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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 19131. (Read 26710147 times)

newbie
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
^
But it was so vague. If i remember right, core promised to work on stuff, and miners promised to stick to core if core did what it promised. No way for either side to cry foul when the other backs out, due to (intentionally?) loose wording.
Got a link to that pdf?
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
...
Amstrong had another similar blog the day of the round table.
...

Round Table Original or Round Table Classic?

the first one?
...
the one where they pretended to reach consensus


I remember, i was  saying " take notice of poeple speaking out against the consensus, it's likely they are stupid "

the next day Amstrong had a blog post.

Was surprised (i know, i know, "still?" Must be a learning disability...) by how seriously people took that. Like me, they just never learn...
>80% hashing power, devs and CEO's all agreed

it is still seriously serious proposal which we are going ahead with despite what Amstrong blog says.
legendary
Activity: 3948
Merit: 11416
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
28 million in leveraged longs on BFX. Shorts barely changed.  This is a dangerously unstable situation.  Every one of those longs have to close at some point, either at a profit or a loss. It amounts to massive overhead resistance.

Where the hell is the pump gonna come from? Halving is priced in. SegWit is priced in even though it may not happen or happen on a longer time frame than expected.  Global economic stability? Bitcoin lost 5% in a day, hardly a safe haven asset, especially given the current governance situation.

Bitcoin is a honeybadger, so price may go up, but if it does, it will be in spite of fundamentals, not because of them.  There can be no sustainable rise without a permanent scaling solution.

The most important part is that 8 M$ are new longs opened since 21st February, when price was 450$, so they are underwater now, and more down could trigger a long squeeze.

I noticed that.  One thing I do notice is that since the great 2013 bubble, there has never been two consecutive short squeezes or long squeezes. They ALWAYS happen short, long, short, long. The last one was the short squeeze to $502.  The longs are due.  Still, patterns continue until they don't. 


Another ridiculous application of a decent theory.  There maybe long short long short, but if you have not seen a long squeeze since $502, you seem to be really selective with your analysis... so selective that it makes little to no sense.   Tongue
newbie
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
...
Amstrong had another similar blog the day of the round table.
...

Round Table Original or Round Table Classic?

the first one?
...
the one where they pretended to reach consensus


I remember, i was  saying " take notice of poeple speaking out against the consensus, it's likely they are stupid "

the next day Amstrong had a blog post.

Was surprised (i know, i know, "still?" Must be a learning disability...) by how seriously people took that. Like me, they just never learn...
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
Oh look another buy opt coming up!

i'm hitting buy Buy BUY!!!!! at 395  Grin

legendary
Activity: 3948
Merit: 11416
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
If you didn't get in at 382 you missed the bottom.


difficult to time these matters exactly, especially if you are trading somewhat manually. 

I was sleeping when $382 took place, and I believe that my bitcoin alarm was set for $393 or something like that.  The alarm went off, and the volume was a bit low, so I believe several minutes took place before I was able to get sufficiently oriented.. blah blah blah...

I ended up buying some at $392 and some at $389...   

Even though I saw a pretty decent sign that bottom had been in (that is nearly 3k BTC sold on stamp within a few minutes), I'm not a balls to the wall kind of investor, so I bought a pretty decent quantity with my available fiat; however, I saved a bit of the fiat just in case we were witnessing (not for the first time), a false bottom.
legendary
Activity: 3948
Merit: 11416
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
28 million in leveraged longs on BFX. Shorts barely changed.  This is a dangerously unstable situation.  Every one of those longs have to close at some point, either at a profit or a loss. It amounts to massive overhead resistance.

Where the hell is the pump gonna come from? Halving is priced in. SegWit is priced in even though it may not happen or happen on a longer time frame than expected.  Global economic stability? Bitcoin lost 5% in a day, hardly a safe haven asset, especially given the current governance situation.

Bitcoin is a honeybadger, so price may go up, but if it does, it will be in spite of fundamentals, not because of them.  There can be no sustainable rise without a permanent scaling solution.

I do believe segwit is not priced in, if anything word of segwit causing forks on the testnet has poeple selling ( which is a silly reason to sell, nothing ever works perfectly first time around ) But segwit will likely be priced in way after the fact. I will be looking to sell when segwit is released, in fear of it causing a complete mess, after a few weeks of it working fine, and we really do get a 1.75X capacity increase from it. i will buy back.

if it causes a mess which devs need to clean up, i could see price half overnight, and with that the mining industry will crumble, and with that bitcoin will crumble. implementing thousands of lines of code, and asking other node oppeterater  ( blockchain.info wallets and the like ) to write some code to acomadate segwit, has HUGE downside risks, to much for me to just HODL and pray for the best.


but if we see segwit give us more then 50% capacity increase and then the 2MB HF is a go, we'll have 4X more block space this time next year, if we somehow manage to fill these 4X bigger blocks totally full again by this time next year I expect price to be at least double what it is now or at most 10x bubble like rise and crash. price has always been highly correlated with TX.



