Topic: [LTC-GLOBAL] LTC-ATF - page 13. (Read 25457 times)

Yeah, guessed that was the case - only issued the motion to test the system.  Next one I'm gonna try is voting with the shares on my personal account, sending them back to main asset, returning them to my personal account and seeing if they get to vote again

Not sure how you do voting - if you just add up votes when someone clicks the vote button then you'll have same problem GLBSE has (you can end with more votes than shares - and by transferring shares the votes can be rigged).  Way i THINK you should do it is to register the vote for the person voting - and only convert it to actual share-votes when the motion ends (based on whatever shares they hold at that time).

Cross-posting this to your thread for the exchange in case you miss it here.

There's currently no bid up from me on LTC-ATF (should be one before long - just waiting on exchange-rate to settle down a little).

Earlier the price of LTC/BTC actually hit the 0.005 mark (a 20% rise in a few hours).  I pulled my bid quickly obviously.  Someone else had a bid up at 10.1 for 20 units.  when the rise looked like slowing I sold to that bid (NAV/U was under 10.1 at that stage) then transferred the LTC from the sale to BTC-E with some other LTC (making sure to leave 5% of fund value liquid on LTC-GLOBAL of course).  I then sold into the exchange at peak and bought back lower for a profit.

Exchange rate is currently hovering at around 0.0043 - I expect it to drop a bit lower in next few hours.

Whoever's bid I sold to now has units worth more than they paid - and, because I was able to use their funds to take advantage of the exchange-rate spike, our fund will have gained more LTC from the sale to them at 10.1 than if they'd bought NOW from us at our ask of 10.6.  Note that we had plenty of liquid funds in BTC - but no way I could use those as they were on the wrong side of the market and would have taken too long to move from GLBSE.

I fixed your 'NO' vote.   

There was a bug where asset issuers were able to vote with their non-outstanding shares.

Cheers.

Exchange rate at .00412

NAV/U at 10.36764959

Bid up at 10.2, Ask up at 10.5

There's some volume slowly building up around the .004-.0042 range, so with any luck the exchange-rate will settle in that area for a while.

I've also raised a motion on LTC-ATF.  The text of it is:

"    

This motion is advisory in nature and the asset issuer is not obligated to
commit (or not commit) any action in response to it.

Proposition : The unit-holders of this fund believe that the motion system on
LTC-GLOBAL is functioning properly.

Vote Yes if you agree with the proposition.
Vote No if disagree or would prefer to press the No button (IF there's a NO
button - which I don't know yet)"

The motion shows up on the LTC-ATF page (near bottom).  I'd encourage all investors to vote (doesn't matter which way) so we can see if/how well the system works.

Exchange rate at 0.00399.

Adjusted NAV/U at 10.50730245

Ask staying at 10.6, moving Bid up to 10.3 as the exchange rate seems to have stabilised a bit (famous last words, no doubt).

Just a bit of explanation for the math of something which might seem offputting to some if not through carefully.  It would be easy to look at my historical NAV/Us and Bid prices and think "Heh - something's wrong here: he's saying NAV/U is 10.45 but placing bids at 10.15 meaning we can only draw out 1/3 of the claimed profits."

There's two reasons why that's the case - one obvious and one much less so.

Obvious: I have to hedge against exchange-rate fluctuations (so people can't drain money from the funds by buying/selling based on pretty small changes in the rate).  I have to balance between two competing interests - offering attractive rates to those trying to buy in/sell out and protecting the investments of those already in and staying in.  I will always err on the side of caution in attempting to achieve the latter of those two.

Less Obvious: My spreads are based on a % of unit value NOT on a % of profit - so attempting to assess them based on a % of profit is misleading.

If NAV/U is 10.45 and my bids are 10.15 then the margin on bids is NOT to withhold 66% of profits, it's to offer bids at at around 2-3% below NAV/U (which is what I typically do if the rate looks fairly volatile).  Consider two extreme examples -

If NAV/U were 10.00000001 Then my bid would be around 9.7 - 9.8.  Rather obviously that's withholding more all profits AND some of original capital.

At other end of the scale consider if NAV/U were 20.  Then my bid would be around 19.4 - 19.6.  Obviously that's withholding around 5% of total profits.

