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Topic: Eligius: 0% Fee BTC, 105% PPS NMC, No registration, CPPSRB - page 265. (Read 1061894 times)

full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100
One advantage of PPLNS is that you don't have to wait around potentially forever to find out how much you're going to make.

Yep, you immediately know if you made nothing at all. Wink

And can abandon the address and stop monitoring it instead of keeping it around forever because you might get a few satoshi some time between now and the end of the universe.

So that 4.72% (with transaction fees you'd get 102.72%) is solely due to orphans? That seems like a very high orphan rate.

I'm.... not quite sure what these numbers are exactly?  Huh  You can see for yourself from the stats that just based on counts Eligius's long-term orphan rate is just over 2%.  Factoring in the subsidy halving the earnings-based orphan rate is lower, at almost exactly 2%. (Our orphan rate decreased a bit after changing datacenters after the subsidy halving)  This is pretty normal, and actually quite low.  Look at Ghash.io's orphan rate... was up at almost 7% at one point.

Well, if you add in transaction fees, which apparently you're doing, then 100% is quite possible.

Sure, txn fees *can* push it to 100%... but on average they do not, as there is less than a 2% increase in block reward due to txn fees on average.

My bad. I misread https://blockchain.info/stats .
legendary
Activity: 1223
Merit: 1006
The expected long term reward with any pool reward system, unless the pool is somehow subsidizing orphans (which means it probably has a fee in excess of the orphan % anyway...) is 100% PPS minus orphan % minus fees (if any).

Are you assuming the pool will last forever?

No, I simply made a mathematical statement of fact.

Quote
At that point, if there are any shelved shares, then Eligius has paid out less than 100% PPS (including transaction fees) minus orphan %. Those shelved shares are never paid.

As I said.


I want to point out that I read anth0ny's "paid out less than 100% PPS (including transaction fees) minus orphan %. Those shelved shares are never paid." statement as the pool paying less than 100% already somehow and in addition subtracting orphan %, which isn't the case.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
The expected long term reward with any pool reward system, unless the pool is somehow subsidizing orphans (which means it probably has a fee in excess of the orphan % anyway...) is 100% PPS minus orphan % minus fees (if any).

Are you assuming the pool will last forever?

No, I simply made a mathematical statement of fact.

Quote
At that point, if there are any shelved shares, then Eligius has paid out less than 100% PPS (including transaction fees) minus orphan %. Those shelved shares are never paid.

As I said.
legendary
Activity: 1223
Merit: 1006
For the expected value, I am not sure. I'll cede this one to WK or un_ordinateur. Over time it should be 100% PPS

Maybe if the block reward never went down, and the difficulty never changed...

Neither of these things matter for calculating % shares rewarded in terms of maximum PPS, since the formula for 100% PPS at any given time is (block_reward/difficulty)*work_difficulty.

Sure it matters. The people at the very end of the shelved share list have virtually no chance of ever getting paid for those shares, in large part because the block rewards keep going down and the difficulty keeps going up.

The expected long term reward with any pool reward system, unless the pool is somehow subsidizing orphans (which means it probably has a fee in excess of the orphan % anyway...) is 100% PPS minus orphan % minus fees (if any).

Are you assuming the pool will last forever?

Eventually Eligius will cease to exist. Probably before Bitcoin ceases to exist, and probably during our lifetimes for that matter.

At that point, if there are any shelved shares, then Eligius has paid out less than 100% PPS (including transaction fees) minus orphan %. Those shelved shares are never paid.

You apparently are not understanding why the shelved shares persist for any extended period in the first place.  Those shares statistically are the "minus orphan %", not in addition to it, and it is to be expected that not all of them will ever be paid, barring some ridiculous amount of luck. This doesn't change that the long term (6+ months) variance in % shares rewarded wont average out to roughly 100% minus orphan %.
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100
For the expected value, I am not sure. I'll cede this one to WK or un_ordinateur. Over time it should be 100% PPS

Maybe if the block reward never went down, and the difficulty never changed...