Actually, I think this is a really fair analysis.

There are some uncertainties with seg wit.  Oh yeah, it seems like a really great idea, yet like you said problems in the testnet causes some uncertainties concerning whether fixes can be made and whether problems can be identified sufficiently and whether it accomplishes all or most of what it is billed to accomplish without causing various unexpected downsides.

And, problems could cause some delays in the actual deployment of seg wit into the real bitcoin space with real world applications built upon it.

Because I take a lot of the FUD with a large grain of salt, the upside of seg wit seems to be much more likely than the downside of seg wit... .. but until it is actually deployed into the wild, we will not know for sure regarding whether it is meeting or exceeding expectations or turns out to be a major disappointment (as some of the FUDsters seem inclined to suggest as a real and likely possibility).





legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
...
Amstrong had another similar blog the day of the round table.
...

Round Table Original or Round Table Classic?

the first one?
...
the one where they pretended to reach consensus


I remember, i was  saying " take notice of poeple speaking out against the consensus, it's likely they are stupid "

the next day Amstrong had a blog post.
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
...
Amstrong had another similar blog the day of the round table.
...

Round Table Original or Round Table Classic?
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner

OMG, he discovered big font and colors!

BTW, Amstrong's blog is from yesterday. Price started retreating three days ago. Perhaps the correct causality is

price retreats --> Armstrong speaks

Amstrong had another similar blog the day of the round table.

hes been very vocal about this for a long time.
legendary
Activity: 3948
Merit: 11416
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
28 million in leveraged longs on BFX. Shorts barely changed.  This is a dangerously unstable situation.  Every one of those longs have to close at some point, either at a profit or a loss. It amounts to massive overhead resistance.

Where the hell is the pump gonna come from? Halving is priced in. SegWit is priced in even though it may not happen or happen on a longer time frame than expected.  Global economic stability? Bitcoin lost 5% in a day, hardly a safe haven asset, especially given the current governance situation.

Bitcoin is a honeybadger, so price may go up, but if it does, it will be in spite of fundamentals, not because of them.  There can be no sustainable rise without a permanent scaling solution.


Sometimes you make a lot of sense; however, this is not one of those times.


Get real.


If price were in a consolidation period for a few days, then of course it makes sense to attempt to weigh price direction in terms of which way the bets are stacked; however, in this case, price just suffered a test of $400, and that test took a whole hell-a-va lot of coins to move the price (on stamp) from $402 to $382 (actually about 3000 BTC on stamp within a few minutes).  That was no sustainable drop, but instead a test of the bottom that has proven that it takes a whole hellava lot of coins to push below $400 and we are currently back above $400...... ...

On the other hand, I don't really know for sure.. but to me, it seems that the bottom has been tested, and we are back on our way up in bitcoin.  In any event, the odds seems greater to go up from here (5% or 10%), rather than going down.  On the other hand, we could languish in this price area for a few days, and if that happens, then we will need to reconsider our predictions a that point, including considering the extent to which longs (or shorts are stacking up) and other potential tests of support or resistance.. and how much volume of BTC is employed to engage in such tests.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
but you can always fork off and play with eth dapps derps.

ETH: Price > 10x in 2 months Smiley
BTC: Keeps tanking, predictably Sad

Man, you must feel AWFUL Cheesy
And if you even decided to invest in Ethereum, you can hope to see tears once the whales start dumping their coins and dropping the price back down to where it's supposed to be, and feeling bad about not sticking with bitcoin.

Bad as the tears around here, when BTC started tanking at $1,200?
Man, would'a cried my eyes out, myself, because such not P&D Sad

Yes in retrospect we recognize $1200 as an inflated highpoint... but hardly a pump and dump to take nearly a year to force the price down to below $200 with considerable amounts of capital used in order to achieve such objective.

Actually, there was considerable amounts of capital used in both directions (the pump and the dump of bitcoin)... We will see whether Ether can do another 10X... after the latest 10x... and that would surely be impressive if it were capable of such (which seems very low likelihood).  Bitcoin seems to be in a much better position for a 10X (at this time) as compared with Ether doing another 10x at its current price point.

Another 10x?! You mean "and blow Bitcoin right out of the water"?

You do understand that 10x * 10x is 100x, correct? Making ETH market cap higher than BTC by, roughly, a third?
The improbability of this sort of thing is something many Bitcoin enthusiasts fail to grasp Undecided

Lowered Expectations



~ time passes ~



~ time passes ~

Yep, third month of 2016, no $500 Sad
Next Coindesk poll: 50% of Bitcoin Experts Believe Bitcoin Will Be Worth Over $275 by 2017
Prob'ly miss that by a shitload, per usual.
hero member
Activity: 737
Merit: 500

OMG, he discovered big font and colors!