In short: don't look at the current % of profits you can't withdraw and mistakenly assume that in some way my bids are actually BASED on withholding profits - they aren't.  My bids are based on the best price I believe I can safely offer such that any likely exchange-rate fluctations whilst the bid is unattended will not detrimentally impact the value of units belonging to investors already in the fund and not trying to exit.

Exchange rate at 0.00395

Adjusted NAV/U at 10.50244162

Asks up at 10.6, a very small bid up at 10.15.

Last 3 trades were all sells back to the fund (54 units - approx 10% of units).  That drained our liquid LTC.  Have BTC on withdraw from GLBSE, will convert it in morning and put up the usual 30 unit wall.  As the fund mainly day trades, liquidity isn't the huge problem it is for some investments - only real delay is converting from BTC to LTC (withdrawals from GLBSE is the slow part).

Exchange rate at 0.00397

NAV/U : 10.4563912

Not been on long (as I said yesterday, I have a busy day today).  Some of my bids and asks went through whilst I was offline - the profits from those just about cancelled out the reduction in value (in LTC) from the exchange-rate change.

Also had our first sell-back of units to the fund today - which added a tiny bit to the NAV/U of everyone else.  Will be around on and off for rest of the evening - then trading as usual again tomorrow.

WEEKLY RESULTS FOR THE TRADING PERIOD 26th Sep 2012 - 29th SEP 2012

Results are given in LTC (in which this fund is denominated) and also in BTC (for any investors who view BTC-value as more important than LTC value).

NAV/U (LTC) at start of period : 10.0
LTC/BTC exchange rate at start of period : .00356
NAV/U (BTC) at start of period : 0.0356

NAV/U (LTC) at end of period : 10.50186932
LTC/BTC exchange rate at end of period : .00383
NAV/U (BTC) at end of period : 0.04022216

Exchange-rate change during week : +7.58%

Trading Profit :

Change in NAV/U (LTC) : +5.087%
Change in NAV/U (BTC) : +12.98%

Management Fee taken : 2 units.

New High Watermark : 10.45168239

I'm satisfied with the results of the first few day's trading.  We made a reasonable profit -despite a large chunk of it (measured in LTC) being wiped out by the change in the exchange-rate.  I should point out at this stage that IF the exchange rate had reduced us into a loss (in LTC) for the week I would be entitled to reduce the HWM to the new NAV/U.  In fact it didn't take us into loss - though it did nicely eat up a chunk of the management fee I would otherwise have earned.

For reference, if the exchange rate had not changed during the week (i.e. it ended at .00356) then the ending adjusted NAV/U would have been 10.98 and we would have made 9.8% profit measured in both LTC and BTC.  I would also have been entiteld to 5 units (5.37 rounded down) as fee.  Such is life - no doubt there'll be weeks where the exchange rate drops (by less than 5%) and I get an extra unit or 2 fee.

IMPORTANT : do NOT make the mistake of thinking "we made 9.8% trading profit in half a week so we should make 15-20% each week".  That absolutely will not be the case.  Here's why:

1.  Some of the most profitable activites are only available on a very tiny scale - as the fund grows the profit from those has a decreasing effect on overall profits.
2.  So far I haven't made any typos, bought into a security just before the bottom fell out of it or got stuck with some useless junk that noone else is willing to buy.  The first of those (typos) will likely happen at some point.  The second (bad timing) is inevitable at some stage.  The third (getting junk noone else will buy) shouldn't happen - but is possible (for GLBSE shares I have very strict rules on how much I'll tie up in any security relative to their daily/5-day trade volumes).

I'm not going to attempt to guess what trading profit we'll make each week.  I'm confident we WILL make a trading profit - but really can't say how large/small it will be.  Remember, also that even if we make a trading profit it can be wiped out by LTC rising vs BTC.  Of course the converse also applies - that profit can be enhanced (or loss diminished) by LTC falling vs BTC.  Swap LTC/BTC in the previous sentence if you like to think of your units as being worth BTC.