Neither of these things matter for calculating % shares rewarded in terms of maximum PPS, since the formula for 100% PPS at any given time is (block_reward/difficulty)*work_difficulty.

Sure it matters. The people at the very end of the shelved share list have virtually no chance of ever getting paid for those shares, in large part because the block rewards keep going down and the difficulty keeps going up.

The expected long term reward with any pool reward system, unless the pool is somehow subsidizing orphans (which means it probably has a fee in excess of the orphan % anyway...) is 100% PPS minus orphan % minus fees (if any).

Are you assuming the pool will last forever?

Eventually Eligius will cease to exist. Probably before Bitcoin ceases to exist, and probably during our lifetimes for that matter.

At that point, if there are any shelved shares, then Eligius has paid out less than 100% PPS (including transaction fees) minus orphan %. Those shelved shares are never paid.
legendary
Activity: 1223
Merit: 1006
One advantage of PPLNS is that you don't have to wait around potentially forever to find out how much you're going to make.

Yep, you immediately know if you made nothing at all. Wink

So that 4.72% (with transaction fees you'd get 102.72%) is solely due to orphans? That seems like a very high orphan rate.

I'm.... not quite sure what these numbers are exactly?  Huh  You can see for yourself from the stats that just based on counts Eligius's long-term orphan rate is just over 2%.  Factoring in the subsidy halving the earnings-based orphan rate is lower, at almost exactly 2%. (Our orphan rate decreased a bit after changing datacenters after the subsidy halving)  This is pretty normal, and actually quite low.  Look at Ghash.io's orphan rate... was up at almost 7% at one point.

Well, if you add in transaction fees, which apparently you're doing, then 100% is quite possible.

Sure, txn fees *can* push it to 100%... but on average they do not, as there is less than a 2% increase in block reward due to txn fees on average.
donator
Activity: 2058
Merit: 1007
Poor impulse control.
Well, it's not possible to mine forever. If nothing else, eventually people will stop making transactions, and eventually the block reward will go to zero.
Maybe not forever, but if Bitcoin mining stops in our lifetimes, it means Bitcoin was a failure.

Yeah, but the chance that people who have been continuously mining at Eligius since the start of CPPSRB will ever get 100% shares rewarded during our lifetimes is quite low. Ignoring transaction fees, it's probably immeasurably low.

I'd like to see your analysis. I'm not sure you are correct.
newbie
Activity: 3
Merit: 0
I feel its worth mentioning that short term in my eyes as far as this goes is < a couple of months, and long term being 6+ months which is enough to iron out the variance for the most part in this case.  I can pretty much guarantee that if you mine a PPLNS pool (or any pool for that matter) for more than a few months that you will not have actually paid earnings >= 100% PPS.
Your bet needs a maximum limit on variance. With a high enough variance, it's possible to get >= 100% PPS for centuries if you're lucky...

6661.74 Th/s 5661.74 Th/s changes unceasingly, cannot understand?
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100
Well, it's not possible to mine forever. If nothing else, eventually people will stop making transactions, and eventually the block reward will go to zero.
Maybe not forever, but if Bitcoin mining stops in our lifetimes, it means Bitcoin was a failure.

Yeah, but the chance that people who have been continuously mining at Eligius since the start of CPPSRB will ever get 100% shares rewarded during our lifetimes is quite low. Ignoring transaction fees, it's probably immeasurably low.
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1186
I feel its worth mentioning that short term in my eyes as far as this goes is < a couple of months, and long term being 6+ months which is enough to iron out the variance for the most part in this case.  I can pretty much guarantee that if you mine a PPLNS pool (or any pool for that matter) for more than a few months that you will not have actually paid earnings >= 100% PPS.
Your guarantee needs a maximum limit on variance. With a high enough variance, it's possible to get >= 100% PPS for centuries if you're lucky...
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100
PPLNS variance is higher than CPPSRB.  The fact that PPLNS can overpay shares is not an advantage, it just adds variance.