BTW, Amstrong's blog is from yesterday. Price started retreating three days ago. Perhaps the correct causality is

price retreats --> Armstrong speaks
legendary
Activity: 3948
Merit: 11416
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
but you can always fork off and play with eth dapps derps.

ETH: Price > 10x in 2 months Smiley
BTC: Keeps tanking, predictably Sad

Man, you must feel AWFUL Cheesy
And if you even decided to invest in Ethereum, you can hope to see tears once the whales start dumping their coins and dropping the price back down to where it's supposed to be, and feeling bad about not sticking with bitcoin.

Bad as the tears around here, when BTC started tanking at $1,200?
Man, would'a cried my eyes out, myself, because such not P&D Sad

Yes in retrospect we recognize $1200 as an inflated highpoint... but hardly a pump and dump to take nearly a year to force the price down to below $200 with considerable amounts of capital used in order to achieve such objective.

Actually, there was considerable amounts of capital used in both directions (the pump and the dump of bitcoin)... We will see whether Ether can do another 10X... after the latest 10x... and that would surely be impressive if it were capable of such (which seems very low likelihood).  Bitcoin seems to be in a much better position for a 10X (at this time) as compared with Ether doing another 10x at its current price point.
legendary
Activity: 3948
Merit: 11416
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
but you can always fork off and play with eth dapps derps.

ETH: Price > 10x in 2 months Smiley
BTC: Keeps tanking, predictably Sad

Man, you must feel AWFUL Cheesy


Yes.  Factually, ETH did 10X in 2 months...   but bitcoin did not tank.  It is relatively flat in two months within a range of about $352 to $450... and currently within about the middle of that range..

Not exactly "tanking" and not exactly in any kind of "predictable" manner because there have been  some fairly decent ups and downs in the past couple of months in bitcoinlandia.
legendary
Activity: 1320
Merit: 1007
Core has a scaling roadmap to make bitcoin scale far beyond what is capable with block increases. Who told you that they consider scaling a bad thing or that a fee market is their first priority?

With fees at 0.00$ to 0.05$, being ~1% of the block reward, there is no meaningful fee market to discuss about. There is definitely a mechanism where you can bypass the queue by a higher fee, and in this sense it is a market, but the volume of this market is so tiny that it doesn't even register compared to what subsidy does. Miners could be mining empty blocks and it wouldn't affect their pocket negatively. That's how insignificant it is.

If devs push for highers fees => "ohhh those fuckers want to exclude the poor guy"
If devs allow for more space/tx abundance at near-zero fees => "ohhh they are idiots, this attracts attacks, it can't work for the long-term sustainability of bitcoin and bitcoin mining" etc etc.
If devs don't interefere => "oh they are sitting on their ass doing nothing and their incompetence has created these problems"

Whatever they do, either way, or whatever they don't do, you can find a reason to attack them. This type of thinking can be evidenced by writings such as BillyJoe's who, a few months ago, was saying "ohhh I don't want to pay higher fees, I bought my right to transact when I bought my coins" and then, when commenting on the Lightning network, he was spreading FUD about how will the miners get paid if the LN can do so many transactions at low fees, and that miners should get more fees, otherwise bitcoin will be in problem etc etc.

Whatever the situation => you can use it to attack the devs. And this is happening all day.

Low fees? Fuck the devs.
High fees? Fuck the devs.
The devs are staying out of the argument? Fuck the devs again.

Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs

...all day long...

Why?

Because the issues here are not technical. They have the facade of technical disagreements but at their root, they are a way to undermine confidence and promote a governance coup.

{Applause.gif}

Don't forget:
Devs communicate?  Fuck them for manipulating public opinion.
Devs don't communicate?  Fuck them for ignoring human dignity.

Let's make a list of everyone who has been here long enough to know better, but is nevertheless pushing the false "ZOMG SEGWIT CAUSES CHAIN FORKZ!11!!" narrative in yet another attempt to manufacture panic.

And then you have people like HostFat, who tell people to boycott Core/Blockstream/theymos yet still runs their code and posts on their forums.

legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1116

We need unanimous consensus with this fucking idiot!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!

Geeeez!!! I can't believe I invested money in this shit!!! GOD DAMN!!!!

He's never concealed who or what turns him. We've all got our wee idiosyncrasies.

Wee?

One of the two devs at the wheel of this shitshow has renounced science!

To be fair, I doubt he's renounced all of science. Just the last 5 or 6 centuries, probably. The bunk ages. Cool
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
i'm canadian so i couldn't calculate the fee properly.
You're making my sides hurt dude.
legendary
Activity: 1778
Merit: 1008
the price keeps on falling, i hope that soon everything will change and the price will rocket to the sky, also i guess that ethereum price rise is just some kind of a pump and bitcoin is the only crypto that has the bright future

actually, it seems as though the most recent drop is over and the price is actually climbing again. looking at the 1 hour stamp chart, it's been averaging an increase the past few hours.
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