hundred or so and sold them back off same day for a 10-30% markup.
Exchange-rate 0.00747
Current NAV/U : 8.6147
Exchange-rate rose a fair bit yesterday evening, but now seems fairly solid in the .0072 - .0078 range. Obviously NAV is down a bit - but has been offset a bit by trading profits.
FOr comparison, exchange-rate was the same 3 days ago:
You can see we're up about 4% from where we were the last time this was the exchange-rate (about 3.5% after taking into account that the old adjusted NAV/U was slightly undervalued).
Setting bid at 8.4, Ask at 8.9. Will widen the spread before I log off for the night.
Current NAV/U : 8.6147
Exchange-rate rose a fair bit yesterday evening, but now seems fairly solid in the .0072 - .0078 range. Obviously NAV is down a bit - but has been offset a bit by trading profits.
FOr comparison, exchange-rate was the same 3 days ago:
Current exchange-rate 0.00747
Current adjusted NAV/U : 8.1796
Current adjusted NAV/U : 8.1796
You can see we're up about 4% from where we were the last time this was the exchange-rate (about 3.5% after taking into account that the old adjusted NAV/U was slightly undervalued).
Setting bid at 8.4, Ask at 8.9. Will widen the spread before I log off for the night.
UPDATE AND REPORT
Going to do a report now. The fund has appreciated significantly - and without doing a report it's hard to set a tight spread. The reason for that is because I report adjusted NAV/U (NAV/U less projected management fee) but I have to set Ask price based on unadjusted NAV/U - or anyone buying in would reduce the NAV/U (and also Adj NAV/U) for existing investors. When the fund's up over 10% (as it is) that adds over 1% to the spread. It's made worse this time, as the adjusted NAV/U is actually artifically low as a decent chunk of the "profits" are ones caused solely by the exchange-rate change, upon which no management fee is due. So I end up pricing Asks too high.
SPREADSHEET
SUMMARY
The fund's grown back nicely over the 4 days or so since we received back our GLBSE funds and started trading again. I'd guess about half the growth is down to the exchange-rate change and the other half actual trading profit (will calculate exact figures as I type this report).
Just to clarify about our GLBSE funds: we were in the first batch paid who received back 100% of BTC from GLBSE. We weren't in the batch who received 90% (some got it twice). So we don't have any over-payment to return or anything.
Exchange-Rate : .00685
NAV/U : 8.87679642
Adjusted NAV/U : 8.752765997
From the spreadsheet it can be seen that I'm enttled to 5.8 units as management fee, however (per contract) that needs to be adjusted down to address the fact that the exchange-rate dropped a lot, so a lot of the "profit" for this period isn't down to my trading and I shouldn't receive a management fee for that portion. Here's the calculation for it:
Exchange-rate at last report was .0078
HWM at that point was set at 7.63649216 LTC
Converted into BTC (at the rate then) that is .0595646388
Current NAV/U in BTC if the exchange-rate still were .0078 is .06577216
So the gain per unit (in BTC) if exchange-rate hadn't changed is .00620752
Multiplied by 409 outstanding units that's 2.53887615 BTC
10% of that profit is .253887615 BTC - the actual management fee I'm due.
That's now converted back to LTC at the CURRENT exchange-rate (as the units are being paid now) and is 37.063885 LTC
That should actually be divided by a corrected adjusted NAV/U (which would lie between the reported NAV/U of 8.876 and the reported adjusted NAV/U of 8.75) but luckily it's pretty clear that rounded down it'll be 4 units (4*9 < 37 so we know it's 4+), so it saves a bit of nasty math.
Double-checking this, with the old exchange-rate plugged in, the spreadsheet shows a management fee of 3.9 units (based on valuation in LTC). Why the difference? Well, the precise calculation of what amount of profit is down to management fee (by the method I'm using) will vary depending on whether it's done in BTC or LTC. BTC was chosen in the contract as, at that point, the bulk of our trading was done on GLBSE and so was denominated in BTC. Thus using BTC as the base currency to revalue to exclude exchange-rate impact made sense. Now the situation is less clear - as we have a small majority of our assets LTC-denominated, though at times (e.g. yesterday when exchange-rate hit a low) we still have a majority BTC denominated.
Any calculation will only be approximate. We can do a simple check to see if it's in the right ball-park as follows:
NAV has increased by 16.24%
LTC has weakened by 12.1%, but under half our assets were in BTC at the time (and that valuedropped during the week) so very clearly this accounts for well under half the growth in the fund (the holdings denominated in LTC aren't impacted at all by the exchange-rate change).
I will therefore be taking 4 units as management fee as per the calculation done according to the contract.
With those units added into the spreadsheet we end up with a new NAV/U of 8.79082261.
That's slightly higher than the adjusted NAV/U at the beginning of this report due to me only taking 4 units instead of the 5.8 the spreadsheet was assuming. HWM is now also adjusted to that value (and, of course, that is also the current Adjusted NAV/U).