Not many units have been sold so far.  That was entirely expected :

1.  I have no track record,
2.  I didn't even make a token effort to claim not to be a scammer (I believe such claims to be valueless - both scammers and non-scammers will say they aren't a scammer, so them saying it adds no information assisting anyone else to assess them).
3.  I'm not actively promoting the fund in the main securities forum or in my signature.
4.  I'm keeping details of what securities I trade hidden.  There's a good reason for it - but many investors (including me) are wary of black-box operations.
5.  I'm not paying dividends - many investors like these.  Personally I prefer growth - but to each his own.

A slow start, giving me time to explain things to investors, iron out any glitches in my systems etc makes perfect sense - so please don't panic if you're one of the few current investors but don't see anyone else investing.  All the time the fund stays tiny, your units should grow at a far better rate than when it gets larger.  Do bear in mind that from MY perspective growth (to a certain point) is good even if it diminishes the percentage returns to you - my fee is based on the amount of profit not the percentage of profit.  This divergency of interests is mitagted by my holding units myself - where if more units are issued I MUST make more profit or my fee stays the same and my earnings on my personal units decreases.

Thanks for investing (those who did).  Thanks for at least considering investing (those who didn't but read the thread).

I won't be doing a whole lot of trading tomorrow (got a busy day) - but will obviously have bids/asks out and check them a few times during the day.  Will be around a few hours now to answer any questions anyone has.

EXPLANATION OF SPREADSHEET

Most of the spreadsheet should be obvious - but in case not, here's what every item on it is.  Values in Black (other than percentages) were manually entered.  Values in green are calculated.

At the top is the current LTC/BTC exchange rate - as this fund is valued in LTC but mainly holds BTC-denominated assets, this exchange rate has a massive impact on the fund's value.

Next we have a list of what assets are currently held in currency (LTC or BTC).  For each item it is valued in both LTC and BTC.

The balances in LTC and BTC are given for the BTC-E exchange.  These will usually be zero (in fact there's some tiny amounts in there) - but there may be occasions where funds happen to be being moved between exchanges when the weekly report is prepared.

Next is the balance in BTC on GLBSE
Then the balance in LTC on LTC Global.

Do remember that this is primarily a day-trading operation.  That 58% of the fund is in BTC on GLBSE does NOT mean that the cash is sitting idle - in fact over 10 BTC of it is committed to buy orders at present.

After the currencies section, we have our GLBSE holdings.  Only long-term (i.e. intentionally being held for more than a day or two) securities are displayed here. You'll notice some hidden rows after ASICMINER - those contain the other securities we current hold (and some rows are for securities we've recently held but no longer do).  For long-term securities the general rule is that I use the 5-day average on GLBSE.  That valuei s currently lower than the 0.11 in my spreadsheet.  Why?  Because there are bid orders up into which I could sell the ASICMINER shares right now for .11 - so their value has to be at least that.

Next we have out LTC-GLOBAL holdings.  The comments about GLBSE apply here as well - other than that the 7-day average rather than 5-day one is used by default.  Again, the LTC-GLOBAL shares could be sold for 73.1 - so that is used as their value rather than the (slightly lower) 7-day average.

We then have the total for LTC and BTC denominated holdings and a grand total.

Now for the data below all that obvious stuff:

Units Authorised : This is the number of units I am authorised to sell to the public (an arbitrarily large number of units was created so that there'll never be a need to make more).  At present I am allowed to issue up to 2500 units in total.

Units Outstanding : This is the number of units held by investors (including my own personal account on LTC-GLOBAL).

NAV/UNIT (in LTC then BTC) : This is total value of the fund divided by the number of outstanding units - it represents what each unit is backed by in assets.

OLD HWM : This is the previous 'High Water Mark' - the value/unit above which management fees are payable.  The fund started off selling units at 10.0 - so that is the base from which profit is measured this week.

Adj NAV : This is the value per unit discounted by the management fee which would be taken at the end of the current week.  It represents what each unit would be worth to an investor if I took any fees due to me, sold all assets at their current valuation then shared out the proceeds (in fact this slightly underestimates the value - as we'll see later).

The columns below that showing various percentages of NAV or NAV/U are used by me in pricing my Bids and Asks so as to protect existing investors' equity without grossly overcharging new investors or allowing us to be too easily exploited if the exchange-rate suddenly swings.

Man fee (Units) calculates how many units I am entitled to as my fee for the current period's trading.  That value this week is 2.6.  According to the contract that gets rounded down - so my fee for this week is 2 units which will shortly be transferred from the asset's account to my personal one.