One advantage of PPLNS is that you don't have to wait around potentially forever to find out how much you're going to make.

CPPSRB irons out variance as much as possible, with the pool-wide reward average on Eligius sitting right around 98%... which is expected due to orphans.  Keep in mind that Eligius has no fee, if a pool has a fee it is taken off of actual earnings, not expected earnings, so earnings would be ~98% minus the fee.

So that 4.72% (with transaction fees you'd get 102.72%) is solely due to orphans? That seems like a very high orphan rate.

Transaction fees are paid towards the share log to try to offset the losses to orphaned blocks, but it is insufficient to make long term 100% PPS viable currently.  It does however, help get everyone closer to 100% than normally possible.

Keep in mind that 100% PPS is not statistically possible long term with *any* reward system mainly due to orphaned blocks.

Well, if you add in transaction fees, which apparently you're doing, then 100% is quite possible.
legendary
Activity: 1223
Merit: 1006
I feel its worth mentioning that short term in my eyes as far as this goes is < a couple of months, and long term being 6+ months which is enough to iron out the variance for the most part in this case.  I can pretty much guarantee that if you mine a PPLNS pool (or any pool for that matter) for more than a few months that you will not have actually paid earnings >= 100% PPS.
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1186
Well, it's not possible to mine forever. If nothing else, eventually people will stop making transactions, and eventually the block reward will go to zero.
Maybe not forever, but if Bitcoin mining stops in our lifetimes, it means Bitcoin was a failure.
legendary
Activity: 1223
Merit: 1006
For the expected value, I am not sure. I'll cede this one to WK or un_ordinateur. Over time it should be 100% PPS

Maybe if the block reward never went down, and the difficulty never changed...

Neither of these things matter for calculating % shares rewarded in terms of maximum PPS, since the formula for 100% PPS at any given time is (block_reward/difficulty)*work_difficulty.

The expected long term reward with any pool reward system, unless the pool is somehow subsidizing orphans (which means it probably has a fee in excess of the orphan % anyway...) is 100% PPS minus orphan % minus fees (if any).
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100
For the expected value, I am not sure. I'll cede this one to WK or un_ordinateur. Over time it should be 100% PPS

Maybe if the block reward never went down, and the difficulty never changed...
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100
One can see the CPPSRB as a modified PPLNS: Just like PPLNS, each time a block is found, Eligius goes back "n" shares and pays them. The difference is that in PPLNS, if the pool is lucky, some shares might be payed multiple times. In CPPSRB, once a shared is payed, it is removed, and can never be payed again; then if the pool is lucky, it simply goes even more furthe back until an unpayed share is found.

That makes it sound like CPPSRB miners are getting a raw deal. No chance of getting more than 100%, but a very real chance of getting less than 100%. As opposed to PPLNS where you might get more or less than 100%.

I wonder how one would go about calculating the expected value (assuming no block withholding).

The expected value if you mine forever is 100%, though orphans reduce payout relative to 100% PPS with any formula.

Well, it's not possible to mine forever. If nothing else, eventually people will stop making transactions, and eventually the block reward will go to zero.

But long before that, the chances of ever getting your deeply buried shares will for all intents and purposes be zero.

The expected value for some finite time is probably lower than PPLNS but the variance is also lower. Trade off.

But for, say, between now and block 6,929,999, how much lower? 2%? 5%? Doesn't seem like it's much more than that.
legendary
Activity: 1223
Merit: 1006
One can see the CPPSRB as a modified PPLNS: Just like PPLNS, each time a block is found, Eligius goes back "n" shares and pays them. The difference is that in PPLNS, if the pool is lucky, some shares might be payed multiple times. In CPPSRB, once a shared is payed, it is removed, and can never be payed again; then if the pool is lucky, it simply goes even more furthe back until an unpayed share is found.