Bidding at 8.45
Asking at 9.1
Going to do a report now. The fund has appreciated significantly - and without doing a report it's hard to set a tight spread. The reason for that is because I report adjusted NAV/U (NAV/U less projected management fee) but I have to set Ask price based on unadjusted NAV/U - or anyone buying in would reduce the NAV/U (and also Adj NAV/U) for existing investors. When the fund's up over 10% (as it is) that adds over 1% to the spread. It's made worse this time, as the adjusted NAV/U is actually artifically low as a decent chunk of the "profits" are ones caused solely by the exchange-rate change, upon which no management fee is due. So I end up pricing Asks too high.
SPREADSHEET
SUMMARY
The fund's grown back nicely over the 4 days or so since we received back our GLBSE funds and started trading again. I'd guess about half the growth is down to the exchange-rate change and the other half actual trading profit (will calculate exact figures as I type this report).
Just to clarify about our GLBSE funds: we were in the first batch paid who received back 100% of BTC from GLBSE. We weren't in the batch who received 90% (some got it twice). So we don't have any over-payment to return or anything.
Exchange-Rate : .00685
NAV/U : 8.87679642
Adjusted NAV/U : 8.752765997
From the spreadsheet it can be seen that I'm enttled to 5.8 units as management fee, however (per contract) that needs to be adjusted down to address the fact that the exchange-rate dropped a lot, so a lot of the "profit" for this period isn't down to my trading and I shouldn't receive a management fee for that portion. Here's the calculation for it:
Exchange-rate at last report was .0078
HWM at that point was set at 7.63649216 LTC
Converted into BTC (at the rate then) that is .0595646388
Current NAV/U in BTC if the exchange-rate still were .0078 is .06577216
So the gain per unit (in BTC) if exchange-rate hadn't changed is .00620752
Multiplied by 409 outstanding units that's 2.53887615 BTC
10% of that profit is .253887615 BTC - the actual management fee I'm due.
That's now converted back to LTC at the CURRENT exchange-rate (as the units are being paid now) and is 37.063885 LTC
That should actually be divided by a corrected adjusted NAV/U (which would lie between the reported NAV/U of 8.876 and the reported adjusted NAV/U of 8.75) but luckily it's pretty clear that rounded down it'll be 4 units (4*9 < 37 so we know it's 4+), so it saves a bit of nasty math.
Double-checking this, with the old exchange-rate plugged in, the spreadsheet shows a management fee of 3.9 units (based on valuation in LTC). Why the difference? Well, the precise calculation of what amount of profit is down to management fee (by the method I'm using) will vary depending on whether it's done in BTC or LTC. BTC was chosen in the contract as, at that point, the bulk of our trading was done on GLBSE and so was denominated in BTC. Thus using BTC as the base currency to revalue to exclude exchange-rate impact made sense. Now the situation is less clear - as we have a small majority of our assets LTC-denominated, though at times (e.g. yesterday when exchange-rate hit a low) we still have a majority BTC denominated.
Any calculation will only be approximate. We can do a simple check to see if it's in the right ball-park as follows:
NAV has increased by 16.24%
LTC has weakened by 12.1%, but under half our assets were in BTC at the time (and that valuedropped during the week) so very clearly this accounts for well under half the growth in the fund (the holdings denominated in LTC aren't impacted at all by the exchange-rate change).
I will therefore be taking 4 units as management fee as per the calculation done according to the contract.
With those units added into the spreadsheet we end up with a new NAV/U of 8.79082261.
That's slightly higher than the adjusted NAV/U at the beginning of this report due to me only taking 4 units instead of the 5.8 the spreadsheet was assuming. HWM is now also adjusted to that value (and, of course, that is also the current Adjusted NAV/U).
Bidding at 8.45
Asking at 9.1
Fun day with the LTC/BTC exchange-rate. It plummeted down to almost .005 then rebounded back up to over .007 before settling down in .0066 area. Managed to trade a small profit on currency, which made up for LTC-GLOBAL being inaccessible for much of the evening so no trading profit on there.
Current exchange-rate : .00665
Current adjusted NAV/U : 8.8001129
Exchange-rate is far from solid - it could move significantly either way, so leaving a pretty wide spread up overnight. Bid at 8.4, Ask at 9.6.
For the bid to be decent value you'd be wanting an exchange-rate of .0072 or higher. For the ask to be a fair price you'd want the exchange-rate to be .0055 or lower. As always I'm erring on the side of caution to protect existing investors. Hopefully rate will be more stable tomorrow and I can set a tighter spread.
Current exchange-rate : .00665
Current adjusted NAV/U : 8.8001129
Exchange-rate is far from solid - it could move significantly either way, so leaving a pretty wide spread up overnight. Bid at 8.4, Ask at 9.6.
For the bid to be decent value you'd be wanting an exchange-rate of .0072 or higher. For the ask to be a fair price you'd want the exchange-rate to be .0055 or lower. As always I'm erring on the side of caution to protect existing investors. Hopefully rate will be more stable tomorrow and I can set a tighter spread.
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