OK, time for the first weekly report.

I'll post a screen-shot of the fund's spreadsheet - then explain what everything in it means.  Going to do the explanation in a second post - so I can make sure the image displays properly before explaining it.

Subscribed

Current LTC/BTC exchange rate 0.00382.  Still not much volume around that price so it could change in either direction fairly quickly.

Adjusted NAV/U : 10.45434

Ask going up at 10.6,  Bid at 10.25

I might get some of these since I do a bit of spread trading on glbse too 

Meh - the spreadsheet screenshot will have to wait - will be doing 1st weekly report tomorrow anyway and posting one then.

I'm actually still around - got bogged down in other stuff.  Give me 10 minutes and I'll see if I can upload shot of the spreadsheet.

I can't show what shares are held - for two reasons:

1.  I day-trade, not invest: within a few hours of any details being released that information will usually be out of date.  Seeing a list of securities we hold at a specific point in time doesn't tell you anything about how I rate those shares, nor does it actually prove that we DO have those shares.
2.  I don't want to give away to competitors details of which shares I trade on - only a small percentage of shares on GLBSE meet my (pretty tight) criteria to invest in.

There's some pretty specific things I do which work pretty well - they only work on securities with certain characteristics.  Some of those characteristics are fairly obvious - e.g. they aren't obvious scams (which could vanish any time leaving me holding worhtless junk), they trade within a fairly well defined range etc.  Some are a lot less obvious.  It's not in my (or my investors') interest for me to provide information which would assist the competition (yes there IS competition - though it's not from other funds afaik).

Let me give an old example of the sort of thing I do - then maybe you'll be able to see why I really can't give detailed info on trades.

The below is an extract from a set oftrade done BEFORE the fund started.  You can likely find the trades in the GLBSE twitter feed - and i'm fine with nefario confirming the trades listed were done by me, in the order listed with no other trades in between.  These trades weren't particularly profitable - but as a proof-of-concept they did the job.

buy   23/09/2012 21:48   0.11399999   ASICMINER   34
sell   23/09/2012 21:42   0.11900001   ASICMINER   10
sell   23/09/2012 21:40   0.11900001   ASICMINER   11
sell   23/09/2012 21:38   0.11900001   ASICMINER   13
buy   23/09/2012 21:34   0.11399999   ASICMINER   46
sell   23/09/2012 21:32   0.11850001   ASICMINER   9
sell   23/09/2012 21:30   0.11850001   ASICMINER   11
sell   23/09/2012 21:28   0.11850001   ASICMINER   12
sell   23/09/2012 21:26   0.11850001   ASICMINER   14
buy   23/09/2012 21:24   0.11399999   ASICMINER   36
sell   23/09/2012 21:20   0.11850001   ASICMINER   11
sell   23/09/2012 21:16   0.11850001   ASICMINER   11
sell   23/09/2012 21:13   0.11850001   ASICMINER   13

What you see there is me selling shares at one price then buying back the same shares at a lower price.  In fact it was the SAME shares being traded back and forht with me making a profit every cycle.  The actual tarding went on for quite a lot longer in simialr fashion - with one share sniped by some third-party plus a buy at wrong price due (I guess) to a mislick.

The other side of those trades was a remarkably dumb bot - that always undercut asks by 1 satoshi and overbid bids by 1 satoshi.

There was a gap in trading range on asci miner including from .113 - .1195.  So all I did was:

Put up a bid of 1 share at .1185.

(Wait for him to outbid me.
Sell to his order.
Cancel my bid.) Looped until he stopped putting up decent quantities


Put up an ASK at .114
wait for him to undercut me.
Buy all my shares back from him.

Rinse and repeat.

After a bunch of these cycles the bot must have hit some stop-loss and halted.  It cam back again next day and did the same thing lol.  It was SO dumb that before putting up at ask at .114 i'd put up a BID at .11399999 - and the dumb thing would STILL undercut me, selling into my order so he landed with the trade fee.

That bot no longer operates on ASCIMINER (that share is now tricky to trade in for a few reasons - though proft can be made in an entirely different way).  It DID, for a while, contine trading but only doing 1 share at a time (which makes the strategy I used too risky).