That makes it sound like CPPSRB miners are getting a raw deal. No chance of getting more than 100%, but a very real chance of getting less than 100%. As opposed to PPLNS where you might get more or less than 100%.

I wonder how one would go about calculating the expected value (assuming no block withholding).

The expected value if you mine forever is 100%, though orphans reduce payout relative to 100% PPS with any formula.

The expected value for some finite time is probably lower than PPLNS but the variance is also lower. Trade off.


PPLNS variance is higher than CPPSRB.  The fact that PPLNS can overpay shares is not an advantage, it just adds variance.  CPPSRB irons out variance as much as possible, with the pool-wide reward average on Eligius sitting right around 98%... which is expected due to orphans.  Keep in mind that Eligius has no fee, if a pool has a fee it is taken off of actual earnings, not expected earnings, so earnings would be ~98% minus the fee.

Transaction fees are paid towards the share log to try to offset the losses to orphaned blocks, but it is insufficient to make long term 100% PPS viable currently.  It does however, help get everyone closer to 100% than normally possible.

Keep in mind that 100% PPS is not statistically possible long term with *any* reward system mainly due to orphaned blocks.
legendary
Activity: 1274
Merit: 1004
One can see the CPPSRB as a modified PPLNS: Just like PPLNS, each time a block is found, Eligius goes back "n" shares and pays them. The difference is that in PPLNS, if the pool is lucky, some shares might be payed multiple times. In CPPSRB, once a shared is payed, it is removed, and can never be payed again; then if the pool is lucky, it simply goes even more furthe back until an unpayed share is found.

That makes it sound like CPPSRB miners are getting a raw deal. No chance of getting more than 100%, but a very real chance of getting less than 100%. As opposed to PPLNS where you might get more or less than 100%.

I wonder how one would go about calculating the expected value (assuming no block withholding).
Less variance. No chance of getting paid out more than 100%, but a better chance of getting paid out that 100%. With PPLNS if you start mining during an unlucky time that revenue is just gone. You may make it up at a later date by mining during a lucky period, or you may not. Likewise with CPPSRB, if you start mining during an unlucky period you'll get paid less, but should the pool have a lucky period those shares that didn't get paid out in the past might get paid out in the future.

For the expected value, I am not sure. I'll cede this one to WK or un_ordinateur. Over time it should be 100% PPS, but I am not sure how orphaned blocks would affect that as a percentage. I also am not sure if the transaction fees are retained for pool expenses or if they are fed back into paying off shares.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
One can see the CPPSRB as a modified PPLNS: Just like PPLNS, each time a block is found, Eligius goes back "n" shares and pays them. The difference is that in PPLNS, if the pool is lucky, some shares might be payed multiple times. In CPPSRB, once a shared is payed, it is removed, and can never be payed again; then if the pool is lucky, it simply goes even more furthe back until an unpayed share is found.

That makes it sound like CPPSRB miners are getting a raw deal. No chance of getting more than 100%, but a very real chance of getting less than 100%. As opposed to PPLNS where you might get more or less than 100%.

I wonder how one would go about calculating the expected value (assuming no block withholding).

The expected value if you mine forever is 100%, though orphans reduce payout relative to 100% PPS with any formula.

The expected value for some finite time is probably lower than PPLNS but the variance is also lower. Trade off.
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100
One can see the CPPSRB as a modified PPLNS: Just like PPLNS, each time a block is found, Eligius goes back "n" shares and pays them. The difference is that in PPLNS, if the pool is lucky, some shares might be payed multiple times. In CPPSRB, once a shared is payed, it is removed, and can never be payed again; then if the pool is lucky, it simply goes even more furthe back until an unpayed share is found.

That makes it sound like CPPSRB miners are getting a raw deal. No chance of getting more than 100%, but a very real chance of getting less than 100%. As opposed to PPLNS where you might get more or less than 100%.

I wonder how one would go about calculating the expected value (assuming no block withholding).
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