Not you've seen the above, hopefully you can see why I absolutely can't afford to identify which securities I'm active on at a particular time.  At present my bot-exploloitation is largely on hold - GLBSE's way too slow to do it manually and I've yet to finish off my own bot (which, as well as monitoring my trades, executing stop losses etc will also be able to be set up to strip cash off other peopke's badly designed bots).

There's other types of trades I do (which require far less effort) - and a few more things that will come online if/when the fund grows a bit.

Now I'm definitely off to bed.

Oh - the initial transfer of assets was purely BTC + asicminer shares.  The asicminer shares I transferred in ( a dozen or so from memory) sold for more than I valued them for the first day of trading (I've since bought and sold more of those as well).  I did have some other junk shares (e.g. DMC which I only bought so I could state I was a shareholder in the thread) - those I liquidated and got a handful more ATF shares with the BTC from their sale.

Y U NO release a detailed report?

I guess you track NAV using a spreadsheet of some sort, so just releasing that spreadsheet makes a lot of sense.

I think it's important to release it sooner rather than later because you started with non-transparent transfer of assets.

It's great that you post NAV updates, but since we don't know what holdings consist of they might as well be bullshit.

(It's worth noting that contract and communication makes a really good impression, like it's done by a pro. So I'm parking little spare money I have in LTC-ATF.)

Exchange rate's been all over the place today - it finally seems to be settling down a bit, though there's little support on the sell side (so a rise is more likely than a fall in my view).

LTC/BTC Exchange rate at 0.00377

Adjusted NAV/U at 10.5612 (NAV/U before projected fee adjustment 10.6236).

Will be leaving Asks up overnight at 10.75 and Bids at 10.1

Would recommend against buying in if exchange rate gos much over 0.00385.  Would never recommend selling to my overnight bids unless either LTC/BTC rate really tanks or you're absolutely desperate.  Were I staying online ask would be 10.68 and bid 10.3 (meaning the first few investors could cash out for a 3% profit less 0.4% fees if they chose).

Right now LTC/BTC exchange ate is at about 0.00382 - but there's no volume either side for quite a way, so that's likely to vary a lot during the day.

Adjusted NAV/U is 10.1226 at that exchange rate.

Will be putting up Bids at 9.65 and Asks at 10.4 - the spread is wider than usual as the exchange rate is far from steady.  Rates will, of course, change throughout the day as the exchange rate moves and trading occurs.

Someone's been seriously buying up LTC - whether an attempt to manipulate the rate, laundering or what I don't know.  But there's essentially no volume at pressent from 0.0036 right up to well over 0.004.  If I had to estimate a current exchange it'd be about 0.004 - but it could end the night significantly either side of that.

There's no doubt that this will majorly reduce the value of LTC-ATF units (expressed in LTC) - as majority of funds/investments are in BTC or BTC denominated securities.

Assuming a rate of 0.004 then current NAV/U is 9.699 LTC.

To see how the exchange rate move (of over 10%) impacted NAV/U the NAV/U if rate was same as at start of day (0.00356) would have been 10.57888013.

Obviously not the start I wanted for the fund - but it was always an explicit risk of an LTC-denominated fund whose investments were mainly in BTC-denominated securities.  Whether the exhcange-rate rise sticks remains to be seen - but with the rate in flux as at present I can't leave a Bid-wall up overnight at any reasonable value.

An Ask is being left at 10.5 - that becomes good value if the rate returns to below 0.00365.

Turns out that whoever bought the handful of units up at 10.25 did well for themself.

LTC/BTC rate is now 0.00356

Adjusted NAV/U is now 10.3129

Adjusted NAV/U is the standard NAV/U modified to what it would actually be if my 10% management fee were deducted.  Bids/Asks are based around this - so anyone buying in doesn't pay for "profit" that wouldn't actually end up being theirs.  And also so anyone cashing out doesn't get to take profit that they wouldn't keep if they stayed in.  Management fee is NOT actually taken from the fund until the next report of course.  NAV/U before adjustment was 10.34772.

Bids will be put up at 10.15 and Asks at 10.36 (Adj NAV/U+0.5%) shortly after this post is made.  Those will be adjusted throughout the day as profit/loss and exchange-rate changes occur.